Gre Argument Essays (1-50) 5r3j24

AMERICAN EDUCATION AIDS GRE - ANALYTICAL WRITING ABILITY MODEL ESSAYS ON ARGUMENTS (1 to 90)

GRE - ANALYTICAL WRITING ABILITY ANALYSIS OF ARGUMENTS MODEL ESSAYS 1 - 90 An essay analyzing an ‘Argument’ is easier to compose than one analyzing an ‘Issue’. This is because, in the case of an ‘Argument’, you have some concrete statements in front of you to analyze, and do not have to start from scratch. An ‘argument’ age will consist of some facts, some research findings or some opinions of experts followed by some conclusions or recommendations by the author of the argument. You must recognize each of these and must differentiate among them. You should write a critique of only the last, namely the ‘conclusions or recommendations’. You should not try to question the correctness or accuracy of the first three. In narrating each ‘Argument’, the question setters have deliberately incorporated two or three logical flaws in it. Their intention is to test whether you are capable of spotting these flaws and commenting on them logically. An analysis of the pool of 242 Arguments for GRE, released by Educational Testing Service, reveals that the types of logical flaws that are repeatedly encountered are JUST 14 in number. It is these 14 flaws which are incorporated in different contexts in different Argument topics. The types of these 14 logical flaws are: 1. Concluding that because Action A caused Result X a few years ago, a similar action A now will cause a similar result X. While analyzing an argument containing this flaw, you should point out that the relevant circumstances might have changed significantly in the last few years, and that the same action may not produce the same result now. In the context of the given narration, you should enumerate some of the possible ways in which the circumstances might have changed in the intervening years. 2. Comparing the achievement record of Company A in a particular year (say, 1995) with a better achievement record of Company B in some other year (say, 2001), and concluding that Company B is therefore more efficiently run than Company A. While analyzing such an argument, you could point out that the year 1995 was perhaps bad for all companies, and that Company B, if it had existed then, might have fared equally badly, or even worse, than Company A in that year. You should also point out that, if the achievement record of Company A for 2001 is available, it may perhaps be seen that Company A had done even better than Company B in 2001, and is therefore the more efficient of the two. You could also state that these two companies may be in two totally different types of industries and are not comparable at all on the basis of any single common parameter. You may give instances of difference in the nature of these two companies. 3. Concluding that, because Institution A (a college, university, school, town council, state, a magazine, a shop or a supermarket) had taken Action X (such as introducing a new syllabus, a new tax, a new regulation, introducing a new feature, reducing the price, stocking a new item etc.) successfully, Institution B should also take the same Action X to achieve the same result. You should point out that conditions are perhaps different in the two institutions, and an action which was successful in one may not prove to be equally successful in the other. In the context of the given narration, you should enumerate a few possible differences in characteristics between the two institutions.

American Education Aids - GRE Arguments - Model Essays

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4. Comparing the efficiency of two organizations A and B (such as two shops, two hospitals, two schools etc.), on the basis of just a single parameter (such as turnover, or the number of patients who had died, the number of prizes it won in a certain athletic competition etc.) and concluding that one is more efficient than the other. You should point out that a single parameter cannot be used to compare the overall relative efficiencies of two institutions, and that other factors (such as profit per employee, profit per dollar invested, or the number of terminally ill patients who had been itted, academic success of the students etc.) must also be taken into consideration. 5. Trying to apply the result of a statistical study in a limited area to a much wider area or, conversely, trying to apply the result of a nationwide statistical study to a limited local area. A variation of this is the extrapolation of the results of a study over a short period (say, six months) as valid for a much longer period (such as a decade or a century). In the former cases, you should point out that conditions in the local area may be significantly different from what is prevalent in the wider geographical area or vice versa, and that, therefore, the results of a particular statistical study may not be true in both. In the latter case, you should point out how conditions relevant to the conclusion may have changed over a period over a period of time. In the context of the given narration, you should enumerate a few possible differences in conditions that may arise. 6. Extrapolating the result of a statistical study on a small sample to a much bigger population, or to a totally unrelated group (for example, the result of a medical experiment on rats being applied without modification to human beings). You should point out that the sample that was studied was perhaps not typical of the general population, and that what was true of this biased sample may not be true of the total population. In the context of the given narration, you can enumerate a few possible ways in which the sample may differ from the general population. 7. Concluding from a percentage difference (such as 5% or 95%), but without the base figure, that the increase/decrease was either high or low. You should point out that an increase of 90% over a base figure of 100 will be much less than an increase of only 10% over a base figure of 10,000. Therefore, without knowing the base figure, it is not possible to judge whether the increase/decrease was high or low. You can cite such figures (whether 100, 1000, 10,000 or a million) in the context of the given narration. 8. Concluding that, because Action A will increase the sales revenue of a company, it will also increase its profit. Or, conversely, a decrease in sales turnover will result in a decrease in profit. You should point out that an increase in sales revenue need not always be attended by an increase in profit, or vice versa. The steps taken to increase the turnover, such as opening new branches, appointing new staff, incurring additional ment expenditure, increased transportation, increased interest on capital employed etc., may sometimes result in a decrease in overall profit. Similarly, austerity measures which will save considerable unnecessary expenditure may sometimes result in a reduction in turnover even while increasing the net profit. 9. Arriving at a certain conclusion on the basis of the opinion expressed by a high percentage (such as 90%) of ‘those who responded’ to a survey. You should ask the questions: What was the total population? What percentage among them were approached with a questionnaire or were interviewed? And what percent among these actually responded? If only 10% of a total population were approached, and only 10% among them responded, then the opinion in favor of the proposed conclusion is that of only 1% of the total population, and it cannot be considered to be reflective of that of the whole population. 10. Arriving at a conclusion on the basis of the opinion of, or experiments on, ‘many’, ‘several’, or ‘a number of’ persons or subjects, without actually quantifying these numbers. You must point out that these vague adjectives may mean any number (say, from 20 to 20,000) and that, unless they are specifically quantified, it is not possible to come to any reliable conclusion. 11. Concluding that because Event B followed Event A, Event B must have been caused by Event A. (This is known as a ‘causal relationship’ between A and B).


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You must point out that what caused Event B might have no relationship at all to Event A, but was something totally different. In the context of the given narration, you can enumerate some of the other probable causes for Event B. 12. Arriving at a conclusion on the assumption that the reported number (of a particular illness such as headache, an accident etc.) is the same as the actual number. You must point out that not everyone (who had that illness or who had been involved in an accident) might have reported for treatment at a hospital. In the context of the given narration, you may give possible reasons for their action. 13. Concluding that only one of Event A or Event B can happen under the given circumstances, without considering the possibility that both events can happen simultaneously. In such cases, you should, in the light of the given context, give examples of how both events can happen simultaneously. 14. Stating a possible outcome as an inevitable outcome. In the context of the given narration, you should point out how the project outcome may not materialize under certain other conditions. Every given Argument will contain two or three of the 14 types of flaws explained above, cleverly incorporated within the context of the given narration. These flaws may not be apparent to you during the first reading. When you read the narration again carefully, you should be able to spot them and comment on them as suggested above. Each ‘Argument’ topic has been carefully drafted by the question-setters, and every word or phrase in it has a specific reason for being there, and can help you to compose a cogent sentence or two in your essay. Each of the following model essays is a ‘first draft’ by the author and was composed within the given time limit of 30 minutes, so that it is truly representative of the type of essay that a bright candidate is expected to write for deserving the highest score of 6. You can obviously not compose essays before you sit for your GRE on each of the 242 topics given, nor can you memorize all the following essays and reproduce them in the test. On the other hand, you should not just read the following essays a few times and then imagine that you will have no difficulty in composing a similar essay in the test hall if the topic is posed to you. You should write essays of your own on at least 25 of the given topics before you sit for your GRE test. Composing an essay is a difficult art, and the examination hall should not be the place where you compose a GRE essay of your own for the first time. Hallmarks of an effective essay One of the ways to sound smart while writing an essay is the appropriate use of what are known as ‘signpost’ words or phrases. Some of the ‘signpost’ words and phrases are: For instance, for example, however, on the other hand, although, unlike, yet, nevertheless, since and therefore. An illustrative example may be introduced by the phrases ‘For instance’ or ‘For example’. A series of arguments may be introduced by the words ‘First’ or ‘Firstly’, ‘Second’ or ‘Secondly’, .... ‘Finally’. When you wish to contrast two ideas from each other, you can use signpost words such as ‘However’, ‘On the other hand’, ‘Nevertheless’, ‘Yet’ and ‘Contrariwise’. Signpost words and phrases are valuable in many ways. They help the reader to follow your argument more easily. They make the purpose of every detail, fact, story or example which you use more obvious. More important, they make your essay sound well-organized. By emphasizing the structure of your argument, the signpost words prove that you have thought through the argument rather than rambling aimlessly from one idea to another, and that you have got a plan and you are following it intelligently. So, look for opportunities to use these four kinds of signpost words in your essays: 1. Words that show a contrast or change in idea: although, but, by contrast, despite, however, nevertheless, on the other hand, unlike and yet 2. Words that show a similarity or the continuation of an idea: also, as well, equally, in the same way,


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likewise, parallely, similarly, so, thus and too 3. Words that show a time sequence: after, before, earlier, later, next, previous, prior to, subsequently and then 4. Words that show a cause and effect relationship: as a result, because, consequently, due to, led to, produced, resulted in, since and therefore. Vary the lengths of your sentences One sure method of making an essay dull, lifeless and monotonous is to have all its sentences of the same length. To sound smart, you should consciously try to vary the lengths of your sentences. While some of your sentences may bee fairly long with three or four subordinate clauses, others must be short with just five or six words. The changing rhythm of your writing will give your prose a snappy, intelligent tone, and will keep the reader alert and interested. Instead of all sentences as narrative ones, you should also try to introduce, in appropriate places of your essay, an interrogative (which is in the nature of a question) and an exclamatory sentence. If you wish to key in your essay instead of handwriting, you can use the limited word processing features of the typing program in the computer that will be made available to you in the test center. This programme will have three features - cut, paste and undo. In the course of typing an essay, or after completing it, if you wish to delete a word or phrase or sentence, you can do so by selecting it with your mouse and pressing the ‘cut’ command. If you wish to shift a word, phrase or sentence from one place of the essay to another, you can select it, use the ‘cut’ command and then, pointing the cursor at the point where you wish to insert it, press the ‘paste’ command. The word processing software stored in the ETS computer does not have the ‘spell check’ facility. You can adopt one of the following standard formats for your essay on ‘Analysis of an Argument’: Format 1 Para 1: The argument that (restatement of the conclusion in the given paragraph) is not entirely and logically convincing because it is based on a few unproven assumptions. Para 2: First, the argument assumes that ... Para 3: Second, the argument does not address the question .... Para 4: Third, the argument omits .... Para 5: For all these reasons, the argument is not completely sound. Para 6: The argument might have been strengthened if only the author had .... Format 2 Para 1: State your position: Restate the argument. Para 2: Discuss the link (or the absence of it) between the conclusion and the evidence presented in of it. Para 3: Show three deficiencies in the reasoning of the argument. Para 4: Show how each of the three deficiencies could be plugged by stating the missing assumptions. Format 3 Para 1: Restate the given argument and say that it has two/three/four flaws. Para 2: Point out the first flaw and show it could be plugged if only a particular assumption (which is missing) is


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made. Para 3: Point out the second flaw, and show it could be plugged only if another specific assumption (which is missing) is made). Para 4: Point out the third flaw, and show it could be plugged only if another specific assumption (which is missing) is made). Para 5: Summarize your essay with the statement that, because these assumptions have not been stated, the given argument is weak. Do not use strong words such as ‘foolish’, ‘idiotic’ or ‘mad’ to describe a conclusion in the given argument. that logical flaws are deliberately built into the conclusions for you to notice and comment upon. The use of words such as ‘illogical’ and ‘unfounded’ are quite adequate to describe these logical flaws. Wind up your essay with a concluding paragraph as in the model essays below. If you have time, you can do a little more elaboration of the final paragraph to state what specific additional information will be required if the given conclusion is to be considered as valid. In most cases, this will be a restatement of what you have written already. that there is a time limit of 30 minutes for composing your essay. It is only by writing a few essays on your own within this time limit that you can assess beforehand how many words you will be able to write or type in the test hall. A length of 350 to 400 words would be the optimum. that the wording of a topic that is posed to you by the computer when you sit for your GRE may differ slightly from what is found in the ‘Pool of GRE Topics’ released by Educational Testing Service. Note the difference first and understand it before starting to compose your essay. (In the case of the first few model essays below, we have first indicated the types of flaws in the given argument. You can take them as the guidance for reviewing the subsequent arguments.) 1. ‘Nature’s Way’ chain of stores (The basic flaw in the given argument is the use of vague phrases such as ‘many such residents’, ‘all-time highs’, and ‘more than ever’ which do not have any specific quantitative meaning. You should build your essay on this fundamental defect.) Any proposal for a new commercial venture must concentrate on its financial viability, and must contain specific projections of anticipated turnover, cost of goods, gross profit, overhead expenses and net profit. The memorandum of the Vice President is silent on each of these points. Firstly, for any such venture to be viable, there ought to be a ‘break-even’ turnover which the Vice President of any leading chain stores must be aware of. His memorandum does not contain a single specific figure, but talks generally of ‘many such residents’, ‘all-time highs’ and ‘more than ever’, which do not have any numerical certainty. Secondly, the memorandum does not even indicate whether Plainsville is a small or a large village, or a small or a large town. It has no information about its population. If the total population of Plainsville is 1000 (of whom only about 600 are likely to be adults), the fact that ‘many of them’ are concerned about leading healthy lives may not justify the establishment of a new store of Nature’s Way there. On the other hand, if the population of Plainsville is above 100,000, the proposal would look more rosy. Thirdly, the fact that ‘sales of running shoes and exercise clothing in Painsville are all-time highs’ does not also strengthen the argument, because such ‘all-time high’ may be just $500 in the whole year, the figure in the previous years having been even less. Fourthly, the memorandum says that the local health club, which nearly closed down five years ago, has ‘more than ever’. This vague figure of ‘more


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than ever’ may be anything like 50 or 1000. Obviously, the proposal will have some validity if the number is 1000, but will have no justification at all if the number is only 50. Fifthly, the memorandum talks of the business that will be generated by school children, again without giving any information about their number. If there is only one school in Plainsville with less than 200 students, then the proposal will not be justified. If it has a number of schools with a total enrollment of 10,000, there will be some merit in the proposal. Strangely, the proposal is silent about existing competition. Even if all the vague phrases in the memorandum refer to fairly appreciable numbers, the existence of similar stores already in Plainsville with their own loyal and satisfied clientele might render the new store of Nature’s Way non-viable. The memorandum makes the bland assertion that ‘our next new store’ must be built in Plainsville. Before making this categorical statement, the vice president must have discussed the merits of other possible alternative locations for the next new store, and then made out a convincing case why Plainsville is a better candidate than all of them. Thus, the proposal would have validity if he had quantified all the vague phrases which he has used, had made specific financial projections, discussed existing competition and also compared the merits of Plainsville with those of other possible locations for the next store. Therefore, as it stands, the memorandum cannot be of any help to the management of Nature’s Way to come to an informed decision. (Note how almost all bits of information contained in the given argument have been touched upon and analyzed in this essay.) 2. Deerhaven Acres & Brookville Community (The major flaw in the given argument is that it presumes that, just because Event B followed Event A, Event B was caused by Event A. It does not consider the possibility that there could be other more valid reasons for the occurrence of Event B. You should develop your essay on this flaw, and think of as many other reasons as you can. You can also argue that what proved true in the case of Brookville may not prove true in the case of Deerhaven.) The committee’s argument is based on the assumption that it was only the new set of restrictions on landscaping and coloring of home exteriors that contributed to the tripling of property values in Brookville in the last seven years. The argument is weak because it does not consider other possible reasons for such increase. For example, the setting up of a new big industrial unit in Brookville in the intervening period which created hundreds of new employment opportunities, could have been the real reason for the increase in its property values. A second possibility is that a new university or a major government laboratory has been set up in Brookville, and this had pushed up the property prices in that locality. A third possibility is that property values in Brookville seven years back had been much lower than in neighboring counties because of the existence of a highly polluting industry there. The industry may have been closed down during the last seven years resulting in these values getting tripled. A fourth possibility is that, in spite of the stated increase, the property values in Brookville are still lower than those in Deerhaven, and people from Deerhaven are themselves moving into Brookville. If so, mere changes in landscaping and wall coloring are not likely to contribute to an increase in property values in Deerhaven. Another possibility is that a major non-polluting industry in Deerhaven has closed down recently, throwing a large number of people out of employment. If so, the property values in Deerhaven will crumble, and will not increase just because of changes in landscaping and similar rules. Above all, common sense dictates that the mere changing of color schemes of exteriors of buildings or the landscaping of the open yards do not triple property


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values in a large area. Therefore, the argument in the committee’s letter is least convincing as it stands. To buttress the proposal, the committee will have to conclusively establish that no other reason except what they have stated in their letter had triggered the increase in Brookville’s property values, and that no other adverse factor is presently pulling down the property values in Deerhaven. 3. Megalopolis’s law firms (This argument does not consider any alternative reason for the stated result, uses the vague phrase increasing number without quantifying it, and incorporates a contradiction in the last two sentences. You should develop your essay highlighting these points.) From the fact that the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent in the last three years, and an ‘increasing number’ of law school graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms, the author comes to the conclusion that law school graduates are ‘choosing’ to work for the smaller firms ‘in preference to’ large firms. This conclusion is questionable because it does not consider the possibility that all these students too had applied for jobs in large firms but could not be accommodated by the latter because of a general decline in their type of business; and had no choice but to the smaller firms. The second flaw in the argument arises out of the non-quantification of the phrase ‘increasing number’. If the number of law school graduates ing large firms had ‘declined’ by a mere 30 from 200 to 170 in the last three years, and the number who had ed small, general practice firms during this period had ‘increased’ by a mere 10 from 20 to just 30, one can still conclude, contrary to what the author says, that large firms continue to be the preference of a large number of law school graduates. Thirdly, as the reason for the unsubstantiated preference of law graduates for small firms, the author cites the opinion of ‘first year’ students that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. There are two problems with this argument: (i) Can the opinion of ‘first year’ students be extrapolated as representing the opinion of a majority of law school ‘graduates’? (ii) Is there justification for the implied assumption that ‘working in large firms’ is incompatible with ‘job satisfaction’? It is quite likely that students who are idealistic in their first year in law college become more practical or mercenary when they are about to graduate. They may then consider that it is working in big firms that will give them greater job satisfaction because of the wider opportunities that they will get there to handle different types of legal problems. Finally, the last sentence in the article does not follow logically from the previous assertions and, in fact, contradicts them. If law students are not lured by ‘high salary’ but prefer ‘job satisfaction’, why does the author argue that large firms must offer ‘more benefits and incentives’ in order to attract them? And where has he cited evidence that one need work for shorter hours in smaller firms than in larger firms? For the foregoing reasons, the argument advanced in the article does not have much force. 4. Adams Realty & Fitch Realty (‘Realty’ is the business of acting as a broker between a seller and a buyer in real estate transactions. The flaws in this argument are: judging the relative competence of two firms on the basis of just two or three parameters, and comparing a 10-year-old event with a 1-year-old event to judge the relative competence of the two firms. You should build your essay around these flaws.) It is on highly specious grounds that the author of this notice wants the readers to believe that Adams Realty is more efficient than Fitch Realty. Firstly, the statistics given in the first two sentences merely show that Adams has more human resources than Fitch. This does not, by itself, warrant the conclusion that Adams is ‘clearly’ superior.


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In fact, the given statistics may themselves be interpreted to prove the contrary: If Fitch has 50% as much revenue as Adams has, but with only 5/8 as many real estate agents as the latter has (and they too working only part-time), it is Fitch which should be considered as the more efficient between the two! Secondly, the efficiency of a real estate agent (from the point of view of the seller) must be assessed on the basis of how much higher price than the market value of the property that he is able to get for his client. It is quite probable that the average ‘market value’ of the properties sold by Fitch was only $125,000 but this firm was able to get an average price of $144,000 for its clients; similarly, the average ‘market value’ of the properties sold by Adams might have really been $175,000, but it was able to get an average price of only $168,000 for its clients. If this be the real case, who between the two can be named more efficient? Obviously Fitch, and not Adams! Thirdly, the author compares his experience in employing Fitch ten years back with his experience with using Adams last year, and recommends the latter to other prospective property sellers. This argument is highly questionable because he does not for the possibility that the real estate market was bearish ten years back with very few buyers in the market, but had turned highly bullish last year. It also does not consider the possibility that the average time taken by Fitch to sell properties last year was less than one month, a better record than that of Adams. For the above reasons, the recommendation that Adams must be used in preference to Fitch both for quickness of the transaction and for getting a higher price is not logically established by the stated reasons, and requires much more relevant and reliable data before it can be acted upon by other prospective property sellers. 5. Becton Pharmaceuticals & Perkins Pharmaceuticals (You should first identify which are the ‘facts’ or the ‘opinions of others’ and which are the ‘conclusions of the author’, and then write a critique on only the conclusions of the author. The probable rise in the number of arthritis patients from 40 million to 60 million is a ‘general assumption’, while ‘pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable’ is a conclusion of the author. Similarly, ‘Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company’ is the belief of ‘many analysts’, while the author’s conclusion is that ‘Perkins Pharmaceuticals is more likely to be the winner’. You should write a critique of only these two conclusions of the author.) While the increase in the number of arthritis patients in the next twenty years is likely to result in the increase in the sales of drugs for arthritis, it does not warrant the conclusion that pharmaceutical companies which produce drugs for arthritis should therefore be ‘very profitable’. Firstly, a higher turnover does not always result in a higher profit, since the price of raw materials may go up without the company being able to on the higher cost arising therefrom to the consumer. Secondly, if a large number of pharmaceutical firms start manufacturing Xenon after its patent expires in the next three years, the market is likely to get highly fragmented, and the resulting price war may result in a situation of low profit for the entire industry manufacturing this drug. Moreover, the author does not envisage the possibility that non-drug-based cures for arthritis (such as laser treatment) may be developed within the next twenty years resulting in lower consumption of drugs for arthritis. Seen from this angle, the first assertion of the author is not as sound as it prima facie appears to be. The second conclusion of the author that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be ‘more profitable’ than Becton Pharmaceuticals is based on the research finding that seven out of ten patients suffering from the ‘most extreme cases of arthritis’ prefer Xylan to Xenon. This conclusion will be valid only if most of the additional 20 million arthritis patients of the next twenty years are afflicted by the ‘most extreme cases of arthritis’. If, on the other hand, most of these new incidences of arthritis are of less serious varieties which can be cured through the istration of milder drugs, it is Xenon (or its equivalents) which will have a larger market. Consequently the author’s prognosis will fail.


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Moreover, his statement that other companies will produce cheaper versions of Xenon than Becton can is also not logically sound, because a depreciated plant as that of Becton can most probably produce the drug much cheaper than any new plant that starts manufacturing the same drug. For the foregoing reasons, it is not possible to concur with the forecasts of the author of this article merely on the basis of the evidence and the reasons cited by him. 6. Monroe’s new Jazz Club (You should first sift between the ‘facts’ and the ‘conclusions’ contained in the note. The facts are: Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away from Monroe; over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; the highest rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’; and the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. The ‘conclusions’ in the loan application are: A jazz club in Monroe would be a tremendously popular enterprise; the proposed club - C Note - would have the local market all to itself; jazz is extremely popular in Monroe; and it is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money. Note that the given note is contained in an application for a ‘small business loan’ by a group of developers. You have to critically assess whether the conclusions follow from the stated facts.) In spite of the stated facts, namely, that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, that the highest rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’, and that over 100,000 people attended Monroe’s jazz festival last year, the note states that there is no jazz club presently in Monroe, and that the nearest one is 65 miles away. This means that, in spite of these favorable factors, either nobody had ventured in the past to start a jazz club in this city, or the clubs started here earlier had closed down. There must have been some valid reasons for this phenomenon, but the note does not even attempt to probe into such reasons. If no such club had been started in the past, the applicants for the loan would have to explain why such an obvious business proposition had not occurred to anyone else earlier. If jazz clubs that had been started earlier had closed down, the applicants must have given reasons for such closures, and should have indicated how they propose to avoid the mistakes, if any, committed by earlier promoters. Secondly, it must be noted that the population size of Monroe is not mentioned anywhere in the note. It is quite probable that a majority of those who attended last year’s Monroe Jazz Festival had come from outside. Therefore, this figure of 100,000 cannot be taken to be indicative of the size of the local population. Moreover, it is intriguing why several well-known jazz musicians should be living in Monroe when it does not have a jazz club and the nearest club is as far as 65 miles away. One possible explanation is that Monroe is a small, prestigious, exclusive and upmarket community of very rich persons. If this is true, such a small population will not be able to economically sustain a viable jazz club. Even assuming that there is a good potential for starting a jazz club in Monroe, the credentials of the applicants for the loan to run it successfully are not established. The preamble to the note says that the proposal has been submitted by ‘a group of developers’. The competence of a set of property developers to run a music club successfully is open to question. The note does not indicate how they propose to overcome their lack of relevant experience to run such a club. Even if all the data stated in the note are true, it only establishes there is potential for establishing a jazz club in Monroe. The statements that it would prove to be “a tremendously profitable enterprise”, and “it cannot help but make money” are not substantiated with any figures involving investment, revenue or expenditure. It is quite likely that, in order to exploit the full business potential, a much larger investment than ‘a small business loan’ will be needed. If this is true, the promoters may not achieve the full potential with the proposed limited investment. It is stated that the average annual expenditure of $1000 on jazz entertainment is based on a ‘nationwide’ survey. In the absence of any information about the economic condition of Monroe residents, it is not possible to assume that their average expenditure on jazz entertainment will amount to the same figure.


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Even assuming that, to start with, the local jazz market may belong fully to C Note, its success may trigger off competition quickly. If new clubs emerge with better attractions, more efficient management and more aggressive marketing, C Note may suffer financially and may not continue to remain profitable. In my view, the application for a loan by the intending promoters of the club has to be carefully examined in the light of the above-mentioned reservations. (Note how this essay picks logical holes in a seemingly sound proposition.) 7. Clearview mayoral election (The ‘facts’ contained in the letter to the newspaper are that Frank Braun is a member of the present Clearview town council; the number of factories in Clearview has doubled during the past year’ air pollution levels have increased; and the local hospital has treated 25% more patients with respiratory illnesses. The ‘conclusions’ drawn by the writer are that the current of the town council are not protecting the environment; residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, and that, if she is elected, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved. It is these ‘conclusions’ which you must examine critically.) In advocating that residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green in the next Mayoral election for the reason she will ‘certainly solve the environmental problems in the town’, the writer is presuming that the most important problem of the town is environmental, and that the decision of the voters should be based on this single issue alone. But he does not give sufficient data to validate this presumption. The statement that ‘air pollution levels have increased in the past year’ does not, by itself, imply that they have reached anywhere near intolerable limits. If the tolerable level of air pollution is, say, 500 particulates in a cubic meter of air, and the level in Clearview had increased in the past one year from 10 particulates to 15 particulates in a cubic meter of air, there is no need to feel jittery about the increase. If such be the case, one’s voting preference should clearly not be determined by such an insignificant increase in the pollution level. Secondly, the statement that ‘the local hospital has treated 25% more patients with respiratory illnesses in the last year’ does not, by itself, establish that the problem has become acute. If, in a population of 100,000, the number of patients treated for respiratory illness had increased from 100 to 125, it does not constitute a valid reason for ringing the alarm bell. So, unless the writer cites exact figures of such patients vis-a-vis the total population of the town, it is not possible to agree with his conclusion that ‘the current are not protecting the environment’. The refrain of the writer is that, for the Mayor’s post, Ann Green must be preferred to Frank Braun because the latter is a member of the present council. Even assuming that the present council had taken certain decisions which had adversely affected environmental conditions in Clearview, Frank Braun cannot be held responsible unless it is shown that he had actively ed those decisions. It is quite likely that Frank Braun had stoutly opposed those measures but he was overruled by the majority of the other in the council. In the absence of any information on this aspect, one can even presume that Frank Braun is a more ardent er of environment than Ann Green. In that case, the writer’s advocacy of Ann Green’s candidature vis-a-vis Frank Braun would be misplaced. The writer makes it appear that, in selecting the new mayor, the predominant consideration should be his/her commitment to environment, but he does not give any unassailable justification for his view. If, on the contrary, the most serious problem of Clearview is lack of employment for its residents, then a person who lays emphasis on greater economic activity and who takes steps to accelerate industrial growth in the town would prove to be a better Mayor. Finally, the assertion in the last sentence, “If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved” is also questionable because the majority of newly elected of the town’s council may continue to be the opponents of the Good Earth Coalition. For the foregoing reasons, the writer of the letter has not made out a convincing case for voting for Ann Green in the next mayoral election.


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8. Omni Inc and Mesa Foods (The facts in this case are: “Mesa Foods is a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country; Mesa enjoyed a 20% increase in profits last year; its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years; Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds”. The opinions or conclusions of the writer of the note are: “Mesa Foods has strong growth potential; Omni Inc should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country”. It is the latter which we should critically examine in the light of the facts stated first.) The proposal in this case is that a company, Mesa Foods, which has been concentrating on marketing its snack foods within a small area, must be purchased by a nationwide company, Omni Inc.. The reason cited is that the main snack food produced by the former, namely Diabolique Salsa, can be marketed throughout the nation successfully. In order to buttress his recommendation, the author says that Mesa Foods enjoyed a 20% increase in profit last year. This statement by itself is not forceful unless the increase in profit is quantified and not given in of a vague percentage. If the profit had increased merely from $1000 to $1200, the argument would not have much merit. But, if the profits in the two successive years had been 1 million dollars and 1.2 million dollars, the recommendation would be quite convincing. The absence of the exact figures of profits in the two successive years renders the recommendation rather hollow. Equally vague is the statement that Diabolique Salsa, Mesa Food’s best-selling product, has had ‘increased sales’ over each of the past three years. The recommendation would be valid if the increases had been in the region of 200%, 500% and 800%, but would have no force if the increases had been a uniform 10%, that too on an already small base. Thus, this statement also does not add strength to the recommendation because of its vagueness. Another questionable assumption in the given note is that a snack food that has been found to be popular with youths in a limited geographical region of the country will be equally popular with youths in the whole country. If the population of the region in which Diabolique Salsa is presently marketed is predominantly of a particular ethnic group, say Mexicans, their favorite food may not enjoy the same popularity with the youths of the whole country, most of whom belong to various other ethnic groups. For the foregoing reasons, the recommendation cannot be acted upon straightaway without further detailed examination of the issues pointed out above. 9. Omega & Alpha Universities (The main flaw in this recommendation is the attribution of a particular result to a specific single cause without examining other possible causes. You should build your essay on this theme.) In this note, the dean of Omega University makes an unfounded insinuation that, in order to gain popularity with their students and thereby to get a better rating from them, professors in the university are deliberately asg higher grades to their students than what the latter deserve. According to him, this is the reason why Omega graduates are not as successful in securing jobs as are graduates from the nearby Alpha University. On the basis of this reasoning, the dean recommends that Omega should terminate the practice of evaluation of the professors by the students. The major flaw in his argument is that he attributes the increase in the overall student grade averages by 30% during the past 15 years solely to the alleged wish of the professors to placate their students in order to get a higher rating from them. He does not examine the possibility that such increase might have been due to stricter norms in the ission of students during the same period, because of which Omega is now having relatively brighter students than what it used to enroll. On the contrary, the increase in the student grade average could also have been because Omega had dispensed with the services of inefficient professors on the basis


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of the students’ evaluation about them, and has now recruited more competent professors who teach better. A second inference by the dean is that the reason why Omega alumni are not as successful in securing jobs as Alpha alumni are is that the prospective employers believe that the student grade averages of the former are inflated. This also suffers from the same flaw of not examining other possible reasons for the state of affairs. It is quite likely that the courses offered by Alpha have been periodically updated to be more in tune with the needs of the job market while Omega has been sticking to its conventional courses which have become irrelevant in the market place. Moreover, it is also possible that the placement office of Alpha has more competent personnel than that of Omega. If this is the case, Omega graduates will be able to get a better deal if this university also strengthens its placement office instead of going back on the student assessment scheme. Paradoxically, the dean’s note does not state that Alpha University does not follow the policy of student evaluation of faculty. If the same practice is being followed in Alpha also, the bottom is taken out of the dean’s argument. Assuming that the dean’s reasoning is valid and the student evaluation of faculty is dispensed with, the immediate result will be that the grade average of Omega graduates will come down by 30%. At least in the short term, until the employers start appreciating the fact that the grade averages awarded by Omega truly reflect the merit of the students, Omega graduates with lower grade averages will be even worse off in the job market than they are at present. For the above reasons, the recommendation of the dean should not be implemented straightaway, and the authorities must probe into the reasons much more exhaustively. 10. Batavia’s milk prices (The ‘facts’ in this case are: The number of dairy farms throughout Batavia is 25% greater than it was 10 years ago. During the same 10 years, the price of milk in the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 per gallon to over $3.00 per gallon. The other statements in the narration are ‘opinions’ of the writer. It is these opinions which you must examine critically. The flaws in his reasoning are equating an increase in the ‘number of dairy farms’ to an increase in the ‘extent of acreage’ devoted to dairy farming; presuming that an increase in the retail price of a product results in an increase in the profit of its producers; and that government regulation should protect the consumers’ interests as against the producers’ interests.) The first inference of the writer of the letter is that the increase in the number of dairy farms in the whole of Batavia must have necessarily resulted in an increased supply of milk and consequent reduction in its price in the local retail shop. This inference is questionable because the increase in the ‘number of dairy farms’ need not have resulted in a simultaneous increase in the ‘farm area devoted to milk production’. On the contrary, it is quite possible that large dairy farms which had existed ten years back have now got fragmented into a number of smaller farms, even while a considerable extent of land which was earmarked for dairy farming has since been diverted for other uses. If this is the case, there would have been a reduction, and not an increase, in milk production in Batavia despite an increase in the number of dairy farms. Citing the increase in the price of milk in the local retail shop during the past decade, the writer arrives at the further conclusion that dairy farmers are making ‘excessive profits’. Obviously he presumes that the farmers have not suffered a considerable increase in the cost of production of milk during the last decade. If his presumption is wrong, and the cost of inputs for the dairy farmer has gone up even more than the increase in the retail price of milk, then the dairy farmers would, in fact, have been making even less profit now than they did ten years back. The writer also presumes that the entire increase in the retail price of milk is being appropriated by the dairy farmer. On the contrary, it is quite probable that the increase in the retail price of milk is mainly attributable to a substantial increase in its cost of treatment, preservation, transport and distribution, and the


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dairy farmer is getting the same price now as, or even less price now than, what he was getting ten years back. If this is the true state of affairs, the writer’s complaint about ‘excessive profits’ being made by dairy farmers would again be baseless. Finally, it is also likely that, while the number of farms in the whole of Batavia has increased, the number (and the area devoted to dairy farming) has decreased in the local area in which Excello Food Market is situated, because of which milk has to be transported a much longer distance to reach the local market. This could be the major cause for increase in the retail price of milk in the local retail outlet. In the last sentence, the writer says that government regulation of retail price is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers. Ironically there is an inherent contradiction in this conclusion: if the government regulation results in non-remunerative price for the dairy farmers, they may well discontinue the production of milk and divert their land for other more remunerative enterprises. If this happens, the supply of milk to consumers will, in fact, lessen and not increase. Consequently, the price of milk will increase further. All the doubts pointed out above must be satisfactorily clarified before we can accept the conclusions of the writer of the letter. 11. West Egg’s garbage disposal (The weakness in this argument is the vagueness in the meaning of the phrases ‘twice as much aluminum and paper’, ‘charges will double’, and ‘respondents to a recent survey’. You should build your essay on this theme.) The first reason cited by the Mayor for his conclusion (that the available space in the landfill should last considerably longer than the predicted five years) is that town residents have been recycling ‘twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years’. This is a vague statement without specific quantification. If the average percentage of aluminum and paper in garbage is more than 40% by volume, the Mayor’s argument will have considerable force. On the contrary, if it is less than 1% by volume, the fact that residents nowadays prefer to recycle them instead of throwing them into garbage will not make an appreciable difference to the predicted life of the landfill. Secondly, the Mayor predicts that, since garbage pickup charges will double next month, the amount of materials recycled should further increase. This statement again does not give the specific figure of pickup charges. If the charges are getting doubled from $100 a month to $200, the Mayor’s prognosis may probably come true. If the charges are only getting doubled from $5 to $10, it may not be sufficient incentive for people to resort to more recycling. Another reason cited by the Mayor for his conclusion is that over 90% of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in future. Note that he does not say that 90% of the ‘residents’, or even that 90% of ‘those who were surveyed’ expressed this opinion, but that 90% of ‘those who responded to the survey’ said so. If only 10% of the residents had been surveyed, and 90% of them did not respond at all to the survey, then the opinion cited by the Mayor would be that of only 1% of the total number of residents. This, obviously, cannot form a valid justification for his conclusion. Lastly, even assuming that all the reasons cited by the Mayor are valid, he does not furnish evidence that the consultants had not considered these possibilities before they predicted the life of the landfill as five years. If the consultants themselves had already factored these possibilities into their prediction, then again the Mayor’s conclusion would be wrong. Before the Mayor’s prediction is accepted and acted upon, the Council should get clarifications on each of the issues mentioned above.


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12. Alta Manufacturing & Panoply Industries (The basic defect in this case is the attribution of just one cause for the stated result without considering other possible causes. You must build your essay on this theme.) The basic flaw in the reasoning of the Vice President is that he assumes that there can be no other reason except the longer duration of the work shifts for the greater number of accidents in Alta Manufacturing than in Panoply Industries. On the other hand, it is quite likely that, even as types of industries, Alta is more prone to accidents than Panoply. If Alta is making overhead cranes and Panoply is making computer chips, the former will have much more accident potential than the latter, irrespective of the lengths of the shift times. In order to agree with the given conclusion, the Vice President should first convince us that Alta and Panoply are comparable industries from the point of view of accident proneness. Even if it be true that Alta and Panoply are comparable industries in this regard, the greater number of accidents in Alta may be because its machines are much older and do not have as many built-in safety gadgets as the newer ones in Panoply. If this is the case, the solution to the problem lies in modernizing Alta’s machines and not in reducing the working hours of the employees. Moreover, it is possible that Panoply puts its workers through safety consciousness exercises more frequently and much more effectively than Alta does, or that the management of Panoply enforces safety precautions much more strictly than Alta. If this is the real reason behind the observed fact, then again the reduction of working hours for workers is not the solution. Note that the vice-president compares the actual number of accidents in the two factories, and does not relate them to the number of workers. If Alta has 2000 workers and Panoply has only 100, and the number of accidents in the two are 13 and 10 respectively, it is Alta which should be considered a safer factory than Panoply! It is apparent from the note that there are as many as three shifts in Alta, which means that the working hours per shift last a maximum of only eight hours. The workers have the remaining 16 hours to themselves. Since an average adult needs to sleep for only 6 to 7 hours a day, the Vice President has not made out a case that the present working hours in Alta leads to sleep deprivation of its workers. Even assuming that his argument is valid, how can one be sure that the workers will use the one hour additionally made available to them for sleeping and not for other activities? If they continue to sleep for the same number of hours as they do now, then the reduction of one hour in their working time will not contribute to less number of accidents. On the other hand, working for one hour less per day, they will be less productive, nullifying the other prediction of the Vice President that his recommendation will result in increased productivity. In my view, the recommendation of the Vice President cannot be acted upon by the management of Alto unless the concerns mentioned above are satisfactorily addressed first. 13. ‘Squirrel Power’ novel by Peter Wood The first reason that the chief executive cites in of his recommendation to acquire the video game rights of the yet-to-be published children’s book ‘Squirrel Power’ by Peter Wood is that this author’s last three books were best sellers. This by itself is no guarantee that the next book by Wood will also be a best seller. If the new book proves to be much less popular than the previous ones, the substantial investment suggested for buying its rights even before it is actually published may prove to be a costly gamble which the company can ill afford. Note that the CEO himself has referred to the economic constraints that the purchase can cause to the company. Secondly, he attempts to reinforce his first argument by pointing out that the movie based on Wood’s first book was highly profitable. There is no information whether a movie was released based on his second book also and, if so, whether it was also equally profitable or had been a flop. Another question that needs to be answered is: can the fact that a movie based on an author’s book was successful be taken as the guarantee that a video game based on


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another book by him will be equally successful? To add force to his recommendation, the CEO must have cited specific precedents in which both movies and video games based on a number of popular books had been equally successful. Moreover, the argument in the last sentence in the note is also open to question. How does the CEO presume that the characters and the story line of the new book will be ‘popular’ when the book is yet to be published? Finally, he has not made out a convincing case with actual figures why the cost of developing a storyline and characters for a new video game in-house will be greater than the ittedly substantial cost of acquiring the rights to an yet-to-be published book. The CEO must address all the doubts raised above satisfactorily in a supplementary note before his management can act upon his recommendation. Perhaps, a better option before the company will be to purchase the rights to create a video game based on the first book of Wood which had proved to be both a bestseller and a popular movie story, because such rights of an earlier book may be available at a substantially lesser price. 14. Green Thumb Gardening Center The first reason cited by the owner for his recommendation is that a ‘national survey’ conducted last month indicated that ‘many’ consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. I find two problems with this argument. The first is that ‘many consumers’ is too vague a phrase, and may denote any figure between 5% and 75% of the total number of consumers. If the dissatisfaction expressed is that of only 5% of the consumers, the argument of the owner will obviously have no force. So, his first obligation is to quantify this vague figure. The second problem is: can the finding in the ‘national survey’ be applied without relevant adjustments to the situation in a ‘suburban town’? If the suburban town is located in the midst of a farming area, then the vegetables available in the local supermarket are likely to be much more fresh than those available in the supermarkets in big cities which are far away from production centers. It could even be the case that, in this suburban town, consumers do not depend upon supermarkets for their vegetables but buy them from smaller shops run by the farmers themselves. In this case also, the recommendation of the owner will have less validity. Another reason cited in the note is that the gardening magazine ‘Great Gardens’ has sold out in the local news stand three months in a row. It does not say how many copies of this magazine had in fact been sold. If the number of gardeners in the suburban town is 500 and the number of copies ‘sold out in the local news stand’ is only 25, the recommendation of the owner will hardly be justified. Additionally, he does not also clarify whether ‘Great Gardens’ concentrates on flower gardens or vegetable gardens. If the contents of this magazine relate mostly to flower gardening and not to vegetable growing, its popularity among the local gardeners will not justify the stocking of many more vegetable seeds by the owner’s gardening center. Finally, advisability of stocking ‘a large variety’ of vegetable seeds is also open to question. Will the climate of the place allow all these many varieties to thrive and grow in it? The owner of the Green Thumb Gardening Center will have to ponder over all these points before taking the step proposed by him. 15. Investments in Old Dairy’s stocks There are a number of problems with the first sentence in the newsletter. How many persons were actually approached during the survey, and what percent of the total population did they constitute? And what percentage of those who were approached during the survey did actually respond to it? The newsletter is silent on each one of these relevant points.


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If those approached constituted 80% of the total population, if 90% of them had responded to the survey, and over 80% of these had said that they would like to reduce their fat and cholesterol intake, the recommendation will have considerable force. On the contrary, if only 5% of the total population had been approached, and only 10% of them responded to the questionnaire, then the opinion cited in the newsletter is that of only 0.4% of the total population. If this be the case, the recommendation, based on this survey alone, will obviously have no validity. Without specific information on these two important aspects, it is unsafe to agree with the author of this newsletter. Moreover, the age composition of those surveyed is not mentioned either. The fact that, say, a majority of over 60-year-olds preferred non-fat food will not mean that the preference of the overall population is also the same. This point must also be clarified before the recommendation can be acted upon. The phrase ‘many food stores’ in the first sentence is also delightfully vague, and may represent any number from 10 to 500. The validity of the recommendation will only be proportionate to the actual value of this undisclosed number. Even if we concede the arguments in the first sentence, the author has not cited any basis for his assumption that the management of Old Dairy Industries are not aware of these problems and are not planning to change their product mix to suit the different demands in the emerging market. If they are already doing so, it is quite likely that the company will become even more profitable than it is now, and the value of its stocks will consequently appreciate. Thus, the newsletter has not made out a convincing case to justify the recommendation contained in the last sentence. Surprisingly, the authors of this newsletter have not realized the inherent contradiction between the two recommendations they have made: that existing stockholders of Old Dairy should sell their stocks and that other investors should not buy these stocks. How can anyone sell his stocks if noone else is prepared to buy them? 16. Impecunia’s lottery proposal like Lucria’s (The first three sentences in the letter are facts, and only the last sentence incorporates the conclusion of the writer. And your critique should concentrate on the last sentence.) The assertion of the writer of the letter that the lottery proposed by him ‘would doubtless be successful’ is based on the results of a survey conducted in the ‘capital city’ of Impecunia, which showed that its citizens already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling. The first problem with this assertion is that it tries to extrapolate the behavior of the people of the capital city to the people of the state as a whole. If the people in the rural areas and in small towns of Impecunia are not used to gambling of this order, the prediction of the writer will obviously fail. Secondly, the letter does not mention the percentage of the population of the capital city to the total population of the state of Impecunia. If this is as much as 95%, then the results of the survey can be acted upon. On the contrary, if the capital city’s population forms only 5% of the national population, then this survey will not be of much use in predicting the fate of the proposed lottery. The third problem with the prediction is that it presumes that, once the new lottery is introduced, the citizens will start subscribing to it in preference to whatever else they are gambling on at present, and that the average expenditure of $50 per capita on gambling will accrue to the new lottery. The writer does not cite any valid reason for this presumption. If people have all along been used to gambling mainly on horse-racing or on speculation in the stock market, they are not likely to give these habits and switch over to speculating in the new lottery. Nor is it likely that the citizens of Impecunia will increase the average amount of $50 that they are presently spending on gambling to additionally invest in the proposed lottery. In justification of his proposal, the author gives comparative information on


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expenditure per pupil and number of persons covered by the public health system in Impecunia and Lucria, the neighboring state which introduced a similar lottery successfully last year in order to finance these two specific purposes. It is quite likely that Impecunia does not need to incur additional expenses on these two counts because of its different demographic composition, such as its population predominantly consisting of people in the age group 20 to 50. For the foregoing reasons, the assertion of the writer of the letter cannot straightaway be acted upon, and a further careful examination of the issues raised above is necessary. 17. Walnut Grove’s garbage disposal (The main flaw in this case is the vagueness about what percent of the total residents of Walnut Grove were covered by the survey, and what percent among them actually responded to the survey. Moreover, there is no information about how the questionnaire was worded. You should build your essay around these points.) The conclusion in the last sentence that EZ provides ‘exceptional service’ in respect of garbage disposal is based on the fact that 80% of the respondents to last year’s town survey said that they were ‘satisfied’ with EZ’s performance. I find two problems with this conclusion. It does not say what percent of the householders of Walnut Grove were covered by the survey, and what percent of those who were given the questionnaire actually responded to it. If the survey covered a sample of 10%, and only 20% of them actually responded to it, then the writer’s conclusion will be based on the opinion of only 1.6% of the total householders, and would have no merit. On the contrary, if the survey covered the entire 100% householders, and 90% of them had responded to it, then the opinion recorded would be that of nearly 72% of the householders, and could be taken as a representative opinion. Even in the latter case, it would be illogical to conclude that the response ‘satisfied’ even by such a large majority can lead to the conclusion that the performance of EZ is ‘exceptional’. The note does not indicate the options given to the householders on how they should grade the performance of EZ. If the options had been ‘Exceptional’, ‘Excellent’; ‘Good’ and ‘Satisfactory’, then the result of the survey would clearly go against EZ. If the options had been ‘Good’; ‘Satisfactory’; ‘Unsatisfactory’ and ‘Poor’, there could be some merit in the writer’s argument that the people are not against EZ. In the absence of any information in this regard, the writer’s recommendation cannot be acted upon straightaway. The other problem with the assertion of the writer is that he presumes that ABC, if offered the contract, will not also agree to clear the garbage twice a week, and that it will also not decide to increase the strength of its fleet for this purpose. The author’s presumption is that the five trucks ordered by EZ will augment its fleet. On the contrary, it is quite possible that these have been ordered by EZ in replacement of the aged trucks it is presently using, and not to augment its fleet. If so, there will be no addition to the number of vehicles utilized by EZ for clearing the garbage. Therefore, if the town council is negotiating with ABC to agree to clear the garbage twice a week as EZ is doing at present but at a lesser fee of $2000, its proposal should be considered to be in the interests of the city and must be ed. 18. Prunty County’s speed limit The editorial advocates the restoration of the speed limit in Prunty County to 55 miles for the reason that the earlier reduction of the speed limit to 45 miles has not resulted in an appreciable reduction in accident rate. I find this advice grossly illogical. If the reduction of the speed limit from 55 miles to 45 miles has not reduced the accident rate, the logical solution is to lower the speed limit still further to 40 or 35 miles, and not to increase it to 55 miles again. It is well known that, when the road ahead looks clear, motorists all over the world take some liberty with the prescribed speed limit. If the limit is 55 miles,


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they may try to accelerate their vehicle to 60 miles; if the limit is 45 miles, they may try to run at 50 miles or so. If the motorists using Prunty County roads also indulge in this universal practice, it is desirable to keep the speed limit at 45 miles and not increase it, so that the maximum speed attained by them remains around 50. In fact, enforcing the revised speed limit more strictly by engaging additional police squads may be a cheaper solution to the problem than what is proposed in the editorial. Increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads are standard solutions to traffic problems. But the editorial does not state clearly that the lane widths in roads in Butler County after the recent widening are larger than those in Prunty County. It is quite likely that the lanes in Butler County were much narrower five years back than those in Prunty County, and have only now been brought to the standard of the latter. If so, there is no force in the recommendation that Prunty County should further increase its lane widths. The last sentence points out, as is only logical, that the improvements made to the roads in Butler County had resulted in a 25% decrease in its accident rates. But it does not compare the accident rates in Butler County to those in Prunty County. If, in spite of the 25% decrease over a period of time, the accident rate in the former is greater than that in the latter, it is Butler County which should reduce the speed limit to 45 miles per hour, and not Prunty County which should increase it to 55 miles per hour. Lastly, the editorial does not examine whether the terrain in Prunty County will allow the widening of its roads at a reasonable cost. Before the government of Prunty County accepts the recommendation in the editorial, it has to get the above points examined carefully. 19. Double Rice’s concerts (The first flaw in this case is the attribution of the financial success of one concert of Double Rice this year to just only reason - namely the engagement of a particular advertising agency to promote the concert - and not conceding that there could be other more relevant reasons for the success. The second flaw is the presumption that the good performance of the advertising agency in a single city will be repeated in the entire country. You should build your essay around these points.) The recommendation in the manager’s letter is that the advertising agency Ad Lib should be hired on a nationwide scale to ensure the success of Double Rice’s future concerts throughout the country. The justification he gives for his recommendation is that all the 30,000 tickets for its recent concert in Megalopolis, for which Ad Lib ran the advertising campaign, sold out within 12 minutes, whereas the completion of sale used to take at least a day for earlier concerts. I find a number of problems with his recommendation. First of all, whether it takes 12 minutes or a full day for all the tickets to get sold does not really make much of a difference. What is required is that all the tickets must get sold before the commencement of the concert. Even assuming that this fact makes a difference, was the capacity of the stadium in Megalopolis comparable to those in which earlier concerts of Double Rice had been held? If the average capacity of the stadia in earlier concerts was, say around 100,000, selling that many tickets would certainly have taken a longer time than selling 30,000 tickets. If so, the shorter time in the case of Megalopolis cannot be attributed solely to the efficiency of Ad Lib. Secondly, it is quite likely that Megalopolis is a university town with a large population of youths in the age group 14 to 25 among whom there has been a recent surge in popularity of Double Rice, probably because one of its recent numbers has already been a big hit. In this case also, the quick sale of tickets for the Megalopolis concert may not be due entirely to Ad Lib’s publicity efforts. Moreover, the manager does not give information about the ission prices for the concert last year and this year. If the price was $10 last year and only $4 this year, this could be the real reason for the tickets having been sold out quickly, and


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no great credit is due to the advertising agency. The manager himself says that it was till about a year back that there had been some tardiness in the sale of tickets for Double Rice’s concerts, but that its popularity has since been increasing. The quickness of the sale of tickets in Megalopolis might have been due to the popularity that had been cumulatively built up during the past one year by other advertising agencies who had handled its concerts in other cities and towns. If so, giving the credit solely to Ad Lib for the group’s natinwide popularity would not be justified. Another relevant factor is the cost of publicity this year. If Ad Lib’s publicity budget was double those of earlier concerts, the additional expenditure would not be justified for the mere reason that the tickets were sold out within a limited period. Even assuming that Ad Lib had played a crucial role in the success of Double Rice’s concert in Megalopolis and it was also cost effective, how does the manager assume that Ad Lib, which might be an agency whose area of operation has so far been limited to this city, has the infrastructure, manpower and other resources to repeat its performance throughout the nation? All these points need clarification before the manager’s recommendation is acted upon. 20. Balmer Island’s hired mopeds The writer of the letter himself implies that the total number of mopeds and bicycles being rented out now in Balmer Island by the six rental companies is limited to 300 per day. He has not given figures of the populations of ‘owner-driven’ mopeds and other types of vehicles running in the island. If, for instance, there are over 2,000 owner-driven mopeds and 5000 cars running in the island, will the reduction of rented mopeds from 300 to 180 make a big difference to the accident statistics? Secondly, the writer has not given figures of the total number of accidents in Balmer Island involving mopeds, and how many of these are attributable to hired mopeds. If a predominant percentage of such accidents involve vehicles owned by the riders, there would obviously be no logical basis for the writer’s recommendation to reduce the number of hired mopeds. Even if it is true that the hirers of mopeds have been more prone to getting involved in accidents, the more effective solution is for the town council to introduce greater restrictions regarding the persons to whom the companies can rent out mopeds to, in of their age, how long they have possessed a driving license etc., and not by reducing the number of hired vehicles. Moreover, the reduction of hired mopeds in the island will force the tourists to engage taxis to visit the popular tourist spots, and the population of taxis will have to be increased thereby. Since four-wheeler vehicles occupy more road space than two-wheelers, this will add to the traffic problems in the island, and may even contribute to more number of accidents. Moreover, the pollution caused by four wheelers being more than that caused by two-wheelers, the attraction of the island as a tourist destination may also suffer in the long run. In of his recommendation, the writer cites the experience of the neighboring island Torseau where there was a 50% reduction in such accidents last year after its town council had imposed a similar restriction. In advancing this argument, the writer is adopting the common fallacy of holding that if Event B follows Event A, then Event B must have been caused by Event A, without considering that there might have been other more valid reasons for the occurrence of Event B. In this case, for example, in addition to the restriction pointed out by the writer, Torseau might have taken many other steps such as widening the roads, introducing more pedestrian crossings, introducing one-way restrictions along busy roads, increasing police surveillance etc. So, even assuming that there is some merit in the writer’s recommendation, his assertion that ‘the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction’ will not come true unless Balmer also takes these additional steps.


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For the above reasons, the recommendation of the writer of the letter cannot straightaway be acted upon by the civic authorities of Balmer Island. 21. Sartorian Company’s alpaca overcoats The argument advanced by the vice-president of Sartoria Company for resuming the production of deluxe alpaca overcoats is that a new fabric supplier has been found. He himself gives the reason why the company discontinued the production of such overcoats five years back: it had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric. The vice-president does not give any specific information about the ‘new fabric supplier’ to convince the management that the latter can be relied upon to supply high quality wool fabric consistently. If the former supplier of fabric for alpaca overcoats had failed in his commitments for reasons beyond his control - such as widespread deaths of alpaca sheep due to an epidemic, or restrictions on the import of the wool into the country - the new supplier may also fail if similar reasons arise again. This is the first major flaw in the note. Secondly, in order to buttress his argument that there will be a ‘pent-up demand’ for the product, the vice president says that the company has not offered alpaca overcoats for five years, and its major competitor has also discontinued the production of this item. I find a couple of problems here. The first sentence talks of ‘deluxe alpaca overcoats’, while the third sentence talks of just ‘alpaca overcoats’. It is not clear whether these two categories are different or are the same. If they are different, the note contains no information on why the company discontinued the production of even ordinary alpaca overcoats five years back. The reason could well be that the market for alpaca overcoats had ceased to exist because alternative artificial fibres, which are equally elegant and are much cheaper, have emerged. This could possibly explain why the company’s major competitor also discontinued production of this item. Assuming that these items are different, and there was a continuing demand for the deluxe alpaca overcoats, the vice-president does not envisage the possibility that such demand has been met either by imports or by smaller manufacturers whom his company had not considered as serious competitors earlier. If so, there would be no ‘pent-up demand’ for the item as assumed by him. In the last sentence, the vice-president says that the company’s profits will increase because it can price the alpaca overcoats at a high level, in line with the prices of most types of clothing which have increased substantially over the last five years. The most probable reason for the increase in the prices of other types of clothing is the increase in the price of raw materials. If the price of wool that will be bought from the new supplier has also gone up substantially during this period, the increase in profits projected by the vice-president will not materialize. Again, since alpaca overcoats are a luxury, it is a moot point whether the consumers will have the necessary purchasing power for buying them after they have had to pay escalated prices for their other day-to-day wear. The management of the company should seek further clarifications from the vicepresident on the above issues before it accepts his recommendation. 22. Steel City’s new homes The note gives historical information relating to the past five years (namely, that the population of Steel City had increased by more than 20 percent), and makes a recommendation that the company should build a larger number of houses next year than it did last year. The first flaw in this recommendation is that it overlooks the possibility that the needs of the additional population for housing have already been met by this company and its competitors in the last few years. If so, the proposal that the company should build more new houses next year by employing additional workers will be valid only if it is assumed that the population of Steel City will continue to


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increase. The note does not give any justification for this assumption. Secondly, the note does not say that the family incomes in Steel City are higher than the average national family income. It only says that the ‘rate of increase’ in the family income in Steel City is more than the national average. If the base figure of the average family income in Steel City five years back was considerably less than the average national figure, it is quite likely that the average family income in Steel City today is still less than the average national family income. If so, the speculation that there will be greater demand in Steel City for higher priced houses than for lower priced ones is not justified. This will be even more so if the increase in the population consisted more of lower paid factory workers than higher paid executives or managerial staff. Thirdly, if the higher rate of increase in average household income in Steel City is attributable mainly to those who already had high incomes, such persons are likely to be owners of houses already, and may not be prospective purchasers of this company’s new houses. Finally, the note also says that, by building and selling higher-priced houses, the ‘profits’ of the company will increase. However, the note cites no data to prove that higher-priced houses yield greater profits than lower-priced ones. If many of the higher priced houses remain unsold, the cost of carrying such unsold stock would, in fact, eat into the company’s present level of profits too. The note itself points out that, in order to achieve the purpose advocated by it, additional workers will have to be hired. Will the required additional workers be available in the city? If they are, hiring them will also lead to additional cost, and may eat into the profits of the company. For the recommendations in the note to be acted upon, the above concerns must first be addressed satisfactorily. 23. Bay City’s new seafood restaurant One of the reasons cited in the note for the recommendation to start a new restaurant in Bay City specializing in seafood is that the consumption of seafood in the city has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. The note, however, does not give the base figure over which this increase took place. Firstly, if seafood billing had formed only 10% of the total price of food eaten by restaurant customers five years back, it would have increased to just about 13% now. This, obviously, would not justify the opening of a special sea food restaurant in Bay City. This is also probably the reason why none of the existing restaurant owners has ventured to start a special seafood restaurant here. The second justification for the proposal is that a nationwide study has shown that two-income families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago. This statement is also quite vague. If the number of home-cooked meals eaten by such families a decade ago was 55 out of 60, and this has now come down to 45 out of 60, then a new specialized seafood restaurant may not be quite viable. If the corresponding figures are 55 and 25, then there would be some justification for the proposal. This point needs clarification. The third concern that has to be addressed is whether the behavior pattern of the two-income families in Bay City conforms to the national pattern. I would recommend a quick local survey to validate the presumption that it is indeed so. The note also implies that, in the opinion of two-income families, ‘eating healthily’ would mean ‘eating seafood’. It does not give justification for this unwarranted presumption. One more question that needs answer is whether a significant proportion of the population would like to have exclusive seafood so often as to make a specialized seafood restaurant to be viable. Finally, the note predicts that a specialized seafood restaurant in Bay City will prove to be both ‘popular’ and ‘profitable’. However, these two do not always go together. If the restaurant prices its menu with emphasis on profitability, it may lose its popularity. If it errs on the side of popularity by keeping its prices low,


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it may not be all that profitable. So, a much deeper study on the issues pointed out above is necessary before the management takes a decision in agreement with the above recommendation. 24. Viva Tech’s centralized plant The first statement of the president, that the closure of some of the small existing assembly plants and building a large central plant will reduce costs, has not been substantiated with relevant facts and figures. First of all, it is quite likely that each of the existing plants has specialized in the production of a particular equipment, has staff who are experienced in that line, and their productivity is quite high. It is also likely that the capital costs of the existing small units have already been fully amortized. Each of these units is probably in close proximity to the market for the particular item that it produces. If so, centralizing their production in a new plant employing new workers is not likely to lead to a reduction in cost. The president will have to clarify these points first. The choice of Grandview for the proposed new plant is sought to be justified with a number of reasons, but these also do not appear to be sound prima facie. The fact that Grandview has the largest adult population need not straightaway imply that the proposed factory will get employees easily and quickly. If a large proportion of this adult population are aged above 50, and those of lesser age are already employed, this prognosis will fail. For validating the presumption in the note, the percentage of unemployed population in the age group preferred by the company will have to be ascertained first. It is stated that the company produces ‘high tech’ medical equipment. It obviously needs highly skilled workers in its employment. How many among the unemployed population in Grandview will fall in this category is also a question for concern. Thirdly, the wage payable to such highly skilled workers, if at all they are available locally, cannot obviously be determined on the basis of the present average wage level of workers in Grandview, because most of these workers may be employed in low tech industries. Fourthly, the note refers to the moratorium in city taxes for three years offered by the Grand View’s town council as another point in favor of locating the new center there. Again, the note does not quantify the consequent benefit to enable us to judge whether this should be a major consideration in deciding the location of the plant. If the city taxes form a minuscule 0.1% of the total annual expenses of the proposed factory, this concession should not play any role in decision-making. If it forms 40% of the total annual expenses, there would be justification for the recommendation. The president must clarify this point too. The price of land should be a major consideration in deciding upon the location of the proposed factory. The note does not indicate the price of land in Grand View vis-a-vis the price in other competitive locations. It does not also indicate whether the other town councils, where it is possible to get cheaper land, were also approached for concession in taxes similar to what is offered by Grand View town council. The note of the president is deficient in a number of respects as pointed out above, and he should be called upon to examine the matter de novo and present a fresh note. 25. Hopewell’s new golf course The major flaw in the Hopewell mayor’s memo is the classical one of presuming that if event B follows event A, then event B must have been caused by event A. He attributes the increase in tourism, increase in the number of businesses and the increase in the tax revenues of Ocean View in the last two years solely to the building of a new golf course and a new resort hotel there. While it may be logical to presume that the building of a new golf course and a new resort hotel led to an increase in tourism and also some increase in tax


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revenues, the increase in the number of new businesses and a 30% increase in tax revenues could well have been due to other reasons such as an increase in the rate of tax, or the imposition of a new type of tax. The note does not even try to explore these reasons. In fact, even for the observed increase in tourism, there could be other reasons not explored by the mayor, such as the starting of a number of new industries, the construction of a large number of houses etc. The mayor also does not assert that the terrain and climate of Hopewell would it of the construction of a golf course there. As its name suggests, Ocean View is probably a beach resort and has been attracting tourists even earlier, and the new golf course is only an additional attraction for them. It is not likely that a mere golf course attracts tourists to a place. While stating that the tax revenues of Ocean View had increased by 30% in the last two years, the mayor does not give comparative figures of the tax revenues of the two towns. If the tax revenue of Ocean View two years back was $50,000, it would have since increased to $65,000. If Hopewell’s tax revenue even now is $1,000,000, then an increase of $15,000 that could be generated by a new golf course and a new resort hotel would not be of much consequence to this town. Note that the mayor does not say that Hopewell should build a better golf course and a better resort hotel than Ocean View, but suggests the construction of ‘similar’ ones. If Ocean View has already enrolled a majority of the prospective clients for these facilities, why should they now abandon Ocean View and come to Hopewell? Finally, the note would have logical validity if it had said that a new golf course and a new resort hotel would result in some increase in tourism in Hopewell also. But the mayor recommends these measures as the ‘best’ way ‘to improve Hopewell’s economy’ and ‘generate additional tax revenues’. To validate his statement, he should have discussed other alternative proposals and shown how his recommendation is superior to all of them for achieving these results. As it stands now, the recommendation of the mayor has serious lacunae and cannot be acted upon straightaway. 26. Saluda’s music director The memo from the chairperson of the School Board seeks to persuade the management that Charles Schade, present music director at Steel City High School, would be the most suitable person to plan and direct the general music education system of the entire Saluda music system. But a few concerns should be clarified by her before her recommendation is accepted. The first justification cited by her is that, during the past 5 years that Schade was music director there, the Steel City High School won three regional band competitions. The presumption that this feat of the school band was solely due to the efforts of Schade is not substantiated. It is quite likely that this school already had a strong music tradition established by its former music teachers and Schade had merely followed their footsteps. In fact, if the school had won the band contest during the first three years after he took over and had lost it during the immediately preceding two years, it would even mean that the earlier winning streak of the school had been broken because of his incompetence. If this be the case, he could hardly be considered suitable for a more challenging assignment relating to a whole district. Similarly, the improvement in the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments in Steel City High School during the last five years might have been due to the initiative taken by someone other than Mr. Schade, such as the Principal or the President of the School Committee, and Mr. Schade might have merely implemented it. If this be the case, the full credit for them being attributed to Mr. Schade may not be justified. Even assuming that Mr. Schade has been an outstanding music director of Steel City High School, his success may have been due to his being a good music conductor or band master himself, or a personal motivator of individual musically-talented


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students. Will such talents be sufficient or even relevant for manning a post whose main function is planning and directing the general music education programs for an entire school system of a city? Improvement of music education in a single school would have required a relatively small financial outlay, but the total expenditure for an entire school system is likely to be substantial. Does the Saluda school system have enough budgetary provision to implement a music education improvement in the entire school district within a short period? Finally, the note does not discuss any alternative name for the post. Is there noone within the Saluda school system or in any other neighboring school whose credentials are even superior to those of Mr. Schade and who can also be considered for this position? Finally, has Mr. Schade been sounded at least informally and his consent obtained for the proposal? These questions will have to be satisfactorily answered before the recommendation in the memo is acted upon. 27. Automate Inc’s plan to retain its employees The note of the president of Automate may be understood in two ways: (i) It is only by offering salaries equal to those paid by Sparks that Automate can retain its best employees; (ii) By offering salaries equal to those paid by Sparks, Automate can definitely retain its best employees. The first point to be noted is that Automate is an automobiles manufacturer while Sparks is a general manufacturing company. While some operations in both these companies may require identical skills, not every worker in Automate may qualify for a job in Sparks. It is quite likely that those who have already left Automate to Sparks possessed these common skills and preferred a company which paid them higher salaries. If the others are not likely to be offered jobs by Sparks either in their first plant or subsequent plants for the reason that their skills do not match Sparks’ requirements, there is no point in Automate increasing its salary bill. This issue must be clarified first. Secondly, it is not the quantum of salary that alone motivates an employee to continue to work in a company. The location of the plant is a major factor. If Automate is located in a major town with a good climate and all infrastructural facilities such as good schools, good hospitals, entertainment avenues etc, and the new plants of Sparks are going to be in greenfield sites without these attributes and in less congenial climates, the best employees of Automate may not be lured merely by the higher salaries offered by Sparks. Moreover, it is likely that the spouses of most of the employees of Automate are also employed in the same town and will lose their income if the family relocates in Sparks’ place. In this case also, a higher salary for one of the spouses in Sparks may not be a great attraction for the family to relocate at the new place. On the other hand, if most of the workers of Automate do possess skills which are sought by Sparks also, and the locations of Sparks’ factories are also equally attractive, then merely matching of salaries may not guarantee that they continue to be loyal to Automate. This company will have to match all other non-quantifiable facilities that Sparks offers to its employees such as a better environment, more congenial work culture and more up-to-date equipment. The above points must first be clarified before the Automate Board of Directors take a decision to irrevocably increase their salary bill. 28. Mylar’s plan for free breakfast for students Based on a study involving 100 children in the age group 5 to 12 who were provided breakfast at school, the superintendent of Mylar school district advocates the provision of breakfasts for all students before each school day. He claims that this would reduce absenteeism and tardiness, and improve academic performance in all of Mylar’s elementary and secondary schools. The justification cited by him for the suggestion is that the study showed that


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children on the breakfast plan were more regular in attending school and were more prompt in arriving on time. The first flaw in his suggestion is his presumption that the experience with 100 students can be extrapolated to the entire student community in the district. If the total number of students in Mylar district is 5,000, a mere 100 among them would be too small a sample for influencing a decision involving major financial implications. The second problem is that he presumes that these 100 students were representative, in of their economic conditions, of the entire student population of Mylar district. If these 100 students were from the poorest strata of the Mylar society and could not afford healthy breakfast at home, the experience with them cannot be extrapolated to all other students most of whom may be affluent enough to have much better quality of breakfast at home and may not care for the breakfast supplied in school. We may readily agree with the superintendent’s statement that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. But his recommendation that, therefore, breakfast must be provided in schools throughout Mylar district ‘to improve academic performance’ assumes that most of these students do not take breakfast at home now. This is obviously an unreasonable presumption. If most students are already used to having a healthful breakfast at home before they come to school, then replacing home breakfast with school breakfast will hardly improve their academic performance. The age group of the 100 children involved in the study was 5 to 12, while most students of secondary school would be in the age group 13 to 16. One other flaw in the superintendent’s recommendation is the extrapolation of the behavior of the first group of students to the second group also. The superintendent does not indicate the source from which the additional expenditure involved in his suggestion will be met. Will the local body be prepared to meet the cost, or will the parents be asked to pay for the breakfast to be provided by the school? If the latter be the case, has he ascertained the willingness of at least a majority of the parents to do so? The superintendent must be asked to give satisfactory answers to all the questions in an additional memo before the authorities can agree to his suggestion.

29. Ida McAllister as next Mayor In recommending that Ida McAllister should lay emphasis on environmental causes for winning the next Mayoral election, the author of the note presumes that the voting preference of Lake City citizens is predominantly based on the candidates’ stand on environment. There is no information in the note for ing this presumption. Assuming that environment is a major concern of the voter, and Ida’s defeat last time was only because her successful rival was seen as being more committed to environmental causes than she was, it is quite likely that he has been aggressively implementing environment-preservation schemes during his tenure. If so, why should the voter now decide to vote him out and install in his place a new convert to the cause? In of his recommendation that, in order to prove her commitment to environmental cause, Ida should promise to close all Lake City’s parks to automobile traffic, the author of the note cites the example of Alecia Yu, a former mayor of another city Plainsville, who had taken a similar step there on the advice of a ‘small group of concerned citizens’. This example raises the doubt that, though this step might have had the approval of this small minority who credited him with improving the quality of life in Plainsville, it was really unpopular with a much larger number of voters who were earlier conveniently driving through these parks to reach their places of work and suffered gross inconvenience because of the ban. In fact, this might have been the reason why Yu could not win the re-election and ended up as a ‘former’ mayor. If this be the case, an aspiring mayoral candidate announcing such a potentially


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unpopular step even during the election campaign would be suicidal for her, and may result in her securing less than even the 30% vote she got last time! Again, on the basis of the fact that most citizens of Lake City participate in the community’s recycling program, the writer presumes that they would all an announcement to close all Lake City’s parks to automobile traffic. Taking part in the recycling program does not affect anyone adversely, whereas closing the parks to automobile traffic may cause considerable inconvenience to a large number of commuting citizens. So, the for the former does not ipso facto imply an equal for the latter. Finally, the assertion that the announcement would ‘guarantee McAllister’s success in her current quest to be Lake City’s new mayor’ does not take into consideration the possibility that the citizens of Lake View would be more concerned with the candidates’ stand on other problems of the city such as water supply, economic development, education etc. For the foregoing reasons, Ida McAllister would do well not to go by the recommendation in the note during her election campaign, and steer clear of any talk about banning driving through the parks . 30. Elliottown’s tourism record The purpose of the note is to plead for a significant increase in the funding for the Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year in Elliottown. But the justifications given by the author for this recommendation are hardly convincing. Firstly, he himself quotes the local gazette to show that the number of people who travel to the town has increased significantly ‘over the past several years’, namely even years before the park and the museum were opened. Therefore there must be a strong reason other than last year’s opening of the park and the museum that has been the cause for the increasing numbers of travelers to the town even last year. The figures quoted by him are that, during the last three years, the numbers of people who ‘arrived at the local airport’ were 40000, 80000 and 100000, while the numbers ‘received at the local train station’ were 20000, 40000 and 50000. Note that the author does not corroborate these figures of arrivals at transit points in the town with evidence of a corresponding increase in the number of hotel rooms and their occupancy ratios. This gives rise to the suspicion that these additional Travellers are merely ing through Eliottown, and are headed towards a popular tourist center which can be reached only via this town, and which has improved on its attractions in the last three years. If this is the real state of affairs, there is hardly any justification for the claim that ‘tourism’ in Eliottown has increased, and the consequent attribution of such false claim to the opening of a central park and a museum there. Commonsense also dictates that a park is mainly attractive only to local residents and hardly ever enthuses hordes of outsiders to swarm to it, unless it is known for its ancient or rare trees such as the Redwood Forests in California with 2500-year-old Sequoia trees. How a mere one-year-old park in a small town can attract tourists to visit it is beyond one’s comprehension. The author also tries to bamboozle the reader with annual figures of travelers that run into thousands. But break these figures down to their daily average, and what do you get? The increase in daily arrivals in airports is from 110 to 220 to 280, and that at the railway station is from 55 to 110 to 140! These figures can hardly be said to put Eliottown on the tourist map of the nation! It is even likely that quite a substantial number of the increase in arrivals in both the airport and train station in Eliottown are ed for by travels of Eliottown’s own residents. So, while Eliottown’s park and museum may deserve additional funding, it is not for the reasons enumerated by the author of this note.


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31. Cell phone use by drivers The argument of the author is that only some drivers using hand-held cell phones, and not a majority of them, cause problems on the road including serious accidents, and that therefore it is sheer folly to legally prohibit the use of such cell phones by drivers. The perversity of this argument is obvious because it can be applied equally to drunken driving, or driving by minors, or driving without a license. Not everyone indulging in these activities causes a serious accident. Would the author of this article argue equally vehemently that drunken driving or driving without license should be legalized? The author of this editoriaal has clearly misunderstood the rationale behind prohibiting the use of handheld cell phones by drivers. It is true that the phone call distracts the driver, but that is not the reason behind the ban. The real reason is that, while using the handheld cell phone, the driver has the use of only one hand for steering the vehicle. Driving requires the continuous use of both hands on the steering wheel, in order to have control over the vehicle in the case of an unforeseen an emergency. The parallels cited by him, of listening to a radio or disciplining children, though they could be distractive, do not lessen the physical control of the driver over his vehicle. So, equating the use of handheld cell phone by a vehicle driver with listening to radio has no logical force. Moreover, a driver has to have his eyes always on the road. That is why fixing a television set in the front of a vehicle has been banned, even though there is no such prohibition for a radio. The ban on the use of handheld cell phones by drivers has a similar rationale. The last line in the article contains an equally spurious logic. Noone is proposing to ban the use of cell phone which is indeed a convenient device, particularly during emergencies. If the driver is faced with such an emergency, he can certainly stop the car, pull it to a side, and use the cell phone to seek help. The recommendation in the article is thus based on false assumptions and illogical parallels, and deserves no consideration. 32. Hiparia’s shopping malls Even the fact cited by the author is that people in Hiparia are just ‘beginning’ to do most of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. It is quite likely that this could prove to be a beginner’s fad; people may again resort to shopping in malls because they might feel that they are missing the pleasure of looking at and touching a large variety of items before they decide to make a purchase. If this happens, his prognosis that there will be a reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia will not materialize. Secondly, even assuming that people will continue to shop by ordering items from mail-order catalogs and the Internet, reaching these items to them will involve the consumption of fuel by the delivery services which generally use bigger vehicles than those of consumers. The author does not cite relative statistics of these two types of consumption of fuel to enable us to decide whether there will be a net increase or a net reduction in such consumption. Again, using mail order or Internet for purchase of merchandise is possible only for planned items. People will still have to make across-the-counter purchases when they require fresh items such as milk or bread, or emergency medicines etc. Such purchases would continue to require travel. The author also assumes that people visit malls only for buying articles. Shopping malls usually house a number of other services such as restaurants, beauty parlors and gymnasia, and people generally combine the use of these services along with shopping. Even if they do their merchandise shopping through mail order or Internet, they will continue to visit the malls for these purposes. Consequently there may not be any appreciable reduction of consumption of fuel by them. Finally, the author assumes that the people will not use the time saved in not having to visit shopping malls by undertaking other travels which may require even higher fuel consumption. The validity of this assumption is also open to question.


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For the above reasons, the forecast of the writer that there will be a net reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia is not likely to materialize. 33. Ceramic pots at prehistoric sites The dispute among archaeologists, according to the author, is on whether the distinctively shaped ceramic pots scattered in prehistoric sites over a wide area were spread through the migration of potters or through trade. Having referred to this dispute, the author makes a categorical assertion that an analysis of prehistoric human skeletons can settle this debate. The first flaw in his argument is that he cites no authority for the assertion that bone-analysis is the final arbiter to decide whether the person concerned was a local resident or a migrant. Secondly, even assuming that he is correct on this count, he does not cite any authority for his assertion that a single parameter, namely the presence or absence of a particular metallic content in the bones, can settle the issue once for all. Even assuming it is so, his further presumption that the bones found near the pots at a few sites were those of the potters and not of the s of the pots is without any rational basis. If the latter is true, the pots themselves could well have reached these places through trade, and were only used by the local residents, and not made by them. Another unwarranted assumption that he makes is that the metallic element in the bones had only come from the food eaten by the persons concerned. He has not considered the possibility that it might have been due to genetic reasons or from some drug that they had taken during a particular epidemic or some other similar reason. Again, his assertion that high levels of the metallic element contained in various foods are strongly associated with ‘people who migrated to a new place after childhood’ is itself illogical. While a particular group of migrants may have been fond of a particular food, how can anyone believe that all persons who decided to migrate from one place to another had developed a liking for that food? Even if the author’s theory is accepted, the metallic content would be found in the bones of only the first generation of the migrant potters. Does he want us to believe that all the bones found near the pots were those of such first generation of migrants? Even according to the author, the bones with high levels of the metallic element were found near the pots at only ‘a few’ prehistoric sites. The extrapolation of the finding relating to a few sites to ‘various prehistoric sites scattered over a wide area’ is again irrational. The basic raw material for the potter’s trade is a suitable type of clay. If the potters had, in fact, migrated to various historic sites scattered over a wide area, it must first be shown that the type of clay required for the distinctively made ceramic pots was available at all these sites. The report is silent on this point. Families migrating from their usual place of residence to a new place can be expected to carry their possessions required for personal use in the new place. They do not usually carry their stock-in-trade during such migrations, particularly when the stocks are such fragile items as mud pots. Note that the report relates to ‘prehistoric sites’: were the means of transport during those days conducive to the safe transport of mud pots by migrants? The thory of the author bristles with many infirmities as above, and cannot be accepted. 34. Osteoporosis and milk products The second sentence says that osteoporosis is a disease that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors, and that intake of milk and dairy products which are rich in vitamin D and calcium ‘can’ help prevent osteoporosis in old age. The next sentence talks of the result of a study of ‘a large number’ of people which showed that those who had consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of study had a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the


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city. One question that arises immediately is whether the ‘large number’ (which has not been specifically quantified) was really large enough and representative enough to lead to a general conclusion about the entire population as adumbrated in the large sentence. If the ‘large number’ was just a few hundreds, then the effect of dairy products on them cannot be extrapolated to the whole of humanity. Secondly, if those among the sample population who had been taking dairy products were also those whose genetic background and environment were more conducive to their developing osteoporosis, then the higher incidence of bone fracture among them may be due to these factors and not to their consumption of dairy products. It could even be argued that, if they had not been consuming dairy products, their susceptibility to bone fractures might have been even greater than what was observed. Similarly, if the persons in the sample group who exhibited bone fractures were much older than those who did not, even then the bone fractures might have been due to their age and not due to the consumption of dairy products. Again, the author refers to only the ‘rate of bone fractures’ and does not mention the actual numbers of ‘those who consistently consumed dairy products and also had bone fractures’ and ‘the other participants’. It is quite likely that the former group consisted of only 100 persons and 52 of them (or 52%) had suffered bone fractures, while the latter group (who did not consume milk or dairy products) consisted of 5000 persons and 2500 of them (or 50%) had suffered bone fractures. If so, the author’s conclusion that consumption of dairy products increases the risk of osteoporosis will be totally unsound. Moreover, the author himself says that bone fracture is ‘a symptom’ of osteoporosis. This means that every bone fracture may not have been caused by osteoporosis, and could have been due to other reasons such as cancer of the bone. It is quite likely that the bone fractures of a majority of the persons observed in the study might have been due to such other reasons and not osteoporosis. For the foregoing reasons, I would not be deterred by what this author says, but will continue to consume milk and dairy products! 35. Mentia residents and salicylates The fact that salicylates are of the same chemical family as aspirin does not immediately imply that salicycates can be used as a drug substitute for aspirin. Had this been so, drug companies would long ago have started producing pills based on salicycates, particularly when this is ‘richly available’ in many foods. The fact that it is only food processing companies and not drug companies which use them would imply that salicycates, while they are good food preservatives, do not lend themselves to conversion as drugs. As the author of the note says, aspirin itself is not used as a ‘preventive’ for headaches, but is used only to ‘treat’ them. He claims that the rise in the use of salicycates by the food processing industry has been contemporaneous with ‘lesser incidence’ of headaches in the sample population. According to the writer’s thinking, salicycates are even more potent than aspirin because they are even able to ‘prevent’ headaches! If so, the drug companies must have by this time directly exploited this preventive potential of salicycates rather than leaving it to food processing firms to use it as food preservatives or flavour additives. Since drug companies have not done so, their own experiments must have contradicted the conclusion in this note. For arriving at his conclusion, the author correlates the ‘rise in commercial use of salicylates as preservatives by food-processing companies’ to ‘a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our 20-year study’. Note that he does not even assert that the participants in the study had been regularly consuming the food items containing salicylates. If most of the participants in the study had not been consuming such food at all, the bottom is knocked out of the author’s conclusion. Since many food items are ‘naturally rich’ in salicycates, the author must also clarify whether the amounts added as preservatives to the food items are of such large magnitude as to make a difference to the propensity of their consumers to


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suffer headaches. Finally, in forecasting that the use of salicycates as flavor additives in food items will lead to a reduction in the incidence of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia, the author presumes that these food items will become popular with the average citizen of Mentia. He does not give any ing evidence to justify this presumption. If a large percentage of Mentia’s population are used to consuming freshly cooked food and not preserved food, the author’s prognosis will not come true. For the foregoing reasons, I am not in a position to agree with the conclusion in the given note. 36. Dr. Karp on Dr. Field On the basis of his ‘recent’ interviews with children in the ‘group of islands which includes Tertia’ (the results of which are contradictory to the conclusion of Dr. Field that had been based on his observations in the island of Tertia twenty years ago), Dr. Karp comes to two conclusions: (i) Dr. Field’s thesis about Tertian village culture is false, and (ii) the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Dr. Karp must first tell us what percent of the number of children he had interviewed in the island group were from Tertia. If a predominant percent of the interviewees had belonged to other islands in the group, their experience with their biological parents cannot be taken as applicable to Tertian children also. This is because the cultures of all tribes in different islands even in the same geographical region need not be identical. Secondly, the fact that children talked more about their biological parents than about other adults in the society does not by itself nullify Dr. Field’s conclusion. It is quite possible that, even while the entire village takes responsibility for rearing all the children there, the children themselves spend relatively more time with their respective biological parents. If this be the case, it is not surprising that they are prone to talk more about the parents than about others. Thirdly, Dr. Karp criticizes a 20-year-old finding of Dr. Field on the basis of his recent study. It is quite likely that both are correct - the child rearing pattern in Tertia might have changed significantly in the last twenty years for various reasons. At best, this is the logical conclusion that Dr. Karp can come to. His assertion that ‘Dr. Field’s conclusion about Tertian village culture is false’ is not only illogical but is even unethical. No wonder he has been named ‘Dr. Karp’! Even if we agree with Dr. Karp that Dr. Field had indeed been wrong in his conclusion about child-rearing pattern in Tertia, he is not justified in making the sweeping statement that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. He himself concedes that Dr. Field is a ‘noted anthropologist’. If Dr. Field had been using the observation-centered method for coming to his conclusions and if this method was so blatantly wrong, he could not have gained reputation as a ‘noted anthropologist’! Since the author has not conclusively established that the ‘interview-centered’ method is superior to the ‘observation’ method, the assertion in his last sentence also does not have force. His assumption that the result of a study in Tertia can be extrapolated to all other island cultures is even more invalid. 37. Palea village and its baskets On the basis of the discovery of a single ‘Palean’ basket in Lithos, the author comes to the conclusion that such baskets were not unique to Palean people as is generally believed. The first presumption of the writer is that because Palean people were not capable of taking such baskets to Lithos, the basket found in Lithos must have been made locally. He does not cite any basis for this presumption. It is quite likely that the Lithos people were more enterprising and had the knowledge of making boats by which they had crossed the Brim river and taken the Palean baskets, along with other commodities, back to their own place. If this could for the discovery


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of the single basket in Lithos, this item could still have been unique to Palea. The second assumption of the writer is that Brim River had never got dry, but he does not cite evidence for this presumption. If this river, like most rivers all over the world, was flooded mainly during rains but could become dry or shallow during other seasons, Palean people could have easily crossed it for trade and for other purposes even without having to use a boat. This could also for the discovery of a Palean basket in Lithos, and could still be consistent with the uniqueness of the basket to Palea. Moreover, lack of archaeological evidence available now is not conclusive proof that Palean people did not know of the use of boats. It is not necessary to have boats ‘capable of carrying a group of people and cargo’ to transport a mere basket across a river. Palean people probably were using relatively smaller boats for their trade, and these had been made of such perishable items that no archaeological evidence about them is available now. Finally, the argument that Paleans would have had no need to cross the river because the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game is obviously unsound. Even ancient people did not live on ‘nuts, berries and small game’ alone. They would certainly have needed cereals as well as clothing materials. If these were available only across the river, they would certainly have discovered the means of crossing it, and could have bartered their unique baskets for purchasing these items. Even on this point, the author says that the woods around Palea ‘are’ full of nuts, berries and small game. On what evidence does he presume that the conditions around Palea had remained the same during prehistoric periods? For the foregoing reasons, I would not agree with the conclusion of the author of this note. 38. West Meria and fish food The major flaw in the memo is that it seeks to arrive at its conclusion from a comparison between the ‘number of visits to doctors in East Meria for treatment of colds’ with the ‘number of excuses given in West Meria for absences from school and work’. If most of the latter are false and are spuriously given only for the purpose of malingering, the very assumption that people of East Meria are less prone to colds than those of West Meria would be wrong. If medical records are scrutinized, it may probably be found that people of West Meria are also visiting doctors for treatment for colds only once or twice a year. On the same token, if school and factory records of East Meria are scrutinized, it would most probably be found that absenteeism due to alleged colds is as rampant there as it is in West Meria! Even assuming that people in East Meria are less prone to attacks of cold than those in West Meria, in attributing this phenomenon solely to a ‘high fish consumption’ there, the memo suffers from the classical fallacy of connecting two observed phenomena as a cause and its effect, without considering the possibility that the two may be totally unrelated, and that there could be other more valid reasons for the observed result. The more agreeable climate in East Meria could possibly the real reason for less incidence of cold there. Also, since most colds are caused by allergy, a relatively less polluted atmosphere in East Meria could be another real cause. The author must have discussed and ruled out all such causes before making his assertion. Moreover, the author does not cite figures to prove that the present average consumption of fish in West Meria is less than that in East Meria. Finally, even assuming that consuming fish does reduce one’s susceptibility to colds, whether a fish oil derivative such as Ichthaid will have the same effect as fish as a direct food is also open to question. Even assuming that the daily consumption of Ichthaid will prevent colds in West Meria, it does not follow that workers and students who wish to malinger will not continue to cite cold as the alleged reason for their absence. So, the assertion in the memo that consumption of Ichthaid will lower absenteeism in work places and schools is not likely to materialize.


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For the above reasons, I am not in a position to agree with the recommendation in the memo straightaway. 39. Omni University & Humana College In this memorandum, the president of Humana College recommends that the college should emulate the nearby Omni University in starting long-distance degree programs. The first flaw in the memorandum is the comparison of a percentage figure relating to just one year of Omni University with the absolute figures of Humana College relating to a period of three years. If the number of students in long-distance degree programs of Omni University had merely increased from 100 to 150 in one year, while the enrollment at Humana College has decreased from 1000 to 960 in three years, there would really be no cause for concern for the latter’s management, and Omni would certainly not be an ideal to emulate. The president also has not ascertained whether, even while the enrollment in long-distance degree programs in Omni University had increased, the enrollment in its classroom programs had increased or decreased. If there had been a considerable decrease in its classroom programs last year, then again Omni is not fit to be emulated by Humana. Even in respect of expenditures on classroom and dormitory, it is quite likely that Omni University had incurred substantial capital expenditure in the previous two years and had therefore no need to incur much expenditure for this purpose last year. For a logical comparison, the expenditures incurred by both institutions on similar items during the same three-year period must first be ascertained. Another point that needs to be studied is whether the courses offered by Omni University and Humana College are comparable. Not all courses lend themselves to distance learning. If most of the courses offered by Humana College belong to this category, then the step suggested in the note will not be successful. For classroom enrollments, a college usually competes with only a neighboring university. But, in enrolling students for distance learning, a college has to compete with all universities across the nation offering similar courses. Does the Humana College have faculty and other resources to successfully compete with all other universities in the country that are offering distance learning? Will a degree awarded by a mere college have the same prestige or marketability as one awarded by a university? These concerns must first be addressed satisfactorily before the recommendation in the note can be acted upon. 40. Excello Food Markets & organic food First of all, the recommendation in the memo is based on the fact that, in 90 towns in which the national chain Excello has branches, it is facing competition from natural-food stores. In how many towns and cities throughout the nation does Excello have branches and how representative are these 90 towns for influencing a nation-wide decision? There is no gainsaying the fact that concern about pesticides and chemical preservation is increasing and that more and more people are gradually switching over to organic food products. Thus, any food store would do well to provide this option to its customers. But the assertion in this memo that this has to be done ‘to increase our profits’ implies that the margin of profit in buying and selling organic food items is greater than in trading in conventional food items. The note does not give facts and figures to justify this assertion. If the profit margin on organic products is much less than on conventional items, it is quite likely that the competitive outlets opened recently will become non-viable and close down soon. In such a scenario, the better option for Excello will be to continue its conventional food items and, in addition, open a special counter where organic food products are made available for catering to the special clientele. The fact that a large proportion (75%) of the visitors to the Excello booth in


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Sun City fair asked for ‘free’ samples of organic fruit implies that they were not willing to pay for it. If this group is considered representative of the prospective customers of organic food items, it is not likely that the profits on organic food would be more than the profits on conventional food items. Also note that this group asked for organic fruit alone and not other preserved organic food items. So, their behavior cannot assure high sales of organic food products. I would, however, be inclined to agree that, in order to cater to a new type of fastidious clientele, Excello must open special counters where organic food items are sold, but not necessarily because of the unsubstantiated claim that these items will generate more profit. 41. Fly-Away Pest-Control Company’s efficiency In this memo, the vice-president of the food-distribution company recommends the re-hiring of the more expensive Buzzoff Company in place of Fly-Away Pest-Control Company for providing pest control services in its Palm City fast-food warehouse. The recommendation of the vice-president would have been more persuasive if he had established that the warehouse in Palm City and the warehouse in Wintervale are strictly comparable both in of the types of items and the total quantities stored in each. The memo itself makes a distinction between the types of food stored in the two places. The first is mentioned as a ‘fast food’ warehouse while the second is mentioned merely as storing ‘food’. If ‘fast food’ is inherently more susceptible to pest damage than just ‘food’, then a comparison of the efficiencies of the two agencies on the basis of the reported results would not be justified. Secondly, the note does not mention the different quantities of food stored in the two warehouses. If the former had $5 million worth of food items and suffered damages of $20,000, while the latter had $40,000 worth of food items and suffered a damage of $10,000, it is the former agency which should be considered to be more efficient. Thirdly, the climate of a place and the surroundings of the warehouse also play a role in pest attack. Are the warehouses in Palm City and Wintervale comparable in respect of these two parameters? If the former is more prone to pest attack than the latter, even then one cannot come to the conclusion that Fly Away is less efficient than Buzz Off. Fourthly, the note says that Buzz Off had been used for many years by this company. If so, its past record relating to the Palm City warehouse must be available in its archives. The vice president will have to show that, other things being equal, the record of Buzz Off in Palm City warehouse in the earlier years was superior to that of Fly Away last year. This would, in fact, be the acid test for comparing their relative efficiencies. Finally, even assuming that engaging Fly Away is likely to result in more pest damage, it should be examined whether this additional damage gets set off by the lower fee payable to it, so that there is still a net saving of money to the company. As it stands, the recommendation of the vice president appears to be motivated and not objective. The management should ascertain additional facts as pointed out above before it acts on it. 42. Paraterra’s attempt to promote ecotourism The note does not establish beyond doubt that the advertising campaign of Bellegea to promote ecotourism had indeed been successful. The statement that the number of foreign visitors arriving at its main airport ‘doubled’ does not mean anything, unless it is quantified. If the number had doubled from just 200 to 400, the campaign cannot be said to have been successful, whereas if the figures were 20,000 and 40,000, there would be substance in the given argument. The minister must first answer this question satisfactorily. Secondly, he does not establish that the increase in arrival of foreigners in Bellegea’s main airport was caused by the promotion of ecotourism. He does not


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convincingly rule out any other reason for such increase such as increased economic activity, the establishment of new convention centers, the promotion of a new golf course or a Disneyland type of fun center etc. The same holds good for the 10% increase in the per capita income of that country. Could there not have been other more valid reasons for such increase, such as the establishment of a new industry? The note is silent on this point also. Assuming that the campaign had indeed been successful in Bellegea, on what basis does the minister argue that an identical strategy will succeed in Paraterra? He does not assert that the two countries are similarly placed in respect of ecotourism. On the contrary, he says that Paraterra is a ‘tiny country’, implying that Bellegea is not so tiny. So, what worked in the case of the latter may not work in the case of Paraterra. His recommendation in the last sentence that the current director of Bellegea’s National Tourism Office should be hired as the consultant for the proposed campaign is not quite sound. It is quite likely that this functionary would consider Paraterra to be a rival to Bellegea for garnering the tourists’ dollars. In this case, there would be a conflict of interests between his allegiance to his own country and his obligation as a consultant to Paraterra. If this happens, one cannot expect that he would give his best attention to the promotion of ecotourism in this rival country. For the foregoing reasons, I would not agree with the recommendation of the finance minister straightaway. 43. Rialto and Apex Theater The first assumption of the manager of Rialto Theater is that the pool of moviegoers is declining. He justifies this assumption on the basis of the views of ’85% of the respondents to a recent survey’ that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times a year. The note does not quantify the population of the town, the number surveyed and the number of those who responded to the survey. If the population of the town is 100,000, of whom 1000 persons were surveyed and only 100 of them actually responded to the survey, then the reported view would be that of just 65 out of 100,000, and cannot be considered to be a good enough sample to be acted upon. Secondly, the note also does not give the economic profile of those who were surveyed and who responded, and whether they are representative of the customary patrons of Rialto Movie Theater. Assuming that they are, there is an inherent contradiction in the manager’s recommendation. The capital expenditure on plush carpeting and seats as well as on a new sound system proposed by him would, in fact, necessitate further increase in the ission price of Rialto. This would make going to movies even less affordable to its prospective clients. In fact, his recommendation to make big changes at huge cost may accelerate its ‘closing for ever’, a prospect he finds threatening. Assuming that the theater has 200 seats with a break-even attendance of 100, it requires only 300 visitors on each day for its three shows. This works out to 10,800 visitors for 360 days. If each of these persons attends five movies a year, the theater has to rely on just 2160 regular clients, which should not be too difficult for a downtown theater of 50 year vintage. So, there seems to be no justification for the manager’s apprehension that the theater will have to close its doors for ever. Finally, assuming that high ission rates for new movies does pose a challenge to its survival, one possible solution is to screen time-honored movie classicals and occupy a special niche in the movie theater market without any additional capital cost. The manager has not examined this possibility before uttering his doomsday prediction that ‘it will have to close its doors for ever’. In anticipating a threat to Rialto’s share of moviegoers from Apex, the manager assumes that, when the same film is being screened in both theaters, residents of the downtown area would be willing to incur additional expenditure to travel to the mall outside the town, just in order to enjoy its improved features. This assumption goes against the result of the survey he has himself quoted which emphasized the costconsciousness of most respondents.


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For these reasons, I am not inclined to agree with the doomsday prediction of the manager. 44. Monarch Books and Regal Books In this note the business manager of Monarch Books asserts that opening a cafe would ‘clearly attract more customers to the book shop’, but he does not substantiate this assertion with any evidence. He does not even say that the rival, Regal Books, has started attracting more customers after it opened its cafe. He himself enumerates the strengths of Monarch Books as its ‘having been at the same place for over twenty years’, ‘having a wide selection of books on all subjects’ and ‘having a large customer base’. His presumption that these strengths will be nullified just because its rival had opened a cafe in its premises sounds thoroughly illogical. After all, people go to book shops to buy books and not to take coffee! In fact, there is an inherent contradiction in his note itself. If the cafe is going to be attractive to its present ‘large customer base’ and will also attract additional customers, then the cafe will need quite a substantial area within the shop, and not a ‘relatively little space’. Does he want the main business of the shop to change from selling books to selling coffee? In of his recommendation to discontinue the children’s book section, the business manager cites the last national census which indicated a ‘significant decline in the percent of the population who are under age ten’. Two questions arise here: If the census had also shown an increasing trend in population growth, then, even with a ‘lesser percentage’ of the total population, the ‘absolute number’ of children is likely to increase, and the demand for children’s books will not decline. Secondly, is the national trend applicable to the population in the town in which Monarch Books is located? It is quite likely that, because of economic, ethnic or other reasons, the overall national pattern is not reflected in the local population, and the percentage of children among the population is on the increase in this particular city. Even if we agree with the business manager’s view in this regard, the discontinuation of the children’s section will result in some reduction in its customer base, and they may be lost to the rival book shop which may continue to offer children’s books. Customers who switch over to the rival for purchase of children’s books may also decide to buy books on other subjects there. Will this loss be compensated by the additional customers who, according to the business manager, are likely to be attracted by the availability of coffee here? Thus, the business manager’s recommendation abounds in a number of lacunae, and should not be readily acted upon by the management. 45. Arctic deer’s migration patterns We learn from the first part of the editorial that Arctic deer live on plants growing on islands which are warm enough to sustain them. During winter, after these plants are foraged fully, they migrate to a nearby island where the plants are still alive, walking over the ice between them. The author then gives the factual information that, according to local hunters, Arctic deer populations are declining. He concludes that, since these reports coincide with recent warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, the decline in the deer population must be because they are no longer able to move from one island to another. The first flaw in his reasoning is that he believes that since phenomenon A is contemporaneous with phenomenon B, the former must have caused the latter. He does not consider the possibility that these two are independent of each other, and that there might be other causes for the latter. For example, the decline in the deer population might well be due to overhunting or due to some new disease having affected them. The author does not consider these possibilities or rule them out with valid reasons. There is an inherent contradiction in his reasoning. If the global warming has


37

resulted in the melting of the ice between islands, it must have equally enabled these islands to become warm enough to grow more plants. In such a case, there would no longer be any need for the deer to migrate from island to island. If so, the melting of ice would not have made any difference to their population size! It is also likely that the statement of the local hunters itself is wrong. They are probably looking for the deer in those relatively warmer islands to which they used to migrate before the global warming trends started. If there has been no longer any need for the deer to migrate to these islands because their original habitats themselves have become warm enough to sustain the plants on which they forage, the hunters’ conclusion that their population has decreased would be wrong. The author’s explanation of such decline would then be equally wrong. For the above reasons, I am not convinced by the conclusion in the editorial. 46. Labrador’s black bears The author says that the only report of a grizzly bear ever having been sighted in Labrador is that of a lone explorer of the nineteenth century who ‘had startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods of that province’. Since black bears and grizzly bears are similar in colour and the latter is only much larger, this explorer probably mistook, in the darkness of the deep wood, a fully-grown black bear to be a young grizzly bear. Note that there is no mention in his report of the probable age of the bear that he had encountered. The author then gives the information that ‘modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador’. He than says that, because the language and legends of Innu, a native tribe of Labrador, refer to two different types of bears with two different characteristics, grizzly bears had probably lived in Labrador once. I would take this conclusion with a pinch of salt. The conclusion of scientists (apparently zoologists) on the basis of overwhelming evidence directly relevant to the question cannot be pooh-poohed on the basis of mere linguistic evidence which is only marginally germane to the question. In fact, every language has words for demons and ghosts, and the legends of every society refer to them. But does it mean that ghosts and demons do exist and have been seen by the people? My own language has words for names of animals and birds which do not live in our surroundings and have never lived in them. Am I to believe merely on the basis of this fact that these animals and birds had once been denizens of our area? Note that, even while referring to the linguistic evidence, the author does not assert that the characteristics attributed in the legends of the Innu to the two types of bears correspond to those of the present-day black bears and grizzly bears respectively. There are now three possibilities: (i) the legendary characteristics do not correspond to those of either the black bear or the grizzly bear, in which case the legends are mere chimera; (ii) one set of characteristics correspond to those of the black bear while the other does not correspond to those of the grizzly bear, in which case the latter animal was a totally different type of bear which has become extinct now; or (iii) the two sets of characteristics correspond to those of the black bear and the grizzly bear respectively, in which case there could be some basis for the author’s view. It is by ruling out the first two contingencies with convincing reasons that the author can persuade me to agree with him. But, as it stands, the evidence quoted by the author cannot lead me to agree with his speculation that grizzly bears had once lived in Labrador. 47. Scientists and historical weather patterns The author first says that the cooling of the earth in the mid-sixth century could have been due to either a large meteoric collision or a huge volcanic eruption, either of which could have caused a large dust cloud which blocked enough sunlight. He says that few historical records of that time survive now. He then says that a large meteorite collision would probably create a sudden bright flash of light which none of the existing historical records of the time


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mention. He adds that some surviving Asian historical records of that time refer to a loud boom which is consistent with volcanic eruption. On this evidence, he speculates that the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption and not by meteoric collision. The first flaw in the author’s argument is that he considers only two possibilities - meteoric collision and volcanic eruption - as the cause of the cooling of the earth. Another possibility one can think of is some significant change in solar activity, but the author does not consider it. Secondly, he himself says that a meteorite collision would ‘probably’ cause a sudden bright flash of light. Since he is himself not certain about this result, discarding the theory of meteoric collision just because there is no record of the sighting of a bright flash of light is not logical. Probably this was recorded by western observers but those records have been lost. A meteoric collision is certainly capable of producing a loud boom, and if it had occurred without a flash of light (a possibility not ruled out by the author), the available Asian records would still the meteoric collision theory. Even assuming that a meteoric collision would necessarily cause a bright flash of light, it is likely that the collision took place in the western hemisphere, and the bright flash of light was not visible in Asia. This could for the fact that the available Asian records do not mention it. Since sound travels in waves, the boom could have been heard while the light itself was not seen. So, the author has not provided sound reasons for ruling out the possibility of a meteoric collision as the cause for the cooling of the earth in the mid-sixth century. 48. Corpora citizens’ physical fitness Two views are mentioned in this article. One is that of the national advisory board on physical fitness, and the other is that of the author of the article. The board must clarify whether the standards for adequate physical fitness defined twenty years ago continue to be valid even now. If the present standards are more stringent, then a one-to-one comparison between the percentages is not logical. Secondly, the age composition of the population also plays a role in the average physical fitness. If the present-day population has a significantly higher percentage of citizens older than 65 than twenty years ago, then also the average physical fitness level would have come down, whether or not computers had become popular. So, the assumption of the board that average physical fitness has declined is itself open to question. Even assuming that the level of physical fitness has indeed come down in twenty years, the board has not discussed other possible reasons and ruled them out before holding computers to be the main culprit. The author contradicts the board’s theory by pointing out that, in the regions where the levels of computer ownership are the highest, the fitness levels are also the highest. He does not consider the possibility that owners of computers usually belong to the more affluent sections of the population and, because of better nutrition, their fitness levels are likely to be high. Moreover, most of the present s of computers belong to the new generation and are relatively young. So, the average age of the population in a region where the levels of computer ownerships are the highest is likely to be less than in other areas. This could also be another reason for their above-average physical fitness. Probably their fitness levels would have been still higher if they were not spending too much time with their computers. So, the author’s contradiction of the board’s view does not have too much force either. From the fact that there has been a reduction in the sale of fitness-related equipment and services this year, the author concludes that there has been a recent decline in the economy of the country and that this has caused the reduction in the levels of physical fitness. The first flaw in this argument is that a twenty-year trend is sought to be explained away by a temporary one-year-old phenomenon.


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Secondly, considering the sale of fitness-related equipment and services as an accurate indicator of the vibrancy of a national economy is open to question. The author must have considered and ruled out any other reason which could have caused a decline in the sale of fitness equipment. As they stand, neither the view of the board nor the view of the author of this article seems to have much logical force. 49. Acne and other skin diseases Two reasons are given by the writer of the letter for his assertion that ‘health experts should no longer recommend that people should avoid eating greasy foods’. The first is that, during the same decade while health experts have been giving this advice to teenagers to avoid eating greasy foods in order to prevent acne and related skin conditions, the number of teenagers who sought medical help for treatment of these skin diseases has actually risen. The first flaw in this argument is the unwarranted presumption that teenagers had followed the advice of the health experts and had indeed avoided eating greasy foods. If they had not followed the advice and had continued to consume the same amounts or more of greasy foods, the increase in the number of reported acne cases would strengthen, and not weaken, the advice of the experts. The writer has not considered the possibility that, because acne was so common among teenagers in the past, it was not considered to be a medical problem, and that very few of them consequently used to seek medical treatment for it. Now, because it has become comparatively rare because of the adherence to the advice of medical experts, those who have developed acne and related skin conditions (either because of not having followed the advice or due to genetic or other reasons) are seeking medical treatment. If this would explain the greater number of teenagers seeking medical treatment for acne than a decade ago, the expert’s advice would in fact be strengthened and not weakened. The second reason cited by the writer is that, in a recent study, teenagers who avoided greasy foods for a month reported approximately as many outbreaks of acne and related skin conditions as did those who ate an average of two servings of greasy food per day. The more logical inference one can draw from this experiment is that susceptibility to acne does not vanish as soon as one starts avoiding greasy food, but one should be consistent in such practice and avoid consuming greasy food over a period of time. The conclusion of the writer would have been more convincing if the experiment had lasted for over six months to a year and the result was the same. Even if one agrees with the author that there is no causal connection between the consumption of greasy food by teenagers and their developing acne and other skin diseases as a consequence, the logical conclusion can only be that experts need no longer scare teenagers with warnings against the consumption of such food. Why does he generalize this and assert that experts should no longer recommend that ‘people’ avoid such foods. If the consumption of greasy food by adults, and particularly by those beyond the age of 55, is likely to lead to other health problems such as the thickening of the arteries, or blood pressure, or colon cancer etc, the experts would be well within their right (and duty) to issue such warnings. For the above reasons, I would not give up avoiding greasy food if I were a teenager and did not want my face to be disfigured by acne. 50. Earth and the origin of its oceans In this article, the author concludes that the water in earth’s oceans must have originated from comets which had collided with it. I find his conclusion unconvincing for many reasons. The author himself concedes the possibility of there having been water vapor even during the formation of the earth, arising out of the collision of space rocks. He says that some water vapor might have escaped into space in the earliest stages while the earth had not developed sufficient gravitational force; but, in a later period, when the earth grew into its present size and developed greater gravitation, the gases and water vapor continued to be retained in its atmosphere.


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He then advances the argument that the water in earth’s oceans ‘must’ have originated from comets striking it at a later stage of its development because comets are largely ice made up of frozen water and gases. There are two problems with this argument. First of all, if the gravitational energy even in the formative stages of the earth was strong enough for even the surface to get molten, why did the water vapour that was present not also stick to the earth but flew off into space? A gravitational force that was strong enough to retain metals must have been strong enough to retain the much lighter water vapour also. First, if the water vapor resulting from the collision of a comet could fall as rain on the earth’s surface, why does he rule out the possibility of water vapor trapped earlier also behaving in the same manner and contributing to the water content in the oceans? Secondly, the author has not quantified the amount of water vapor that a single comet collision can give rise to. How many comets must have collided with the earth in order to for all the water that is contained in the oceans of the earth? Is there any other corroborative evidence for that many number of collisions? Another shortcoming in the author’s theory is that it does not for the salt content in earth’s oceans. These points must be clarified before the author’s views can be allowed to form part of a school textbook.

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