Sentiment Report Cycle 32j1r
This document was ed by and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this report form. Report 2z6p3t
Overview 5o1f4z
& View Sentiment Report Cycle as PDF for free.
More details 6z3438
- Words: 343
- Pages: 1
RESEARCH Typical Sentiment Cycle
Maximum Optimism
Last Gasp 1
Test BeliefBuilding Phase Lower Low
(3%-5% decline) BeliefBuilding Phase
Fear-Building Phase
(More than 5% decline) We are here * Explosive Rally 3
Maximum Pessimism
BULL PHASE
BULL MARKET CORRECTION
BEAR PHASE
Test 2
BEAR MARKET CORRECTION
BULL PHASE
* The Typical Sentiment Cycle is a real bull-to-bear phase from the S&P 500 in 1966. It displayed the classic price phases that many cycles exhibit. The WE ARE HERE box is a partially subjective judgment based on sentiment conditions, price behavior and fundamental ratios. It should proceed forward the majority of the time, but may skip backward as new information becomes known. This is only a rough approximation. The case against using something like this is that every cycle is different. No two markets ever look exactly the same, or exactly like this. Sometimes, like the mid-1990s, the middle phase just keeps going and going and going. More typically, stocks spend 1-3 months in each phase, though there is wide variation in that, from weeks to years. Note that "maximum optimism" and "maximum pessimism" normally occur before a market peak and market trough, respectively. It's rare for bull phases to end when optimism is at its highest point. The same goes for bear phases, but that is less consistent - sometimes a bear will end in panic and both price and sentiment will bottom at the same time.
1 What to watch for: Divergences with breadth figures; "This time is different" articles; arrogance from bullish commentators; proliferation of new types of funds; closing of long-time funds that are not fully invested. 2 What to watch for: Divergences with breadth figures, doomsday prophesies on mainstream media, stocking up of staples among consumers, heavy trading activity, ridicule of "knife catching" buyers. 3 Watch to watch for: Explosive price gains over 2-3 day periods; massive thrusts in market breadth; "Just another bear market rally" articles; minimal pullbacks after short-term overbought readings
Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research
RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT
10/08/15, Page 7 of 16
Maximum Optimism
Last Gasp 1
Test BeliefBuilding Phase Lower Low
(3%-5% decline) BeliefBuilding Phase
Fear-Building Phase
(More than 5% decline) We are here * Explosive Rally 3
Maximum Pessimism
BULL PHASE
BULL MARKET CORRECTION
BEAR PHASE
Test 2
BEAR MARKET CORRECTION
BULL PHASE
* The Typical Sentiment Cycle is a real bull-to-bear phase from the S&P 500 in 1966. It displayed the classic price phases that many cycles exhibit. The WE ARE HERE box is a partially subjective judgment based on sentiment conditions, price behavior and fundamental ratios. It should proceed forward the majority of the time, but may skip backward as new information becomes known. This is only a rough approximation. The case against using something like this is that every cycle is different. No two markets ever look exactly the same, or exactly like this. Sometimes, like the mid-1990s, the middle phase just keeps going and going and going. More typically, stocks spend 1-3 months in each phase, though there is wide variation in that, from weeks to years. Note that "maximum optimism" and "maximum pessimism" normally occur before a market peak and market trough, respectively. It's rare for bull phases to end when optimism is at its highest point. The same goes for bear phases, but that is less consistent - sometimes a bear will end in panic and both price and sentiment will bottom at the same time.
1 What to watch for: Divergences with breadth figures; "This time is different" articles; arrogance from bullish commentators; proliferation of new types of funds; closing of long-time funds that are not fully invested. 2 What to watch for: Divergences with breadth figures, doomsday prophesies on mainstream media, stocking up of staples among consumers, heavy trading activity, ridicule of "knife catching" buyers. 3 Watch to watch for: Explosive price gains over 2-3 day periods; massive thrusts in market breadth; "Just another bear market rally" articles; minimal pullbacks after short-term overbought readings
Copyright © 2015 Sundial Capital Research
RE-DISTRIBUTION NOT ALLOWED WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT
10/08/15, Page 7 of 16
Related Documents c2h70
Sentiment Report Cycle 32j1r
August 2020 0
Sentiment Indicators.pdf 71196t
May 2020 8
Ethical Cycle Report 68151b
April 2022 0
Vapor Compression Cycle Lab Report 3i21d
November 2021 0
Sentiment Au Coeur 5t532x
September 2021 0