Missile Crisis Negotiation Case 6p91n
This document was ed by and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this report form. Report 2z6p3t
Overview 5o1f4z
& View Missile Crisis Negotiation Case as PDF for free.
More details 6z3438
- Words: 8,744
- Pages: 31
Chair of Entrepreneurship Seminar Paper
Negotiation Analysis of Cuban Missile Crisis Negotiation Analysis Seminar Supervised by Prof. Dr. Matthias Raith & M. Sc. Charlott Menke
Summer Term 2017
Authors:
Ayça Sabah
217221
[email protected]
Özgür Erol
217021
[email protected]
Date of submission: 07/08/2017
i
Table of Contents
List of abbreviations
iii
Abstract
iv
1. Introduction
1
3. Negotiation Parties
3
3.1 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
3
3.2 United States of America
5
3.3 Republic of Cuba
6
4. Background of Negotiations: Relations between parties
8
4.1 U.S. - Soviet Union Relations
8
4.2 U.S. - Cuba Relations
9
4.3 Soviet Union - Cuba Relations
10
6. Issue Evaluations of Parties
13
6.1. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
13
6.2. United States of America
15
6.3. Republic of Cuba
17
7. Negotiation Analysis with BATNA Method
18
8. Discussion and Conclusion
20
References
v
ii
List of abbreviations BATNA Best Alternative to the Negotiated Agreement DANSS Decision and Negotiation System EX-COMM The Executive Committee of the National Security Council NASA National Aeronautics and Space istration NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization U.S. United States of America
iii
Abstract In October 1962, world was in the edge of a nuclear war due to the reconnaissance of Soviet nuclear missiles placement in Cuba by an American U-2 spy plane. The competition between Soviet Union and United States of America was in the hottest period on the nuclear arms race. Soviet Union claimed that the missile placement is for the defense of Cuba and the Soviet territories in case of possible attack. However, United States refused to accept this argument and declared the missiles as offensive weapons, contrary to the warnings given to Soviet Union earlier. Menacing toned negotiations has been held between parties by the representatives John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. This seminar paper gives an overview of the negotiation analysis between parties, aiming to review the efficiency of the result of the negotiation. At the beginning, negotiation parties and the background of relations has been given. An evaluation matrix has been drawn up that focuses on the conflicts and the interest of parties. Subsequently, the analysis was carried out by weighting the respective focus areas. Through the evaluation matrix and the application of the negotiation methodology "Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement” (BATNA), results have been placed on the efficiency plane by using the Decision and Negotiation System (DANSS) software. Results showed that both parties have a high level of satisfaction through the issues accepted. Finally, possible reasons for not achieving the efficiency frontier has been given.
iv
1. Introduction After the World War II, Soviet Union has become the principal adversary of the United States (hereafter referred to as U.S.) with an intense competition on power. Both parties were showing off their strengths at the earliest opportunity through developments in production, technology or science. In 1962, this struggle on power was about to cause a nuclear war. Soviet Union’s plan was secretly placing the nuclear missiles in Republic of Cuba (hereafter referred to as Cuba) for defense purposes against U.S. or to keep as a display of power in the future. It has been known that Soviets was ing Cuba with armaments to use in defense of the island before the crisis. In 1962, Soviet Union came up with an offer to place the missiles on the island to defend Castro’s regime when there is a need. (Fursenko A./Naftali T., 2006) This was an offer that can not be rejected by Castro since after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, U.S. might carry out a second attack.
After the events become evident, U.S. felt threatened and immediately started to debate on possible actions against the Soviets. During the EX-COMM (The Executive Committee of the National Security Council) meetings, John F. Kennedy was under the pressure of his advisors suggestions in favor of a military attack or invasion where the Soviets were ready to use the nuclear missiles in defense of Cuba.
The representatives of each party were encumbered with a major responsibility of the lives of millions living in both continents. Although threat was a part of almost all of the dialogs, both parties aimed to avoid from an active nuclear contest. In further sections, it will be revealed the effect of the background of the negotiations by presenting the history and relations between parties.
1
2. Timeline October 14 - U.S. reconnaissance planes fly over Cuba October 15 - Evidence of the site preparation and Soviet nuclear missile placement has been photographed October 16 - EX-COMM meetings begin: Kennedy’s advisors debate over the possible actions October 17 - U.S. Military starts to head south to be prepared for a possible attack October 18 - Yet unrevealing the crisis; Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko states that any Soviet aid is purely defensive after being reminded by Kennedy that the offensive weapon supply to Cuba would not be acceptable October 20 - During EX-COMM meetings, potential actions of U.S. are determined as: quarantine on the delivery of the armaments, attack on missile sites and invasion October 21 - No guarantee can be given by U.S. air forces on the 100% destruction of the missiles during in a possible attack against Cuba October 22 - Kennedy’s writes his first letter to Khrushchev and publicly announces the quarantine. States that at all cost, U.S. is determined to remove the threat October 23 - U.S. naval fleet place around the island of Cuba, Soviet submarines threaten the quarantine October 24 - Khrushchev replies Kennedy stating that the threat on Soviets and Cuba is unacceptable and missiles are only for defensive purposes October 25 - Soviets accused with false assurance during the United Nations meeting, some Soviet freighters turn back before facing the quarantine October 26 - John Scali, ABC News reporter is approached by Aleksandr Fomin, Soviet embassy staff, in return of removal of missiles; non-invasion of Cuba should be guaranteed in addition to the removal of quarantine. Right after Khrushchev writes in his letter the same demands October 27 - A second letter from Khrushchev, demanding the U.S. missile displacement in Turkey, Robert Kennedy unofficially meets Soviet representatives to accept deal in silent October 28 - Radio Moscow announces the removal of missiles in exchange for removing the quarantine and a guarantee that the U.S. will never invade Cuba
2
3. Negotiation Parties 3.1 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the Soviet Union or Soviets, had its origins in 1917 with the October Revolution leaded by Vladimir Lenin as successor to the Russian Empire of tsar. The revolution started with the riots in major cities during the World War I when Russian Army was not strong enough to dominate over. (CIA World Fact Book, 2017) After civil war era, in 1921 Lenin’s ers succeeded eliminating opponents first in Russia and following in Transcaucasia (divided in 1936 into Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia), Belarus and Ukraine. In 1922 Soviet Union has been established first with this four Soviet Republics and until 1940 in chronological order Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Estonia, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania followed the constitution. Until the end of it’s existence in year 1991, Soviet Union was constituted with farther autonomous republics, provinces and districts in addition keeping the hegemony on the satellite socialist republics. (Britannica, 2017)
Soviet revolution aimed to adapt the Marxist ideology based on democratic and social control of lands and means of production by the proletariat. Lenin addressed the economic substance of socialism through providing high living standards to socialist countries better than capitalists and the necessity of an international socialist revolution to sustain the Soviet regime. After Lenin’s death in 1924, Joseph Stalin became the leader of Soviet Union and adapted a nationally limited socialism in practice. (Warde W. F., 1961) Soviet Union developed heavily in industry in this era. In Stalin's regime, the opposition was silenced and dominated with cultural purges, given supreme punishments or life imprisonment throughout the army and government. Leon Trotsky as a strong opponent, a revolutionist alongside with Lenin has been exiled during this period and later found murdered. (Biography, 2017)
During the World War II, invaded the Soviet Union in spite of the Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact signed between Hitler and Stalin in year 1939. With the counterattack of Soviets, Berlin captured in May 1945 by Soviet Union, leading the victory against and starting competition with the United States about the interest on Berlin. After the World War II Soviet Union increased the influence in Eastern Europe with satellite socialist republics in Poland, Czechoslovakia, East , Bulgaria and Romania. (Britannica, 2017) The victory of the war lead the Soviet Union to emerge as a global power and the principal adversary of the United States. (CIA World Fact Book, 2017)
3
During the Cold War era (1947-1991) Soviet Union and United States were in an endless competition in of production, technology and science. In the year 1945 United States had its first atomic explosion aiming to shorten the war era and gaining the sole possession eliminating Soviets. Four year later in 1949 Soviet Union exploded its first atomic bomb. This ended the U.S. owned victory in nuclear armaments field and launched the Cold War.
In 1953 after Stalin’s death Georgi Malenkov became prime minister. This year he announced that Soviet Union has its first hydrogen bomb (which has greater destructive power than the atomic bomb), only one year after United States has tested its own hydrogen bomb. (Atomcentral, 2017) In 1955 Nikolay Bulganin, an ally of the following premier Nikita Khrushchev became prime minister. As Soviets focused on the rocket science as their crucial military assets, the developments lead a success both in army and also in the space race by launching the first artificial earth satellite, Sputnik, to the space through a intercontinental ballistic missile in 1957. This success had a big impact on United States and started the space race by the constitution of NASA. (NASA, 2017)
In 1958 Khrushchev replaced Bulganin defeating a coup attempt led by Malenkov and became prime minister. Khrushchev was the son of a coal miner family. He was active in politics by ing socialist movement after revolution and became Communist Party member in year 1929. He had a key role in the victory of Stalingrad as political commissar and was in the inner circle of Stalin during his politic life before his death. Despite that Khrushchev’s leadership consisted the heavy criticism on Stalin, he reaffirmed and formalized Stalin’s doctrines that dissent Lenin’s socialist principals and class struggle. (Warde W. F., 1961)
According to his son Sergei Khrushchev states in an interview record, he was a calculated person. He had the image of being very emotional and he liked to use this to threaten the people. He is known by once taking his shoe off to brandish at the United Nations meeting. He is also known by his words “We will show you Kuzka's mother!” to President Nixon in year 1959. This can be interpreted as “We'll show you who's boss!” (Fram M., 2015)
Khrushchev attended meetings with Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy, and unlike Stalin in 1959, during his tour of the United States, he announced his desire of easing the relations between the West and the Soviet Union. In the meantime, Khrushchev also showed his commitment to the socialism to the Soviet conservatives. In 1960 a U-2 reconnaissance aircraft had been detected and 4
shot down in Soviet territory by Soviet air defense troops. After this Khrushchev cancelled a summit meeting with President Eisenhower to demonstrate national prestige. Khrushchev demanded the western sectors in Berlin to be incorporated with East . When this rejected and with the increasing number of migration to the West from East, he approved the construction of Berlin wall in 1961. (The Office, 2017) In the same year Soviet astronaut Yuri Gagarin headed the moon and became the first human in space. In 1962 Cuban missile crisis erupted with the reconnaissance of the Soviet missiles placement works in Cuba, 90 miles away from the U.S border.
3.2 United States of America United States of America declared independence in 1776 and recognized in 1783. Between 1775 and 1783, thirteen colonies won the War of Independence and became independent from Great Britain. George Washington was the first president of U.S. and he served between 1789 and 1797. (www.usa.gov, 2017)
U.S. involved in many wars including Vietnam War, Korean War, World War I, and World War II. Moreover, Soviet Union and U.S. was on the same side during World War II. After World War II, cold war between U.S. and Soviet Union began and lasted until 1991. (www.usa.gov, 2017) During Cuban Missile Crisis, U.S. side was led by President of U.S. Government John Fitzgerald Kennedy, commonly known as JFK.
He was born in United States in 1917, in Massachusetts. Afterwards, he went to Harvard University and graduated in 1940. Soon after his graduation, he ed the navy, with his older brother and assigned to a patrol torpedo boat at South Pacific as the Commander with Lieutenant grade. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)
During the World War II, his boat was destroyed but he managed to survive with most of his crew. After he came back from his Navy assignment, he was awarded a medal by U.S. Army. But during World War II, his older brother died in a mission when his plane blew up. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017) His father was a diplomat and served as U.S. Ambassador to England. His father’s job made him interested in politics. Moreover, because of the loss of his older brother in war affected him to change his decisions about his future, and he decided to start a political career. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)
5
He was elected to Congress in Massachusetts in 1946, and to U.S. Senate in 1952. In November 1960, as the candidate of Democratic Party, he won the elections and became the youngest president of U.S. at the age of 43. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017) JFK was the 35th President of United States, and served between 1961 and 1963, until he was tragically assassinated in November 1963.
He was the president when the unsuccessful attempt to invade Cuba was undertaken in 1961, also known as Bay of Pigs Invasion. Although this attempt was mostly planned by previous president Eisenhower, this failure against Fidel Castro was perceived as lack of leadership ability of JFK and inadequacy of his team. (History, 2017)
Another failure of him was in Vienna Summit, against President of Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev, who is also the leader of Soviet Union side in Cuban Missile Crisis. In Vienna Summit negotiations, JFK was bludgeoned by Khrushchev and afterwards Berlin Wall was constructed. (Independent, 2011)
Therefore, Cuban Missile Crisis was considerably sensitive and crucial for him to prove his leadership. His priority was to avoid nuclear war in Cuban Missile Crisis. Correspondingly, he also resisted to use military attack option to remove missiles in Cuba and tried to implement diplomatic ways instead. In later analysis about Cuban Missile Crisis, cautious attitude of JFK was stated as the main reason that the world escaped nuclear war. (Roches, 2015)
3.3 Republic of Cuba After the Cuban War of Independence from Spain ended in 1898, Cuba was ceded to the United States. Although being independent, United States had the right to intervene to the Cuban internal affairs due to the Platt Amendment. In 1906 United States occupied Cuba due to a rebellion act and Jose Miguel Gomez became the president after the resignation of current president Tomas Estrada Palma. During his regime, racism against Afro-Cubans raised and United States sent the troops back in Cuba to bear against the conflicts. In 1925 Gerado Machado became president and he developed the country in of mining industry, agriculture and public works. Later that year first Socialist Party founded in Cuba. (BBC, 2015)
6
Cuban economy was heavily dependent on sugar export. By 1928 sugar prices decreased and with the additional effect of 1929 Wall Street stock market crisis, economy went down. This lead a reaction from opposition that later turned into a civil war. In early 1933 Sumner Welles, the ambassador of United States visited Cuba demanding the cancelled constitutional guaranties back during Machado’s regime. After noncooperative position of Machado, Welles encouraged disaffection among politicians and army officers and this led the end of Machado’s regime with the coup, led by Sergeant Fulgencio Batista. (Dur P./Gilcrease C., 2002)
With the backing of Sumner Welles, Batista had a strong influence over numerous presidents until 1940. (Guzman T. A., 2015) In this period United States removed its rights to intervene in Cuba's internal affairs. Additionally, increased the quotas to import Cuban sugar with the raise of prices paid for sugar import in Cuban’s favor. Finally, Batista elected to the presidency for four years in 1940. During his presidency, he favored United States businesses and had the personal benefits. After end of the presidential period in 1944 he lived in Florida United States during his retirement with the 20 million dollars savings. During this term, he kept the influence on Cuban politics and president. Finally returned to Cuba for an election in 1952. (Butts E./Schwartz J.R., 2005)
Batista’s position during the elections stayed behind the other candidates, this led the cancellation of elections and a military coup planned by Batista to replace current president. Soon United States recognized the new Cuban government. During his regime Batista restrained the Cuban’s civil liberties and acted in favor of wealthy sugar plantations landowners. Although during 1950’s Cuban economy was already in steady decline period; during Batista’s regime the gap between rich and poor, corruption trends in government increased. The mafia from United States raised the control over drugs, gambling and prostitution in the island and corporations based on United States was favoring the government. (Guzman T. A., 2015)
Fidel Castro attempted an unsuccessful revolt against the Batista regime in 1953 and got arrested. After his release through a political amnesty, in 1956 he waged a guerrilla war deployed in Sierra Mountains with Ernesto Che Guevara. This spread across Cuba with the help of revolution volunteers. In year 1958 United States withdrew the military to regime and with a guerrilla army of 9000 leaded by Castro, in 1959 Batista was overthrown with a civil rebellion turned into Cuban Revolution. (BBC, 2015)
7
Fidel Castro was born in 1926 as a child of a wealthy sugar plantation owner. At the age of 14 “My good friend Roosevelt…” Castro wrote to the Franklin Roosevelt in his letter. He congratulated his presidency and demand a 10-dollar bill since he had never saw one. In postscript, he also noted his offer to show the biggest Cuban iron mines for possible use in ship construction. (Butts E./Schwartz J.R., 2005) In year 1945 he entered to the School of Law at the University of Havana and had a political focus on anti-imperialism and socialism.
Although Castro was strongly linked to the communists of the Popular Socialist Party, Cuba’s first provisional government was chosen from non-communists. Castro was a Marxist through economic and social policies. He assigned the lands to peasants, opened thousands of schools, provided free education and health care system. He also positioned a strict control on opposition by media and forced exiles of opponents. (Burns et al., 2004) The properties on the island belong to other nations namely Spain, , United Kingdom, Switzerland and United States expropriated subject to compensation for public good with an agrarian reform. All nations but United States agreed on compensation. (Lamrani S., 2013) After this nationalization process the relations with United States got worse and underpin a commercial embargo in 1961.
4. Background of Negotiations: Relations between parties 4.1 U.S. - Soviet Union Relations Relations between Unites States and Soviet Union includes many conflicts, even though these two sides were together during the World War II against Adolf Hitler. They cooperated to defeat Hitler’s Army and to end the war. But after the end of World War II, relations had been strained for a long time. From 1947, problematic affairs had retained until 1991, the time Soviet Union collapsed. Because these sides were superpowers of the world for that period, this chaotic atmosphere involved many other countries which were ed by either U.S. or Soviet Union. Rivalry between communism and capitalism were mostly called ‘Cold War’. (Library of Congress, 2017) Berlin Ultimatum In 1958 Soviet Union Leader Khrushchev gave an ultimatum to US, Great Britain and to withdraw their military forces from Berlin. This ultimatum was rejected by NATO and Khrushchev’s attempt was unsuccessful. (Office of the Historian - USA Department of State, 2017)
8
Berlin Crisis Many people from East were crossing to West by Berlin every day. These immigrations accumulated very quickly and reached up to 20% of East German population. Moreover, people who had immigrated were mostly educated and qualified. (Britannica, 2017) Therefore, Soviet Union wanted to stop immigrations making East German people incapable of crossing to the West without permission. Khrushchev demanded an agreement, and it was discussed in Vienna Summit but ended up without any agreement. Afterwards, in August 1961, Berlin Wall was built. (Britannica, 2017)
Tank Stand-off in Berlin In October 1961, a U.S. diplomat went to East Berlin. He was stopped by East German border guards and asked to show his port, and after he denied it saying that only Soviet officials could ask, he was sent back by border guards. (The Guardian, 2011) A U.S. Commander ordered military forces to escort the next time a U.S. diplomat visit East Berlin. But East border guards kept asking for port check. Correspondingly, U.S. tanks were sent to East Berlin border and stood 75 meters away as a threat. Soviet tanks were immediately sent to same location as well, and tanks stood facing each other for 16 hours. After communication between Kremlin and Washington, they agreed that there is no point to risk a conflict and tanks were pulled back one by one. (The Guardian, 2011)
4.2 U.S. - Cuba Relations By the year 1959 oil production, communication, mining and energy sectors were dominated, trade was relied upon United States as 65% of its imports and 74% of its exports. (Paterson T.G., 1989) United States owned investments did not have significant contributions to country itself since they were often derated on taxes and freed to repatriate their profits. (Lamrani S., 2013)
During anti Batista movement, United States ed Batista in military missions by providing armaments, infiltrating ive political groups and organizing an anticommunist police unit. (Paterson T.G., 1989) After Batista’s overthrown in 1958, he left the country with 424 million dollars bankruptcy. Cuba asked for a loan from United States to stabilize its currency. However, this request had been rejected. (Lamrani S., 2013) Despite the progress on housing, education, health care systems and decreased corruption, his revolution was disparaged and named as "betrayed revolution” by United States. (Paterson T.G., 1989) On August 1959 United States based electricity company cancelled its 15 million dollars worth investment on Cuba which was 9
planned to upgrade Cuban electrical grid. This was right after Cuba’s new government reduced the electricity price by thirty percent. Through the expropriation of the foreign assets in Cuba, compensations provided to the owners. Only United States rejected the compensation process. Thus in 1960 Cuban sugar quota has been cancelled and energy source delivery has been stopped. One year later in 1961 travel ban was imposed. This embargo later turned in to a total embargo including banning the drugs and food supplies. (Lamrani S., 2013)
Castro was planned to be murdered by several attempts-by United States but never succeed. In 1961 with the military of United States, Cuban exiles attempt an invasion at the Bay of Pigs. However, this attempt has been failed. Within this year Castro declared Cuba as a communist state and built strong the relations with the Soviet Union both politically and economically. Following that United States suspended Cuba from Organization of American States established for regional solidarity and cooperation among its member states, due to it’s adherence to MarxismLeninism. (BBC, 2015)
On October 14, 1962 an U-2 reconnaissance plane photographed the construction of missile sites in Cuba to place Soviet nuclear missiles. Kennedy was frustrated after this evidence snapping "He can't do that to me!…”. United States declared the missiles as offensive weapons, a great nuclear threat on its territories. (Paterson T.G., 1989)
4.3 Soviet Union - Cuba Relations Besides interactions during World War II, Soviet Union and Cuba did not have a significant diplomatic relation until Cuban Revolution. (Fagen, 1978) Batista’s Government was defeated by revolutionist rebels who are under the command of Fidel Castro and Che Guevara in 1959. This defeat led to Cuban Revolution and Fidel Castro’s became the President transforming the regime into communism. Afterwards, U.S. broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba when all U.S. businesses in Cuba was nationalized. (Fagen, 1978)
After the revolution, Soviet Union did not know about Fidel Castro. But by the time U.S. started an embargo on Cuba, government had to search for new markets to sustain the economy of the country. (Peterson, 1994)
10
New market search of Cuba let a trade start between two sides, and this help Cuba avoid economic crisis for many years.
When an official announcement by Fidel Castro stated that Cuba is a socialist republic, as the socialist superpower of the world, Soviet Union congratulated Cuba and diplomatic relations became closer. The U.S. threat on Cuba was obvious. To that end, defense of Cuba was interpreted as prestige matter for Soviet Union. (Richard E. Welch, 1985)
Fidel Castro let Soviet Union to install nuclear missiles in Cuba, and after spy aircrafts of U.S. realized the missile sites, the Cuban Missile Crisis was triggered. As the result of negotiation, defense of Cuba against U.S. was guaranteed. (Gonzalez, 2002)
After Cuban Missile Crisis, relations between Soviet Union and Cuba became even better. In 1963, Fidel Castro made a trip to Soviet Union to talk about construction projects in Cuba. In 1968, he politically ed the invasion of Czechoslovakia. And relations retained until the dissolution of Soviet Union in 1991. (Roeschley, 2011)
11
5. Evaluation (Pay-off) Matrix Evaluation matrix is being used to demonstrate the issues, options and parties comparative positions during the negotiation. It contains each parties name in the head of the columns, options headed by issues on the left column and numerical evaluation of each option by each party on the body of the table. In following table marked options are determined to calculate BATNA of each party.
1 a b c d
USSR Missiles in Cuba Removal by USSR Removal by Cuba Government Removed after somewhile Retained permenantly
2 USA Missiles in Turkey a Removed b Removed after 6 months c Retained permenantly
USA 55
USSR 20
Republic of Cuba 20
55 40 22 0
10 0 15 20
0 5 15 20
15
15
0
0 5 15
15 10 0
0 0 0
3 a b c d
Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba
10
20
30
No Embargo or Defensive Blockade Only Defensive Blockade Only Embargo Both Embargo and Defensive Blockade
0 4 7 10
20 5 10 0
30 10 20 0
4 a b c d
US Military Attack to Cuba
10
40
50
Never No promise Only for missile setups Attack for missile setups and invasion
0 10 5 7
40 20 10 0
50 30 10 0
5 a b c d e f g
Public Announcement
10
5
0
USSR Missiles and Peace in Cuba USSR Missiles and USA Missile USSR Missiles, USA Missiles, and Peace in Cuba USA Missiles and Peace in Cuba USA Missiles Removal USSR Missiles Removal Peace in Cuba
10 5 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 5 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table I- Evaluation Matrix
12
6. Issue Evaluations of Parties In this section, issues and each parties’ interests will be discussed in detail.
6.1. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 6.1.1 Missiles in Cuba As being the only communist state in the western hemisphere and as past experiences reveal, an invasion threat against the Cuba by United States was undeniable. This would also lead a threat of war against Soviet Union and any of the Soviet Republics as stated by Khrushchev. Beyond being just a strong war power, nuclear missiles are also giving a crucial power both to Soviet and Cuban governments during further negotiations and trades with United States which eventually had been used for quid pro quo removal of missiles in Turkey.
During the crisis resolution meetings Kennedy’s advisers came up with few explanations of Soviet placement of nuclear missiles. According to George Ball, Khrushchev wanted to trade the Cuban disarm in return of United States abandon its interest in Berlin, surrounded by communist East . Another explanation is that the Soviet Union was behind the United States in development of nuclear missiles and wanted to close the gap. This is as well the dominant view in scholarly literature is the nuclear missiles had a mission to strengthen Soviet’s position in the nuclear arms race with United States. (Paterson T.G., 1989) During the crisis, Khrushchev wrote in his letter to Kennedy “We affirm that the armaments which are in Cuba, regardless of the classification to which they may belong, are intended solely for defensive purposes, in order to secure the Republic of Cuba against the attack of an aggressor.”
6.1.2 Missiles in Turkey In year 1961 United States installed fifteen nuclear tipped missiles in right beside the Soviet Union borders, in Turkey, as a member county of NATO. Those missiles gave a strong war-power to United States to use in further direct attacks or to threaten Soviets to refrain spreading communism. Although its being known that United States has more missiles across the Europe, in last minute Khrushchev pointed out the missiles in Turkey and demanded the removal of missiles from Turkey. Later confirmed by his son Sergei Khrushchev this issue was not crucial for Soviet Union at all. This request can be interpreted as using as a quid pro quo and not to lose face in the deal and decreasing the possible threat of attack even it is an underachiever.
13
6.1.3 Quarantine on Cuba Khrushchev stated that the relation between two country related goods and products is only concern these two countries and no third party should be involved. The quarantine represents an ultimatum and clear threat that if the demands of United States unfilled, oppress is inevitable. He claimed United States is violating the international law with the quarantine as a piracy and doing this with the hatred of Cuban people and government. “What morality, what law can justify such an approach by the American Government to international affairs? No such morality or law can be found, because the actions of the United States with regard to Cuba constitute outright banditry or, if you like, the folly of degenerate imperialism.” Khrushchev wrote in his letter to Kennedy dated 26th of October,1962 “…Naturally we will not simply be bystanders with regard to piratical acts by American ships on the high seas. We will then be forced on our part to take the measures we consider necessary and adequate in order to protect our rights. We have everything necessary to do so.” he continued. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)
6.1.4 U.S. Military attack to Cuba Khrushchev was decisive to prevent its ally Cuba from a possible attack by United States at all cost. In his letter to Kennedy he reminded the failed invasion of Bay of Pigs and yet destructive results on Cubans. Despite stating the terrifying results of possible disagreement, he clearly threatened back to attack in case of possible military attack against Cuba. This was the most important issue for the Soviet Union as they committed to the defense of Cuba while agreeing on the missile placement, additionally Cuba was a strong ally and the only communist state in western hemisphere.
Later in this letter he stated if United States stops the threat of any attack or invasion, Cuban government evidently would declare demobilization of the armaments. This statement later leaded a guarantee given by U.S. for Cuba’s peace.
6.1.5 Public Announcement During the unofficial meeting held on 27th October, 1962 between Robert Kennedy and Soviet ambassador Dobrynin, United States demanded the missiles in Turkey will be displaced if only this will not publicly announced due to reason such deployment decision by United States would damage the structure of NATO - since deployment was the decision of the NATO Council- United 14
States claimed that the withdrawal of missiles from Turkey will require few months, taking into the procedures within the NATO framework. This was reasonable enough and not so important for Khrushchev as he publicly announced the next day not a word about the missiles in Turkey, the missiles will be removed from Cuba, in return the quarantine will be ended and a guarantee has been given that Cuba will not be invaded. (National Security Archive, 1995)
6.2. United States of America After U.S. Government realized Soviet missile installation in Cuba, they decided to keep the situation quiet and established a committee with from different governmental organizations including U.S. Army to evaluate the situation. They called it ExComm which stands for Executive Committee of the National Security Council. (Coleman, 2017)
The most important priority for U.S. was of course to avoid nuclear war, since the missile installation created very sensitive circumstance which could easily end as Nuclear War. But this was not a negotiation issue for any sides, because it would have been the result in case there was no agreement. Therefore, evaluation of them depended on the issues covered by negotiation: Soviet Missiles in Cuba, U.S. Missiles in Turkey, Quarantine on Cuba, U.S. Military Attack to Cuba and Public Announcement.
6.2.1. Missiles in Cuba As the incident that creates crisis, the most important issue for U.S. was Soviet missiles in Cuba. Since it was an obvious threat for the country, U.S. wanted those missiles to be removed immediately. They were not willing to accept any result of negotiation which did not include removal of those missiles. Although it would provide much lower satisfaction, they were also willing to accept the removal of Soviet Missiles after some time, such as 6 months later. Furthermore, to compensate this removal, U.S. government brought another issue to the table: U.S. Missiles in Turkey. (Coleman, 2017)
6.2.2. Missiles in Turkey U.S. missiles in Turkey were already installed before Cuban Missile Crisis. By the time U.S. realized the missile installation in Cuba, their missiles in Turkey were already there. Not making any progress about the removal of Soviet Missiles in Cuba, U.S. government created a new issue for negotiation by proposing that they could remove missiles in Turkey. Thus, retaining these missiles were the best option for U.S., but they were also willing remove them. But the important 15
point was that U.S. Government didn’t want to do it at the same time with removal of Soviet Missiles. Because they were considered to be overwhelmed by Soviet Union and Cuba in prior crisis. So, to preserve their political reputation, U.S. proposed to remove the missiles in Turkey after six months, and this was an acceptable option for U.S.. (Allison, 2012)
6.2.3. Quarantine on Cuba U.S. applied an embargo on Cuba before Missile Crisis start. After ExComm decision, they also started to place defensive blockade to prevent anymore military was shipped to Cuba by Soviet Union. Therefore, both embargo and defensive blockade, so-called quarantine, were issues in Cuban Missile Crisis negotiation. Best option for U.S. was retaining both embargo and defensive quarantine. But they were willing to accept to withdraw defensive blockade in case Soviet missiles were removed. This means to keep the situation as it was before Missile Crisis, only with embargo. Furthermore, U.S. preferred keeping only embargo than keeping only defensive blockade, because defensive blockades carried more risk, cost and effort for them. And finally, withdrawing both embargo and defensive blockade was the least satisfying option.
6.2.4. U.S. Military Attack to Cuba The main objective of U.S. when considering the military attack was to defuse Soviet Missiles in Cuba. But this move was likely to bring an inevitable need to invade Cuba afterwards, because keeping everything under control might have been too difficult without invasion. So, military attack and invasion afterwards was a relatively good option for U.S. But Soviet Union created another option and wanted to include the guarantee that US will never make a military attack to Cuba, which became the worst option for U.S. since it would also be valid for any future crisis. Correspondingly, not attacking to Cuba immediately, but providing no guarantee about military attack either was the best option for U.S. in this issue.
6.2.5. Public Announcement U.S. already had defeats in prior crisis with Soviet Union and Cuba such as Berlin Crisis which ended up in Berlin Wall construction and Bay of Pigs Invasion attempt which ended up that Cuba took U.S.-backed exiles and U.S. Soldiers. As a result, U.S. Government had to make this agreement look like a diplomatic victory. To do so, they wanted to exclude removal of U.S. missiles in Turkey and making another agreement for it which was kept as a secret for 25 years. (John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Musem, 2017) But the agreement also had to cover a mutual trade to be reasonable for all sides. A public announcement only covers sacrifices of one 16
side would not be possible. US was willing to make ‘Never Attack to Cuba Guarantee’ public in the same agreement and this was the best option for them. Including both no attack guarantee and removal of US Missiles in Turkey was obviously the worst option.
6.3. Republic of Cuba Cuba was relatively inactive in Missile Crisis. Although the missiles were settled in Cuba, negotiation was mostly between U.S. and Soviet Union. Moreover, some issues in the negotiation were completely unimportant for Cuba. Military attack was obviously the most important issue for Fidel Castro and his government. The second important issue was Quarantine and embargo, and the Missiles in Cuba was the third important issue. Public Announcement and U.S. Missiles in Cuba had no importance for Cuba.
6.3.1 US Military Attack to Cuba U.S.-backed exiles tried to invade Cuba, just a year before Missile Crisis. And it was known that U.S. didn’t want to let Fidel Castro govern Cuba. Therefore, a military attack by U.S. to Cuba seemed very likely. This was also the reason that Castro created better relations with Soviet Union and let them place missiles in Cuba.
Taking a guarantee that U.S. would never attack to Cuba was the best option for Cuba Government. The worst option clearly was that US would attack Missile setups immediately and invade Cuba. Even though it is not preferred, a military attack by US that only aims Soviet Missiles was slightly better for Cuba. Finally, the option that US gives no guarantee was better than any military attack.
6.3.2 Quarantine and Embargo Besides ongoing embargo, Cuba faced the physical defensive blockade by U.S., and it would create terrible consequences for Cuba in long term.
The best option for Cuba was to deal with no blockade or embargo. Additionally, dealing only with embargo was still better than quarantine. And keeping both embargo and quarantine was the worst option.
17
6.3.3 Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba Soviet missile setups in Cuba was both a risk and an opportunity for government. Since they gave a power to Cuba against U.S. by creating a threat; but at the same time, a considerable risk of a military attack, and even an invasion, by U.S. arose.
Despite the risk it created, keeping missile setups was the best option for Cuba. Removal by Soviet Union decision, was the worst option because it gave no authority to Cuba government in the negotiation. Removal by Cuba government was slightly better, since although it would present a powerful perception for Cuba, Soviet Union would not be satisfied in this case and relations between Soviet Union and Cuba would go breakdown. Removal after some time was the better option in removal cases.
7. Negotiation Analysis with BATNA Method 7.1 BATNA of United States The priority of U.S. was avoiding a possible nuclear war. But in negotiation scope, almost all agreements would be better than nuclear war. Moreover, nuclear war was not a direct negotiation issue, it could be a possible result. Therefore, nuclear war could not be BATNA for U.S.
The clearest thing for U.S. was that they were not willing to accept any agreement without removal of the missiles in Cuba. This was the most important issue for the security and the most important safety measure that U.S. had to implement immediately.
As a result, Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba can be set as the BATNA of U.S. To determine the BATNA on the point scale, weight of ‘Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba’ issue is used. Consequently, the BATNA of U.S. is set as 55 points.
7.2. BATNA of Soviet Union Soviet Union was the side that started crisis by placing nuclear missiles in Cuba. Unlike the U.S. government, Soviet Union government didn’t focus on a single point, they were expecting to get an agreement that covers different issues. Thus, instead of setting one certain issue as the BATNA, considering issues that Soviet Union government perceived more important would be a better approach.
18
Even though Soviet Union placed the missiles in the first place, they were still willing to accept to remove missiles in Cuba. An important condition on removal was that Soviet Union wanted to do it on their own, instead of Cuba. U.S. missiles in Turkey, was the issue that U.S. government brought to the table. But it was not a priority for determining BATNA of Soviet Union.
Soviet Union wanted U.S. to withdraw the quarantine on Cuba immediately, but embargo was not urgent issue that can affect the disagreement point. As the most important issue for Soviet Union, guarantee that U.S. will never attack to Cuba was the most important option that affects the BATNA directly. Finally, public announcement was considered as an unimportant issue by Soviet Union and it didn’t have any effect on BATNA.
As the result, BATNA of Soviet Union was built considering the least options that Soviet Union government was willing to accept. These options were ‘Removal by Soviet Union’ in the issue of ‘Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba’, ‘Only Embargo’ in the issue of ‘Quarantine and Embargo on Cuba’, and ‘Never Military Attack’ in the issue of ‘US Military Attack to Cuba’. ‘U.S. Missiles in Turkey’ and ‘Public Announcement’ issues were not considered while determining the BATNA, because they were not important enough to affect BATNA. Determination of BATNA of Soviet Union corresponds to 60 points.
7.3. BATNA of Cuba Cuba was the relatively inactive negotiation party and had very similar evaluations with Soviet Union. Even though missiles were set up on Cuban land, Cuba government did not install them itself. Therefore, whether missiles would be removed or not was not an issue that affects the BATNA directly. Similarly, U.S. Missiles in Turkey issue was not important for Cuba for both geographical and political reasons; not affecting the BATNA as well.
Quarantine and Embargo on Cuba was an important part of BATNA evaluation for Cuba Government. The option that could be acceptable for Cuba in this issue was dealing only with the embargo.
As the most important part of BATNA evaluation, Cuba government wanted to have the guarantee that U.S. will never attack to Cuba option in ‘US Military Attack to Cuba’ issue, but the least acceptable option was that U.S. would give no guarantee about military attack. Finally, ‘Public Announcement’ issue had no affect or importance on BATNA evaluation of Cuba. Considering the least acceptable options for Cuba, BATNA of Cuba corresponds to 50 points. 19
8. Discussion and Conclusion The DANSS software is a tool to present negotiations in a structured manner to analyze the efficiency in negotiation processes. (DANSS, 2017) Issues, options and parties’ priorities has been entered to software a graphical and tabular evaluation of the negotiation has been generated.
8.1. DANSS Results Cuban Missile Crisis is a 3-sided negotiation, even though Cuba was inactive. On the other hand, Cuba and Soviet Union was on together against U.S.. Therefore, the results must be interpreted for two cases: U.S.-Soviet Union and U.S.-Cuba. The actual agreement consists of following options for the issues, and the corresponding points for the negotiation parties. U.S.
Soviet Union
Cuba
1
Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba
55
20
20
a
Removal by Soviet Union
55
10
0
2
U.S. Missiles in Turkey
15
15
0
b
Removed after 6 months
5
10
0
3
Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba
10
20
30
c
Only Embargo
7
10
20
4
US Military Attack to Cuba
10
40
50
a
Never
0
40
50
5
Public Announcement
10
5
0
10
3
0
77
73
70
55
60
50
Soviet Union Missiles and Peace in a
Cuba
BATNA
Table II- Evaluation matrix including results and BATNA’s
20
8.1.1. U.S.-Soviet Union
Figure I: DANSS Software Results for U.S.- Soviet Union
The actual agreement is not on the efficient frontier, although it is very close to it. Looking through the way to achieve the closest point on the efficient frontier, it is seen that only one tradeoff between two sides which covers two issues could have been enough.
If negotiation parties had agreed on keeping U.S. Missiles in Turkey, instead of removing them in 6 months, (2. issue; option ‘c’ instead of option ‘b’) and withdrawing both embargo and quarantine on Cuba, instead of keeping embargo (3. issue; option ‘a’ instead of option ‘c’) the actual result would be on the efficient frontier. Because U.S. brought the issue of U.S. Missiles in Turkey, Kennedy and his team should have suggested this tradeoff.
21
8.1.2. U.S.-Cuba
Figure II: DANSS Software Results for U.S.- Cuba
The actual agreement is not on the efficient frontier in U.S.-Cuba case as well. But in this case, there are two possible agreements that includes at least as many points as the actual agreement for both sides. The efficient point that is marked with blue is the same efficient agreement which is concluded on U.S.-Soviet Union graph. Additionally, the other efficient point that is marked with grey is only capable of increasing the point of U.S.. Thus, the efficient point that is marked with blue could have been better for both sides.
To achieve blue efficient point, the same tradeoff which is explained U.S.-Soviet Union results is required. If negotiation parties had agreed on keeping U.S. Missiles in Turkey, instead of removing them in 6 months, (2. issue; option ‘c’ instead of option ‘b’) and withdrawing both embargo and quarantine on Cuba, instead of keeping embargo (3. issue; option ‘a’ instead of option ‘c’) the actual result would be on the efficient frontier.
As the result, the following agreement is likely to provide better results for all negotiation parties, increasing payoffs of U.S. and Cuba, and keeping payoff of Soviet Union as it was.
22
U.S.
Soviet Union Cuba
1
Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba
55
20
20
a
Removal by Soviet Union
55
10
0
2
U.S. Missiles in Turkey
15
15
0
b
Retained permanently
15
0
0
3
Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba
10
20
30
c
No Embargo or Defensive Blockade
0
20
30
4
U.S. Military Attack to Cuba
10
40
50
a
Never
0
40
50
5
Public Announcement
10
5
0
10
3
0
80
73
80
55
60
50
Soviet Union Missiles and Peace in a
Cuba
BATNA
Table III- Evaluation matrix including results and BATNA’s
8.3. Reasons for Inefficient Results The representatives of each party carried a major responsibility as the matter of the lives of millions living in both continents. There were some odds that hinder the achievement of the optimal result. First of all, there was an incredible time pressure. Because U.S. wanted to close the deal before installation of missile setups was completed, and the installation process was estimated to take 13 days. Therefore, time pressure can be a reason that causes inaccurate evaluations of options for negotiation parties
Second, for U.S. side, there was an obvious conflict inside which is between army and President Kennedy about the military attack to Cuba. While army representatives that military attack was the best option, President Kennedy didn’t want to approve it. 23
Third, characteristics of leaders affected the results. Especially, Khrushchev was known as a person who loses his temper. This might cause Soviet Union to make sudden and wrong choices during negotiation. In addition, Kennedy and Khrushchev are completely different characters and this makes the communication and agreement hard to achieve.
The final and probably the most important reason was communication. The main communication ways were letters and unofficial representatives of negotiation parties. Thus, negotiation process neither fast nor clear for all sides. As the result, lack and inefficiency of communication triggered inefficient agreement.
Despite all the odds, the crisis lasted in thirteen days from the beginning. Through the negotiations, win-win settlement has been achieved and the world peace has been preserved.
24
References Allison, G. (2012). The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50. Atomcentral. (June, 2017). The Cold War Retrieved from: http://www.atomcentral.com/thecold-war.aspx BBC 2015. Cuba timeline-A chronology of key events (June, 2017) Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/mobile/world/americas/country_profiles/1203355.stm Biography. (June, 2017). Leon Trotsky Retrieved from: https://www.biography.com/people/leontrotsky-9510793 Britannica. (2017, June). Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/event/Berlin-crisis-of-1961 Britannica. (2017, June). Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/biography/FulgencioBatista Britannica. (2017, June). Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Retrieved from: https://www.britannica.com/place/Soviet-Union#toc614785main, Burns J./Sorenson G. J./Goethals G. R. Sage Publications 2004. Encyclopedia of Leadership Butts E./Schwartz J.R. 2005. Fidel Castro pg.nr 20 Lerner Publications Company CIA World Fact Book. (2017, June). The World Fact Book: Central Asia-Russia Retrieved from:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-worldfactbook/geos/print_rs.html Coleman, D. (2017). Historyinpieces.com. Retrieved from http://historyinpieces.com/research/meetings-excomm-executive-committee-nationalsecurity-council DANSS software Decision and Negotiation System 2017 https://www.danss.ovgu.de/ Dur P./Gilcrease C. 2002. US Diplomacy and the Downfall of a Cuban Dictator: Machado in 1933 Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X02006417 Fagen, R. R. (1978). Cuba and The Soviet Union. The Wilson Quartely, 69-78. Fram M. The Motherland of Elephants 2015. pg. nr. 93 Fursenko A./Naftali T. (2006) Khrushcev’s Cold War The Inside Story of an American Advesary 2006, W W Norton & Co Inc (1997) Gonzalez, S. (2002). The Nuclear Deception: Nikita Khrushchev and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Guzman T. A. 2015. Cuba Pre-1959: The Rise and Fall of a U.S. Backed Dictator with Links to the Mob Retrieved from: http://www.globalresearch.ca/cuba-pre-1959-the-rise-and-fallof-a-u-s-backed-dictator-with-links-to-the-mob/5464738), v
History. (2017, June). www.history.com. Retrieved from http://www.history.com/topics/coldwar/bay-of-pigs-invasion Independent. (2011, June 2). Retrieved from http://www.independent.co.uk/artsentertainment/books/vienna-1961-when-cold-war-tensions-came-to-the-boil2292795.html JFK Presidential Library and Museum. (2017, July). Retrieved from https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/Life-of-John-F-Kennedy.aspx JFK Presidential Library and Musem. (2017). JFK Library. Retrieved from https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/Cuban-Missile-Crisis.aspx JFK Presidential Library and Museum Department of State Telegram Transmitting Letter From Chairman Khrushchev to President Kennedy, October 26, 1962 (2017, June) Retrieved from: http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct26/doc4.html Lamrani S. 2013. The Economic War Against Cuba: A Historical and Legal Perspective on the U.S. Blockade. NYU Press. Library of Congress. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/archives/sovi.html NASA. (July, 2017) United States-Soviet Space Cooperation during the Cold War Retrieved from: https://www.nasa.gov/50th/50th_magazine/coldWarCoOp.html Authors: Sagdeev R., Eisenhower S. National Security Archive The George Washington University 1995. Dobrynin’s Cable to the Soviet Foreign Ministry, 27 October 1962 (2017, July) (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/moment.htm) Novack G. writing as “William F. Warde” 1961. (2017, June) From Lenin to Khrushchev Retrieved from: https://www.marxists.org/archive/novack/works/1961/x04.htm Office of the Historian - U.S. Department of State. (2017, June). Retrieved from https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/berlin-crises Peterson, T. G. (1994). Contesting Castro: The United States and the Triumph of the Cuban Revolution. Paterson T.G. Kennedy's Quest for Victory : American Foreign Policy, 1961-1963. Oxford University Press, 1989. Richard E. Welch, J. (1985). Response to Revolution: The United States and the Cuban Revolution, 1959-1961. The University of North Carolina Press. Roches, A. M. (2015). After October: An Examination of John F. Kennedy’s Foreign Policy after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Canada. Roeschley, J. K. (2011). Nikita Khrushchev, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Aftermath. Constructing the Past: Vol 12. vi
The Guardian. (2011, October 24). Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/24/berlin-crisis-standoff-checkpointcharlie The Office of the Historian. (2017, July). The Berlin Crisis, 1958–1961 Retrieved from: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/berlin-crises
vii
Negotiation Analysis of Cuban Missile Crisis Negotiation Analysis Seminar Supervised by Prof. Dr. Matthias Raith & M. Sc. Charlott Menke
Summer Term 2017
Authors:
Ayça Sabah
217221
[email protected]
Özgür Erol
217021
[email protected]
Date of submission: 07/08/2017
i
Table of Contents
List of abbreviations
iii
Abstract
iv
1. Introduction
1
3. Negotiation Parties
3
3.1 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
3
3.2 United States of America
5
3.3 Republic of Cuba
6
4. Background of Negotiations: Relations between parties
8
4.1 U.S. - Soviet Union Relations
8
4.2 U.S. - Cuba Relations
9
4.3 Soviet Union - Cuba Relations
10
6. Issue Evaluations of Parties
13
6.1. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
13
6.2. United States of America
15
6.3. Republic of Cuba
17
7. Negotiation Analysis with BATNA Method
18
8. Discussion and Conclusion
20
References
v
ii
List of abbreviations BATNA Best Alternative to the Negotiated Agreement DANSS Decision and Negotiation System EX-COMM The Executive Committee of the National Security Council NASA National Aeronautics and Space istration NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization U.S. United States of America
iii
Abstract In October 1962, world was in the edge of a nuclear war due to the reconnaissance of Soviet nuclear missiles placement in Cuba by an American U-2 spy plane. The competition between Soviet Union and United States of America was in the hottest period on the nuclear arms race. Soviet Union claimed that the missile placement is for the defense of Cuba and the Soviet territories in case of possible attack. However, United States refused to accept this argument and declared the missiles as offensive weapons, contrary to the warnings given to Soviet Union earlier. Menacing toned negotiations has been held between parties by the representatives John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. This seminar paper gives an overview of the negotiation analysis between parties, aiming to review the efficiency of the result of the negotiation. At the beginning, negotiation parties and the background of relations has been given. An evaluation matrix has been drawn up that focuses on the conflicts and the interest of parties. Subsequently, the analysis was carried out by weighting the respective focus areas. Through the evaluation matrix and the application of the negotiation methodology "Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement” (BATNA), results have been placed on the efficiency plane by using the Decision and Negotiation System (DANSS) software. Results showed that both parties have a high level of satisfaction through the issues accepted. Finally, possible reasons for not achieving the efficiency frontier has been given.
iv
1. Introduction After the World War II, Soviet Union has become the principal adversary of the United States (hereafter referred to as U.S.) with an intense competition on power. Both parties were showing off their strengths at the earliest opportunity through developments in production, technology or science. In 1962, this struggle on power was about to cause a nuclear war. Soviet Union’s plan was secretly placing the nuclear missiles in Republic of Cuba (hereafter referred to as Cuba) for defense purposes against U.S. or to keep as a display of power in the future. It has been known that Soviets was ing Cuba with armaments to use in defense of the island before the crisis. In 1962, Soviet Union came up with an offer to place the missiles on the island to defend Castro’s regime when there is a need. (Fursenko A./Naftali T., 2006) This was an offer that can not be rejected by Castro since after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, U.S. might carry out a second attack.
After the events become evident, U.S. felt threatened and immediately started to debate on possible actions against the Soviets. During the EX-COMM (The Executive Committee of the National Security Council) meetings, John F. Kennedy was under the pressure of his advisors suggestions in favor of a military attack or invasion where the Soviets were ready to use the nuclear missiles in defense of Cuba.
The representatives of each party were encumbered with a major responsibility of the lives of millions living in both continents. Although threat was a part of almost all of the dialogs, both parties aimed to avoid from an active nuclear contest. In further sections, it will be revealed the effect of the background of the negotiations by presenting the history and relations between parties.
1
2. Timeline October 14 - U.S. reconnaissance planes fly over Cuba October 15 - Evidence of the site preparation and Soviet nuclear missile placement has been photographed October 16 - EX-COMM meetings begin: Kennedy’s advisors debate over the possible actions October 17 - U.S. Military starts to head south to be prepared for a possible attack October 18 - Yet unrevealing the crisis; Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko states that any Soviet aid is purely defensive after being reminded by Kennedy that the offensive weapon supply to Cuba would not be acceptable October 20 - During EX-COMM meetings, potential actions of U.S. are determined as: quarantine on the delivery of the armaments, attack on missile sites and invasion October 21 - No guarantee can be given by U.S. air forces on the 100% destruction of the missiles during in a possible attack against Cuba October 22 - Kennedy’s writes his first letter to Khrushchev and publicly announces the quarantine. States that at all cost, U.S. is determined to remove the threat October 23 - U.S. naval fleet place around the island of Cuba, Soviet submarines threaten the quarantine October 24 - Khrushchev replies Kennedy stating that the threat on Soviets and Cuba is unacceptable and missiles are only for defensive purposes October 25 - Soviets accused with false assurance during the United Nations meeting, some Soviet freighters turn back before facing the quarantine October 26 - John Scali, ABC News reporter is approached by Aleksandr Fomin, Soviet embassy staff, in return of removal of missiles; non-invasion of Cuba should be guaranteed in addition to the removal of quarantine. Right after Khrushchev writes in his letter the same demands October 27 - A second letter from Khrushchev, demanding the U.S. missile displacement in Turkey, Robert Kennedy unofficially meets Soviet representatives to accept deal in silent October 28 - Radio Moscow announces the removal of missiles in exchange for removing the quarantine and a guarantee that the U.S. will never invade Cuba
2
3. Negotiation Parties 3.1 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the Soviet Union or Soviets, had its origins in 1917 with the October Revolution leaded by Vladimir Lenin as successor to the Russian Empire of tsar. The revolution started with the riots in major cities during the World War I when Russian Army was not strong enough to dominate over. (CIA World Fact Book, 2017) After civil war era, in 1921 Lenin’s ers succeeded eliminating opponents first in Russia and following in Transcaucasia (divided in 1936 into Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia), Belarus and Ukraine. In 1922 Soviet Union has been established first with this four Soviet Republics and until 1940 in chronological order Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Estonia, Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania followed the constitution. Until the end of it’s existence in year 1991, Soviet Union was constituted with farther autonomous republics, provinces and districts in addition keeping the hegemony on the satellite socialist republics. (Britannica, 2017)
Soviet revolution aimed to adapt the Marxist ideology based on democratic and social control of lands and means of production by the proletariat. Lenin addressed the economic substance of socialism through providing high living standards to socialist countries better than capitalists and the necessity of an international socialist revolution to sustain the Soviet regime. After Lenin’s death in 1924, Joseph Stalin became the leader of Soviet Union and adapted a nationally limited socialism in practice. (Warde W. F., 1961) Soviet Union developed heavily in industry in this era. In Stalin's regime, the opposition was silenced and dominated with cultural purges, given supreme punishments or life imprisonment throughout the army and government. Leon Trotsky as a strong opponent, a revolutionist alongside with Lenin has been exiled during this period and later found murdered. (Biography, 2017)
During the World War II, invaded the Soviet Union in spite of the Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact signed between Hitler and Stalin in year 1939. With the counterattack of Soviets, Berlin captured in May 1945 by Soviet Union, leading the victory against and starting competition with the United States about the interest on Berlin. After the World War II Soviet Union increased the influence in Eastern Europe with satellite socialist republics in Poland, Czechoslovakia, East , Bulgaria and Romania. (Britannica, 2017) The victory of the war lead the Soviet Union to emerge as a global power and the principal adversary of the United States. (CIA World Fact Book, 2017)
3
During the Cold War era (1947-1991) Soviet Union and United States were in an endless competition in of production, technology and science. In the year 1945 United States had its first atomic explosion aiming to shorten the war era and gaining the sole possession eliminating Soviets. Four year later in 1949 Soviet Union exploded its first atomic bomb. This ended the U.S. owned victory in nuclear armaments field and launched the Cold War.
In 1953 after Stalin’s death Georgi Malenkov became prime minister. This year he announced that Soviet Union has its first hydrogen bomb (which has greater destructive power than the atomic bomb), only one year after United States has tested its own hydrogen bomb. (Atomcentral, 2017) In 1955 Nikolay Bulganin, an ally of the following premier Nikita Khrushchev became prime minister. As Soviets focused on the rocket science as their crucial military assets, the developments lead a success both in army and also in the space race by launching the first artificial earth satellite, Sputnik, to the space through a intercontinental ballistic missile in 1957. This success had a big impact on United States and started the space race by the constitution of NASA. (NASA, 2017)
In 1958 Khrushchev replaced Bulganin defeating a coup attempt led by Malenkov and became prime minister. Khrushchev was the son of a coal miner family. He was active in politics by ing socialist movement after revolution and became Communist Party member in year 1929. He had a key role in the victory of Stalingrad as political commissar and was in the inner circle of Stalin during his politic life before his death. Despite that Khrushchev’s leadership consisted the heavy criticism on Stalin, he reaffirmed and formalized Stalin’s doctrines that dissent Lenin’s socialist principals and class struggle. (Warde W. F., 1961)
According to his son Sergei Khrushchev states in an interview record, he was a calculated person. He had the image of being very emotional and he liked to use this to threaten the people. He is known by once taking his shoe off to brandish at the United Nations meeting. He is also known by his words “We will show you Kuzka's mother!” to President Nixon in year 1959. This can be interpreted as “We'll show you who's boss!” (Fram M., 2015)
Khrushchev attended meetings with Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy, and unlike Stalin in 1959, during his tour of the United States, he announced his desire of easing the relations between the West and the Soviet Union. In the meantime, Khrushchev also showed his commitment to the socialism to the Soviet conservatives. In 1960 a U-2 reconnaissance aircraft had been detected and 4
shot down in Soviet territory by Soviet air defense troops. After this Khrushchev cancelled a summit meeting with President Eisenhower to demonstrate national prestige. Khrushchev demanded the western sectors in Berlin to be incorporated with East . When this rejected and with the increasing number of migration to the West from East, he approved the construction of Berlin wall in 1961. (The Office, 2017) In the same year Soviet astronaut Yuri Gagarin headed the moon and became the first human in space. In 1962 Cuban missile crisis erupted with the reconnaissance of the Soviet missiles placement works in Cuba, 90 miles away from the U.S border.
3.2 United States of America United States of America declared independence in 1776 and recognized in 1783. Between 1775 and 1783, thirteen colonies won the War of Independence and became independent from Great Britain. George Washington was the first president of U.S. and he served between 1789 and 1797. (www.usa.gov, 2017)
U.S. involved in many wars including Vietnam War, Korean War, World War I, and World War II. Moreover, Soviet Union and U.S. was on the same side during World War II. After World War II, cold war between U.S. and Soviet Union began and lasted until 1991. (www.usa.gov, 2017) During Cuban Missile Crisis, U.S. side was led by President of U.S. Government John Fitzgerald Kennedy, commonly known as JFK.
He was born in United States in 1917, in Massachusetts. Afterwards, he went to Harvard University and graduated in 1940. Soon after his graduation, he ed the navy, with his older brother and assigned to a patrol torpedo boat at South Pacific as the Commander with Lieutenant grade. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)
During the World War II, his boat was destroyed but he managed to survive with most of his crew. After he came back from his Navy assignment, he was awarded a medal by U.S. Army. But during World War II, his older brother died in a mission when his plane blew up. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017) His father was a diplomat and served as U.S. Ambassador to England. His father’s job made him interested in politics. Moreover, because of the loss of his older brother in war affected him to change his decisions about his future, and he decided to start a political career. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)
5
He was elected to Congress in Massachusetts in 1946, and to U.S. Senate in 1952. In November 1960, as the candidate of Democratic Party, he won the elections and became the youngest president of U.S. at the age of 43. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017) JFK was the 35th President of United States, and served between 1961 and 1963, until he was tragically assassinated in November 1963.
He was the president when the unsuccessful attempt to invade Cuba was undertaken in 1961, also known as Bay of Pigs Invasion. Although this attempt was mostly planned by previous president Eisenhower, this failure against Fidel Castro was perceived as lack of leadership ability of JFK and inadequacy of his team. (History, 2017)
Another failure of him was in Vienna Summit, against President of Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev, who is also the leader of Soviet Union side in Cuban Missile Crisis. In Vienna Summit negotiations, JFK was bludgeoned by Khrushchev and afterwards Berlin Wall was constructed. (Independent, 2011)
Therefore, Cuban Missile Crisis was considerably sensitive and crucial for him to prove his leadership. His priority was to avoid nuclear war in Cuban Missile Crisis. Correspondingly, he also resisted to use military attack option to remove missiles in Cuba and tried to implement diplomatic ways instead. In later analysis about Cuban Missile Crisis, cautious attitude of JFK was stated as the main reason that the world escaped nuclear war. (Roches, 2015)
3.3 Republic of Cuba After the Cuban War of Independence from Spain ended in 1898, Cuba was ceded to the United States. Although being independent, United States had the right to intervene to the Cuban internal affairs due to the Platt Amendment. In 1906 United States occupied Cuba due to a rebellion act and Jose Miguel Gomez became the president after the resignation of current president Tomas Estrada Palma. During his regime, racism against Afro-Cubans raised and United States sent the troops back in Cuba to bear against the conflicts. In 1925 Gerado Machado became president and he developed the country in of mining industry, agriculture and public works. Later that year first Socialist Party founded in Cuba. (BBC, 2015)
6
Cuban economy was heavily dependent on sugar export. By 1928 sugar prices decreased and with the additional effect of 1929 Wall Street stock market crisis, economy went down. This lead a reaction from opposition that later turned into a civil war. In early 1933 Sumner Welles, the ambassador of United States visited Cuba demanding the cancelled constitutional guaranties back during Machado’s regime. After noncooperative position of Machado, Welles encouraged disaffection among politicians and army officers and this led the end of Machado’s regime with the coup, led by Sergeant Fulgencio Batista. (Dur P./Gilcrease C., 2002)
With the backing of Sumner Welles, Batista had a strong influence over numerous presidents until 1940. (Guzman T. A., 2015) In this period United States removed its rights to intervene in Cuba's internal affairs. Additionally, increased the quotas to import Cuban sugar with the raise of prices paid for sugar import in Cuban’s favor. Finally, Batista elected to the presidency for four years in 1940. During his presidency, he favored United States businesses and had the personal benefits. After end of the presidential period in 1944 he lived in Florida United States during his retirement with the 20 million dollars savings. During this term, he kept the influence on Cuban politics and president. Finally returned to Cuba for an election in 1952. (Butts E./Schwartz J.R., 2005)
Batista’s position during the elections stayed behind the other candidates, this led the cancellation of elections and a military coup planned by Batista to replace current president. Soon United States recognized the new Cuban government. During his regime Batista restrained the Cuban’s civil liberties and acted in favor of wealthy sugar plantations landowners. Although during 1950’s Cuban economy was already in steady decline period; during Batista’s regime the gap between rich and poor, corruption trends in government increased. The mafia from United States raised the control over drugs, gambling and prostitution in the island and corporations based on United States was favoring the government. (Guzman T. A., 2015)
Fidel Castro attempted an unsuccessful revolt against the Batista regime in 1953 and got arrested. After his release through a political amnesty, in 1956 he waged a guerrilla war deployed in Sierra Mountains with Ernesto Che Guevara. This spread across Cuba with the help of revolution volunteers. In year 1958 United States withdrew the military to regime and with a guerrilla army of 9000 leaded by Castro, in 1959 Batista was overthrown with a civil rebellion turned into Cuban Revolution. (BBC, 2015)
7
Fidel Castro was born in 1926 as a child of a wealthy sugar plantation owner. At the age of 14 “My good friend Roosevelt…” Castro wrote to the Franklin Roosevelt in his letter. He congratulated his presidency and demand a 10-dollar bill since he had never saw one. In postscript, he also noted his offer to show the biggest Cuban iron mines for possible use in ship construction. (Butts E./Schwartz J.R., 2005) In year 1945 he entered to the School of Law at the University of Havana and had a political focus on anti-imperialism and socialism.
Although Castro was strongly linked to the communists of the Popular Socialist Party, Cuba’s first provisional government was chosen from non-communists. Castro was a Marxist through economic and social policies. He assigned the lands to peasants, opened thousands of schools, provided free education and health care system. He also positioned a strict control on opposition by media and forced exiles of opponents. (Burns et al., 2004) The properties on the island belong to other nations namely Spain, , United Kingdom, Switzerland and United States expropriated subject to compensation for public good with an agrarian reform. All nations but United States agreed on compensation. (Lamrani S., 2013) After this nationalization process the relations with United States got worse and underpin a commercial embargo in 1961.
4. Background of Negotiations: Relations between parties 4.1 U.S. - Soviet Union Relations Relations between Unites States and Soviet Union includes many conflicts, even though these two sides were together during the World War II against Adolf Hitler. They cooperated to defeat Hitler’s Army and to end the war. But after the end of World War II, relations had been strained for a long time. From 1947, problematic affairs had retained until 1991, the time Soviet Union collapsed. Because these sides were superpowers of the world for that period, this chaotic atmosphere involved many other countries which were ed by either U.S. or Soviet Union. Rivalry between communism and capitalism were mostly called ‘Cold War’. (Library of Congress, 2017) Berlin Ultimatum In 1958 Soviet Union Leader Khrushchev gave an ultimatum to US, Great Britain and to withdraw their military forces from Berlin. This ultimatum was rejected by NATO and Khrushchev’s attempt was unsuccessful. (Office of the Historian - USA Department of State, 2017)
8
Berlin Crisis Many people from East were crossing to West by Berlin every day. These immigrations accumulated very quickly and reached up to 20% of East German population. Moreover, people who had immigrated were mostly educated and qualified. (Britannica, 2017) Therefore, Soviet Union wanted to stop immigrations making East German people incapable of crossing to the West without permission. Khrushchev demanded an agreement, and it was discussed in Vienna Summit but ended up without any agreement. Afterwards, in August 1961, Berlin Wall was built. (Britannica, 2017)
Tank Stand-off in Berlin In October 1961, a U.S. diplomat went to East Berlin. He was stopped by East German border guards and asked to show his port, and after he denied it saying that only Soviet officials could ask, he was sent back by border guards. (The Guardian, 2011) A U.S. Commander ordered military forces to escort the next time a U.S. diplomat visit East Berlin. But East border guards kept asking for port check. Correspondingly, U.S. tanks were sent to East Berlin border and stood 75 meters away as a threat. Soviet tanks were immediately sent to same location as well, and tanks stood facing each other for 16 hours. After communication between Kremlin and Washington, they agreed that there is no point to risk a conflict and tanks were pulled back one by one. (The Guardian, 2011)
4.2 U.S. - Cuba Relations By the year 1959 oil production, communication, mining and energy sectors were dominated, trade was relied upon United States as 65% of its imports and 74% of its exports. (Paterson T.G., 1989) United States owned investments did not have significant contributions to country itself since they were often derated on taxes and freed to repatriate their profits. (Lamrani S., 2013)
During anti Batista movement, United States ed Batista in military missions by providing armaments, infiltrating ive political groups and organizing an anticommunist police unit. (Paterson T.G., 1989) After Batista’s overthrown in 1958, he left the country with 424 million dollars bankruptcy. Cuba asked for a loan from United States to stabilize its currency. However, this request had been rejected. (Lamrani S., 2013) Despite the progress on housing, education, health care systems and decreased corruption, his revolution was disparaged and named as "betrayed revolution” by United States. (Paterson T.G., 1989) On August 1959 United States based electricity company cancelled its 15 million dollars worth investment on Cuba which was 9
planned to upgrade Cuban electrical grid. This was right after Cuba’s new government reduced the electricity price by thirty percent. Through the expropriation of the foreign assets in Cuba, compensations provided to the owners. Only United States rejected the compensation process. Thus in 1960 Cuban sugar quota has been cancelled and energy source delivery has been stopped. One year later in 1961 travel ban was imposed. This embargo later turned in to a total embargo including banning the drugs and food supplies. (Lamrani S., 2013)
Castro was planned to be murdered by several attempts-by United States but never succeed. In 1961 with the military of United States, Cuban exiles attempt an invasion at the Bay of Pigs. However, this attempt has been failed. Within this year Castro declared Cuba as a communist state and built strong the relations with the Soviet Union both politically and economically. Following that United States suspended Cuba from Organization of American States established for regional solidarity and cooperation among its member states, due to it’s adherence to MarxismLeninism. (BBC, 2015)
On October 14, 1962 an U-2 reconnaissance plane photographed the construction of missile sites in Cuba to place Soviet nuclear missiles. Kennedy was frustrated after this evidence snapping "He can't do that to me!…”. United States declared the missiles as offensive weapons, a great nuclear threat on its territories. (Paterson T.G., 1989)
4.3 Soviet Union - Cuba Relations Besides interactions during World War II, Soviet Union and Cuba did not have a significant diplomatic relation until Cuban Revolution. (Fagen, 1978) Batista’s Government was defeated by revolutionist rebels who are under the command of Fidel Castro and Che Guevara in 1959. This defeat led to Cuban Revolution and Fidel Castro’s became the President transforming the regime into communism. Afterwards, U.S. broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba when all U.S. businesses in Cuba was nationalized. (Fagen, 1978)
After the revolution, Soviet Union did not know about Fidel Castro. But by the time U.S. started an embargo on Cuba, government had to search for new markets to sustain the economy of the country. (Peterson, 1994)
10
New market search of Cuba let a trade start between two sides, and this help Cuba avoid economic crisis for many years.
When an official announcement by Fidel Castro stated that Cuba is a socialist republic, as the socialist superpower of the world, Soviet Union congratulated Cuba and diplomatic relations became closer. The U.S. threat on Cuba was obvious. To that end, defense of Cuba was interpreted as prestige matter for Soviet Union. (Richard E. Welch, 1985)
Fidel Castro let Soviet Union to install nuclear missiles in Cuba, and after spy aircrafts of U.S. realized the missile sites, the Cuban Missile Crisis was triggered. As the result of negotiation, defense of Cuba against U.S. was guaranteed. (Gonzalez, 2002)
After Cuban Missile Crisis, relations between Soviet Union and Cuba became even better. In 1963, Fidel Castro made a trip to Soviet Union to talk about construction projects in Cuba. In 1968, he politically ed the invasion of Czechoslovakia. And relations retained until the dissolution of Soviet Union in 1991. (Roeschley, 2011)
11
5. Evaluation (Pay-off) Matrix Evaluation matrix is being used to demonstrate the issues, options and parties comparative positions during the negotiation. It contains each parties name in the head of the columns, options headed by issues on the left column and numerical evaluation of each option by each party on the body of the table. In following table marked options are determined to calculate BATNA of each party.
1 a b c d
USSR Missiles in Cuba Removal by USSR Removal by Cuba Government Removed after somewhile Retained permenantly
2 USA Missiles in Turkey a Removed b Removed after 6 months c Retained permenantly
USA 55
USSR 20
Republic of Cuba 20
55 40 22 0
10 0 15 20
0 5 15 20
15
15
0
0 5 15
15 10 0
0 0 0
3 a b c d
Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba
10
20
30
No Embargo or Defensive Blockade Only Defensive Blockade Only Embargo Both Embargo and Defensive Blockade
0 4 7 10
20 5 10 0
30 10 20 0
4 a b c d
US Military Attack to Cuba
10
40
50
Never No promise Only for missile setups Attack for missile setups and invasion
0 10 5 7
40 20 10 0
50 30 10 0
5 a b c d e f g
Public Announcement
10
5
0
USSR Missiles and Peace in Cuba USSR Missiles and USA Missile USSR Missiles, USA Missiles, and Peace in Cuba USA Missiles and Peace in Cuba USA Missiles Removal USSR Missiles Removal Peace in Cuba
10 5 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 5 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Table I- Evaluation Matrix
12
6. Issue Evaluations of Parties In this section, issues and each parties’ interests will be discussed in detail.
6.1. Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 6.1.1 Missiles in Cuba As being the only communist state in the western hemisphere and as past experiences reveal, an invasion threat against the Cuba by United States was undeniable. This would also lead a threat of war against Soviet Union and any of the Soviet Republics as stated by Khrushchev. Beyond being just a strong war power, nuclear missiles are also giving a crucial power both to Soviet and Cuban governments during further negotiations and trades with United States which eventually had been used for quid pro quo removal of missiles in Turkey.
During the crisis resolution meetings Kennedy’s advisers came up with few explanations of Soviet placement of nuclear missiles. According to George Ball, Khrushchev wanted to trade the Cuban disarm in return of United States abandon its interest in Berlin, surrounded by communist East . Another explanation is that the Soviet Union was behind the United States in development of nuclear missiles and wanted to close the gap. This is as well the dominant view in scholarly literature is the nuclear missiles had a mission to strengthen Soviet’s position in the nuclear arms race with United States. (Paterson T.G., 1989) During the crisis, Khrushchev wrote in his letter to Kennedy “We affirm that the armaments which are in Cuba, regardless of the classification to which they may belong, are intended solely for defensive purposes, in order to secure the Republic of Cuba against the attack of an aggressor.”
6.1.2 Missiles in Turkey In year 1961 United States installed fifteen nuclear tipped missiles in right beside the Soviet Union borders, in Turkey, as a member county of NATO. Those missiles gave a strong war-power to United States to use in further direct attacks or to threaten Soviets to refrain spreading communism. Although its being known that United States has more missiles across the Europe, in last minute Khrushchev pointed out the missiles in Turkey and demanded the removal of missiles from Turkey. Later confirmed by his son Sergei Khrushchev this issue was not crucial for Soviet Union at all. This request can be interpreted as using as a quid pro quo and not to lose face in the deal and decreasing the possible threat of attack even it is an underachiever.
13
6.1.3 Quarantine on Cuba Khrushchev stated that the relation between two country related goods and products is only concern these two countries and no third party should be involved. The quarantine represents an ultimatum and clear threat that if the demands of United States unfilled, oppress is inevitable. He claimed United States is violating the international law with the quarantine as a piracy and doing this with the hatred of Cuban people and government. “What morality, what law can justify such an approach by the American Government to international affairs? No such morality or law can be found, because the actions of the United States with regard to Cuba constitute outright banditry or, if you like, the folly of degenerate imperialism.” Khrushchev wrote in his letter to Kennedy dated 26th of October,1962 “…Naturally we will not simply be bystanders with regard to piratical acts by American ships on the high seas. We will then be forced on our part to take the measures we consider necessary and adequate in order to protect our rights. We have everything necessary to do so.” he continued. (JFK Presidential Library and Museum, 2017)
6.1.4 U.S. Military attack to Cuba Khrushchev was decisive to prevent its ally Cuba from a possible attack by United States at all cost. In his letter to Kennedy he reminded the failed invasion of Bay of Pigs and yet destructive results on Cubans. Despite stating the terrifying results of possible disagreement, he clearly threatened back to attack in case of possible military attack against Cuba. This was the most important issue for the Soviet Union as they committed to the defense of Cuba while agreeing on the missile placement, additionally Cuba was a strong ally and the only communist state in western hemisphere.
Later in this letter he stated if United States stops the threat of any attack or invasion, Cuban government evidently would declare demobilization of the armaments. This statement later leaded a guarantee given by U.S. for Cuba’s peace.
6.1.5 Public Announcement During the unofficial meeting held on 27th October, 1962 between Robert Kennedy and Soviet ambassador Dobrynin, United States demanded the missiles in Turkey will be displaced if only this will not publicly announced due to reason such deployment decision by United States would damage the structure of NATO - since deployment was the decision of the NATO Council- United 14
States claimed that the withdrawal of missiles from Turkey will require few months, taking into the procedures within the NATO framework. This was reasonable enough and not so important for Khrushchev as he publicly announced the next day not a word about the missiles in Turkey, the missiles will be removed from Cuba, in return the quarantine will be ended and a guarantee has been given that Cuba will not be invaded. (National Security Archive, 1995)
6.2. United States of America After U.S. Government realized Soviet missile installation in Cuba, they decided to keep the situation quiet and established a committee with from different governmental organizations including U.S. Army to evaluate the situation. They called it ExComm which stands for Executive Committee of the National Security Council. (Coleman, 2017)
The most important priority for U.S. was of course to avoid nuclear war, since the missile installation created very sensitive circumstance which could easily end as Nuclear War. But this was not a negotiation issue for any sides, because it would have been the result in case there was no agreement. Therefore, evaluation of them depended on the issues covered by negotiation: Soviet Missiles in Cuba, U.S. Missiles in Turkey, Quarantine on Cuba, U.S. Military Attack to Cuba and Public Announcement.
6.2.1. Missiles in Cuba As the incident that creates crisis, the most important issue for U.S. was Soviet missiles in Cuba. Since it was an obvious threat for the country, U.S. wanted those missiles to be removed immediately. They were not willing to accept any result of negotiation which did not include removal of those missiles. Although it would provide much lower satisfaction, they were also willing to accept the removal of Soviet Missiles after some time, such as 6 months later. Furthermore, to compensate this removal, U.S. government brought another issue to the table: U.S. Missiles in Turkey. (Coleman, 2017)
6.2.2. Missiles in Turkey U.S. missiles in Turkey were already installed before Cuban Missile Crisis. By the time U.S. realized the missile installation in Cuba, their missiles in Turkey were already there. Not making any progress about the removal of Soviet Missiles in Cuba, U.S. government created a new issue for negotiation by proposing that they could remove missiles in Turkey. Thus, retaining these missiles were the best option for U.S., but they were also willing remove them. But the important 15
point was that U.S. Government didn’t want to do it at the same time with removal of Soviet Missiles. Because they were considered to be overwhelmed by Soviet Union and Cuba in prior crisis. So, to preserve their political reputation, U.S. proposed to remove the missiles in Turkey after six months, and this was an acceptable option for U.S.. (Allison, 2012)
6.2.3. Quarantine on Cuba U.S. applied an embargo on Cuba before Missile Crisis start. After ExComm decision, they also started to place defensive blockade to prevent anymore military was shipped to Cuba by Soviet Union. Therefore, both embargo and defensive blockade, so-called quarantine, were issues in Cuban Missile Crisis negotiation. Best option for U.S. was retaining both embargo and defensive quarantine. But they were willing to accept to withdraw defensive blockade in case Soviet missiles were removed. This means to keep the situation as it was before Missile Crisis, only with embargo. Furthermore, U.S. preferred keeping only embargo than keeping only defensive blockade, because defensive blockades carried more risk, cost and effort for them. And finally, withdrawing both embargo and defensive blockade was the least satisfying option.
6.2.4. U.S. Military Attack to Cuba The main objective of U.S. when considering the military attack was to defuse Soviet Missiles in Cuba. But this move was likely to bring an inevitable need to invade Cuba afterwards, because keeping everything under control might have been too difficult without invasion. So, military attack and invasion afterwards was a relatively good option for U.S. But Soviet Union created another option and wanted to include the guarantee that US will never make a military attack to Cuba, which became the worst option for U.S. since it would also be valid for any future crisis. Correspondingly, not attacking to Cuba immediately, but providing no guarantee about military attack either was the best option for U.S. in this issue.
6.2.5. Public Announcement U.S. already had defeats in prior crisis with Soviet Union and Cuba such as Berlin Crisis which ended up in Berlin Wall construction and Bay of Pigs Invasion attempt which ended up that Cuba took U.S.-backed exiles and U.S. Soldiers. As a result, U.S. Government had to make this agreement look like a diplomatic victory. To do so, they wanted to exclude removal of U.S. missiles in Turkey and making another agreement for it which was kept as a secret for 25 years. (John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Musem, 2017) But the agreement also had to cover a mutual trade to be reasonable for all sides. A public announcement only covers sacrifices of one 16
side would not be possible. US was willing to make ‘Never Attack to Cuba Guarantee’ public in the same agreement and this was the best option for them. Including both no attack guarantee and removal of US Missiles in Turkey was obviously the worst option.
6.3. Republic of Cuba Cuba was relatively inactive in Missile Crisis. Although the missiles were settled in Cuba, negotiation was mostly between U.S. and Soviet Union. Moreover, some issues in the negotiation were completely unimportant for Cuba. Military attack was obviously the most important issue for Fidel Castro and his government. The second important issue was Quarantine and embargo, and the Missiles in Cuba was the third important issue. Public Announcement and U.S. Missiles in Cuba had no importance for Cuba.
6.3.1 US Military Attack to Cuba U.S.-backed exiles tried to invade Cuba, just a year before Missile Crisis. And it was known that U.S. didn’t want to let Fidel Castro govern Cuba. Therefore, a military attack by U.S. to Cuba seemed very likely. This was also the reason that Castro created better relations with Soviet Union and let them place missiles in Cuba.
Taking a guarantee that U.S. would never attack to Cuba was the best option for Cuba Government. The worst option clearly was that US would attack Missile setups immediately and invade Cuba. Even though it is not preferred, a military attack by US that only aims Soviet Missiles was slightly better for Cuba. Finally, the option that US gives no guarantee was better than any military attack.
6.3.2 Quarantine and Embargo Besides ongoing embargo, Cuba faced the physical defensive blockade by U.S., and it would create terrible consequences for Cuba in long term.
The best option for Cuba was to deal with no blockade or embargo. Additionally, dealing only with embargo was still better than quarantine. And keeping both embargo and quarantine was the worst option.
17
6.3.3 Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba Soviet missile setups in Cuba was both a risk and an opportunity for government. Since they gave a power to Cuba against U.S. by creating a threat; but at the same time, a considerable risk of a military attack, and even an invasion, by U.S. arose.
Despite the risk it created, keeping missile setups was the best option for Cuba. Removal by Soviet Union decision, was the worst option because it gave no authority to Cuba government in the negotiation. Removal by Cuba government was slightly better, since although it would present a powerful perception for Cuba, Soviet Union would not be satisfied in this case and relations between Soviet Union and Cuba would go breakdown. Removal after some time was the better option in removal cases.
7. Negotiation Analysis with BATNA Method 7.1 BATNA of United States The priority of U.S. was avoiding a possible nuclear war. But in negotiation scope, almost all agreements would be better than nuclear war. Moreover, nuclear war was not a direct negotiation issue, it could be a possible result. Therefore, nuclear war could not be BATNA for U.S.
The clearest thing for U.S. was that they were not willing to accept any agreement without removal of the missiles in Cuba. This was the most important issue for the security and the most important safety measure that U.S. had to implement immediately.
As a result, Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba can be set as the BATNA of U.S. To determine the BATNA on the point scale, weight of ‘Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba’ issue is used. Consequently, the BATNA of U.S. is set as 55 points.
7.2. BATNA of Soviet Union Soviet Union was the side that started crisis by placing nuclear missiles in Cuba. Unlike the U.S. government, Soviet Union government didn’t focus on a single point, they were expecting to get an agreement that covers different issues. Thus, instead of setting one certain issue as the BATNA, considering issues that Soviet Union government perceived more important would be a better approach.
18
Even though Soviet Union placed the missiles in the first place, they were still willing to accept to remove missiles in Cuba. An important condition on removal was that Soviet Union wanted to do it on their own, instead of Cuba. U.S. missiles in Turkey, was the issue that U.S. government brought to the table. But it was not a priority for determining BATNA of Soviet Union.
Soviet Union wanted U.S. to withdraw the quarantine on Cuba immediately, but embargo was not urgent issue that can affect the disagreement point. As the most important issue for Soviet Union, guarantee that U.S. will never attack to Cuba was the most important option that affects the BATNA directly. Finally, public announcement was considered as an unimportant issue by Soviet Union and it didn’t have any effect on BATNA.
As the result, BATNA of Soviet Union was built considering the least options that Soviet Union government was willing to accept. These options were ‘Removal by Soviet Union’ in the issue of ‘Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba’, ‘Only Embargo’ in the issue of ‘Quarantine and Embargo on Cuba’, and ‘Never Military Attack’ in the issue of ‘US Military Attack to Cuba’. ‘U.S. Missiles in Turkey’ and ‘Public Announcement’ issues were not considered while determining the BATNA, because they were not important enough to affect BATNA. Determination of BATNA of Soviet Union corresponds to 60 points.
7.3. BATNA of Cuba Cuba was the relatively inactive negotiation party and had very similar evaluations with Soviet Union. Even though missiles were set up on Cuban land, Cuba government did not install them itself. Therefore, whether missiles would be removed or not was not an issue that affects the BATNA directly. Similarly, U.S. Missiles in Turkey issue was not important for Cuba for both geographical and political reasons; not affecting the BATNA as well.
Quarantine and Embargo on Cuba was an important part of BATNA evaluation for Cuba Government. The option that could be acceptable for Cuba in this issue was dealing only with the embargo.
As the most important part of BATNA evaluation, Cuba government wanted to have the guarantee that U.S. will never attack to Cuba option in ‘US Military Attack to Cuba’ issue, but the least acceptable option was that U.S. would give no guarantee about military attack. Finally, ‘Public Announcement’ issue had no affect or importance on BATNA evaluation of Cuba. Considering the least acceptable options for Cuba, BATNA of Cuba corresponds to 50 points. 19
8. Discussion and Conclusion The DANSS software is a tool to present negotiations in a structured manner to analyze the efficiency in negotiation processes. (DANSS, 2017) Issues, options and parties’ priorities has been entered to software a graphical and tabular evaluation of the negotiation has been generated.
8.1. DANSS Results Cuban Missile Crisis is a 3-sided negotiation, even though Cuba was inactive. On the other hand, Cuba and Soviet Union was on together against U.S.. Therefore, the results must be interpreted for two cases: U.S.-Soviet Union and U.S.-Cuba. The actual agreement consists of following options for the issues, and the corresponding points for the negotiation parties. U.S.
Soviet Union
Cuba
1
Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba
55
20
20
a
Removal by Soviet Union
55
10
0
2
U.S. Missiles in Turkey
15
15
0
b
Removed after 6 months
5
10
0
3
Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba
10
20
30
c
Only Embargo
7
10
20
4
US Military Attack to Cuba
10
40
50
a
Never
0
40
50
5
Public Announcement
10
5
0
10
3
0
77
73
70
55
60
50
Soviet Union Missiles and Peace in a
Cuba
BATNA
Table II- Evaluation matrix including results and BATNA’s
20
8.1.1. U.S.-Soviet Union
Figure I: DANSS Software Results for U.S.- Soviet Union
The actual agreement is not on the efficient frontier, although it is very close to it. Looking through the way to achieve the closest point on the efficient frontier, it is seen that only one tradeoff between two sides which covers two issues could have been enough.
If negotiation parties had agreed on keeping U.S. Missiles in Turkey, instead of removing them in 6 months, (2. issue; option ‘c’ instead of option ‘b’) and withdrawing both embargo and quarantine on Cuba, instead of keeping embargo (3. issue; option ‘a’ instead of option ‘c’) the actual result would be on the efficient frontier. Because U.S. brought the issue of U.S. Missiles in Turkey, Kennedy and his team should have suggested this tradeoff.
21
8.1.2. U.S.-Cuba
Figure II: DANSS Software Results for U.S.- Cuba
The actual agreement is not on the efficient frontier in U.S.-Cuba case as well. But in this case, there are two possible agreements that includes at least as many points as the actual agreement for both sides. The efficient point that is marked with blue is the same efficient agreement which is concluded on U.S.-Soviet Union graph. Additionally, the other efficient point that is marked with grey is only capable of increasing the point of U.S.. Thus, the efficient point that is marked with blue could have been better for both sides.
To achieve blue efficient point, the same tradeoff which is explained U.S.-Soviet Union results is required. If negotiation parties had agreed on keeping U.S. Missiles in Turkey, instead of removing them in 6 months, (2. issue; option ‘c’ instead of option ‘b’) and withdrawing both embargo and quarantine on Cuba, instead of keeping embargo (3. issue; option ‘a’ instead of option ‘c’) the actual result would be on the efficient frontier.
As the result, the following agreement is likely to provide better results for all negotiation parties, increasing payoffs of U.S. and Cuba, and keeping payoff of Soviet Union as it was.
22
U.S.
Soviet Union Cuba
1
Soviet Union Missiles in Cuba
55
20
20
a
Removal by Soviet Union
55
10
0
2
U.S. Missiles in Turkey
15
15
0
b
Retained permanently
15
0
0
3
Quarantine And Embargo on Cuba
10
20
30
c
No Embargo or Defensive Blockade
0
20
30
4
U.S. Military Attack to Cuba
10
40
50
a
Never
0
40
50
5
Public Announcement
10
5
0
10
3
0
80
73
80
55
60
50
Soviet Union Missiles and Peace in a
Cuba
BATNA
Table III- Evaluation matrix including results and BATNA’s
8.3. Reasons for Inefficient Results The representatives of each party carried a major responsibility as the matter of the lives of millions living in both continents. There were some odds that hinder the achievement of the optimal result. First of all, there was an incredible time pressure. Because U.S. wanted to close the deal before installation of missile setups was completed, and the installation process was estimated to take 13 days. Therefore, time pressure can be a reason that causes inaccurate evaluations of options for negotiation parties
Second, for U.S. side, there was an obvious conflict inside which is between army and President Kennedy about the military attack to Cuba. While army representatives that military attack was the best option, President Kennedy didn’t want to approve it. 23
Third, characteristics of leaders affected the results. Especially, Khrushchev was known as a person who loses his temper. This might cause Soviet Union to make sudden and wrong choices during negotiation. In addition, Kennedy and Khrushchev are completely different characters and this makes the communication and agreement hard to achieve.
The final and probably the most important reason was communication. The main communication ways were letters and unofficial representatives of negotiation parties. Thus, negotiation process neither fast nor clear for all sides. As the result, lack and inefficiency of communication triggered inefficient agreement.
Despite all the odds, the crisis lasted in thirteen days from the beginning. Through the negotiations, win-win settlement has been achieved and the world peace has been preserved.
24
References Allison, G. (2012). The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50. Atomcentral. (June, 2017). The Cold War Retrieved from: http://www.atomcentral.com/thecold-war.aspx BBC 2015. Cuba timeline-A chronology of key events (June, 2017) Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/mobile/world/americas/country_profiles/1203355.stm Biography. (June, 2017). Leon Trotsky Retrieved from: https://www.biography.com/people/leontrotsky-9510793 Britannica. (2017, June). Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/event/Berlin-crisis-of-1961 Britannica. (2017, June). Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/biography/FulgencioBatista Britannica. (2017, June). Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Retrieved from: https://www.britannica.com/place/Soviet-Union#toc614785main, Burns J./Sorenson G. J./Goethals G. R. Sage Publications 2004. Encyclopedia of Leadership Butts E./Schwartz J.R. 2005. Fidel Castro pg.nr 20 Lerner Publications Company CIA World Fact Book. (2017, June). The World Fact Book: Central Asia-Russia Retrieved from:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-worldfactbook/geos/print_rs.html Coleman, D. (2017). Historyinpieces.com. Retrieved from http://historyinpieces.com/research/meetings-excomm-executive-committee-nationalsecurity-council DANSS software Decision and Negotiation System 2017 https://www.danss.ovgu.de/ Dur P./Gilcrease C. 2002. US Diplomacy and the Downfall of a Cuban Dictator: Machado in 1933 Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X02006417 Fagen, R. R. (1978). Cuba and The Soviet Union. The Wilson Quartely, 69-78. Fram M. The Motherland of Elephants 2015. pg. nr. 93 Fursenko A./Naftali T. (2006) Khrushcev’s Cold War The Inside Story of an American Advesary 2006, W W Norton & Co Inc (1997) Gonzalez, S. (2002). The Nuclear Deception: Nikita Khrushchev and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Guzman T. A. 2015. Cuba Pre-1959: The Rise and Fall of a U.S. Backed Dictator with Links to the Mob Retrieved from: http://www.globalresearch.ca/cuba-pre-1959-the-rise-and-fallof-a-u-s-backed-dictator-with-links-to-the-mob/5464738), v
History. (2017, June). www.history.com. Retrieved from http://www.history.com/topics/coldwar/bay-of-pigs-invasion Independent. (2011, June 2). Retrieved from http://www.independent.co.uk/artsentertainment/books/vienna-1961-when-cold-war-tensions-came-to-the-boil2292795.html JFK Presidential Library and Museum. (2017, July). Retrieved from https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/Life-of-John-F-Kennedy.aspx JFK Presidential Library and Musem. (2017). JFK Library. Retrieved from https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/Cuban-Missile-Crisis.aspx JFK Presidential Library and Museum Department of State Telegram Transmitting Letter From Chairman Khrushchev to President Kennedy, October 26, 1962 (2017, June) Retrieved from: http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct26/doc4.html Lamrani S. 2013. The Economic War Against Cuba: A Historical and Legal Perspective on the U.S. Blockade. NYU Press. Library of Congress. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/archives/sovi.html NASA. (July, 2017) United States-Soviet Space Cooperation during the Cold War Retrieved from: https://www.nasa.gov/50th/50th_magazine/coldWarCoOp.html Authors: Sagdeev R., Eisenhower S. National Security Archive The George Washington University 1995. Dobrynin’s Cable to the Soviet Foreign Ministry, 27 October 1962 (2017, July) (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/moment.htm) Novack G. writing as “William F. Warde” 1961. (2017, June) From Lenin to Khrushchev Retrieved from: https://www.marxists.org/archive/novack/works/1961/x04.htm Office of the Historian - U.S. Department of State. (2017, June). Retrieved from https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/berlin-crises Peterson, T. G. (1994). Contesting Castro: The United States and the Triumph of the Cuban Revolution. Paterson T.G. Kennedy's Quest for Victory : American Foreign Policy, 1961-1963. Oxford University Press, 1989. Richard E. Welch, J. (1985). Response to Revolution: The United States and the Cuban Revolution, 1959-1961. The University of North Carolina Press. Roches, A. M. (2015). After October: An Examination of John F. Kennedy’s Foreign Policy after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Canada. Roeschley, J. K. (2011). Nikita Khrushchev, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Aftermath. Constructing the Past: Vol 12. vi
The Guardian. (2011, October 24). Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/24/berlin-crisis-standoff-checkpointcharlie The Office of the Historian. (2017, July). The Berlin Crisis, 1958–1961 Retrieved from: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/berlin-crises
vii
Related Documents c2h70
Missile Crisis Negotiation Case 6p91n
December 2019 48
Cuban Missile Crisis vg68
December 2019 30
Negotiation - Case Study s4s5r
August 2022 0
Harbor Co Negotiation Case 3l5nw
November 2019 87
Cuban Missile Crisis Political Cartoon Analysis 2u1a16
November 2019 119