165360499-2012-pumpkin-patch-case-study.pdf 6j6k65

How to use the NZICA template Welcome to the 2012 NZICA template case study. This case study is to help with the assessment of 90504 „prepare a report that analyses and interprets a company‟s financial report for external s‟. For version 3 of 90504 the standard allows teachers to assess students against a case study or an annual report. The questions (and suggested answers) provided in this pumpkin patch limited resource form the basis of a case study, and can be used as one. Our NZQA , who put together this case study for us, has suggested some techniques that you could use with students to help them engage with the wider aspects of the firm. They have also provided some suggested methods to help the students use the financial ratios effectively to make a decision about seeking employment with the firm or purchasing shares. You could: Brainstorm as a class using the headings (and the annual report) outlined in questions 1-7 of the non-financial section. Try and encourage students to ask: „what does this mean for our specified end- (shareholder/employee)?‟ Teachers may choose to focus on the end . Potential lenders may also be a topic of choice, if the focus is “expanding into a new market.” Conduct group or individual research to provide a story about the firm (based on questions 1-7 of the non-financial section), prior to reviewing the relevant data. Have students share their findings with the class. Groups could do a subsection each to create a depository of findings. Students should use the answers found to engage with the firm, and use specific trends and examples as the basis for their individual reports, as per the financial analysis (p.p.12-21). Please note: Teachers can provide students with relevant rations, as the standard doe s not require students to calculate these. The rations chosen by the author reflects the effects on the finances of decisions made by the firm given the NZ retail and global business environment (and the firm‟s past). Much of the latter commentaries regarding the financial analysis is carried on from earlier sections. Students should use the relevant notes to reinforce their opinion for the end-‟s decision.

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Pumpkin Patch Ltd. Analysis and interpretation of the 2011 Annual Report PLANNING TEMPLATE 1: NARRATIVE QUESTIONS Q1 What are the core business area(s) and geographic locations that Pumpkin Patch Ltd operates in? Pumpkin Patch Ltd is retail brand that was founded in 1990 and wholesales and retails children‘s clothing through its own stores in NZ, Australia, and UK and US (until mid-way through 2011) The clothing range it designs is known for high quality and encom es clothes that are resilient to children‘s activities. It is known for having a good ―fashion‖ brand image, and competes with other children‘s designer brands such as Witchery Kids, Levis Kids, flo, Motion, EllieB, fresh, Papoose, Le Bon, Elfwear, Osh Kosh (which is sold through Farmers, Smith & Caugheys etc.). In 2010 the launch of the brand, ―Charlie and Me‖, occurred and was seen as an opportunity for Pumpkin Patch Limited (PPL) to use its brand image to enter the ―everyday‖ market (that includes, in New Zealand, t&t, Cotton On for Kids, JK Kids gear, The Baby Factory, Kmart and the Warehouse) that encomes 75% of the global childrenswear sales. (Chairman‘s letter p.8, 2010) In the 2011 year, Charlie & Me had 11 stores open across Australasia and a dedicated onli ne trading website was created for this brand. Since balance day 2011, Pumpkin Patch has launched a new brand called Pumpkin Patch General, which is a part of PPL that sells non-clothing items for babies, nurseries and school aged children (and is signalled by the Chairperson‘s letter where she states “We are currently assessing a number of initiatives to leverage our existing online and supply chain capabilities. We hope to launch some of these in the coming year.”) (Chairman‘s letter p.9, 2011). Pumpkin Patch General is an online shop, currently. The target market for the brand has, historically, been middle-income parents and grandparents earners, and the growth of PPL since being listed has been based on the consistent growth of the economies in which it has operated throughout the 2000s. The company has historically performed well in all the markets it operated in except for the USA and the UK where the brand has been a consistent money loser for PPL shareholders. Simply put, 2011 has been a main departure from these foci. The past three years have been challenging as global market conditions, the capital intensive structure and restructures have had their impacts. There are 5 main revenue centres (p.11, 2011 Annual Report): Retail markets: Australia (51% - down 1% from 2010); New Zealand (15% - unchanged from 2010) UK (14% - unchanged from 2010) US (5% – to be closed in 2012 year) Wholesale/Direct(website) (14% - up 1% from 2010)

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Q2. What is Pumpkin Patch Ltd current strategy(s) and key point of difference in the target market? What is the current and future market potential for Pumpkin Patch Ltd? What influence has the global economic crisis appeared to have had on Pumpkin Patch Ltd in 2011? What specific areas? The organisation‘s strategy at the end of 2010, was to manage its assets and liabilities carefully, through ―balance sheet management‖ (p.08, 2010) and grow its brand in its 22 markets, in the midst of soft economic conditions. It aimed to do this in a number of phases. Throughout the 2011 year the firm faced a number of significant challenges that has led to it underperforming, and requiring a reassessment. These challenges include: volatile trading conditions in all markets natural disasters political unrest in the Middle East a high NZD exchange rate low inventory levels at the start of the which generated a poor 6 week trading period in August and September 2010 higher product costs driven mostly by cotton price increases new store opening costs From the annual report (and moving forward): 1. PPL announced that it is closing the 20 retail stores in the United States and are reviewing underperforming stores in the United Kingdom. The brand will continue to be sold in the United States through Wholesale and the growing online operation. The danger is that any gains in sales will be offset by the high NZD. 2. PPL reviewed its Head Office operation to ensure it better matched the new store network as it felt it was more appropriate given the challenging nature of global markets. Consequently, PPL recognised this $15.6m of non-recurring reorganisation costs (see note 4D, 2011 annual report, p. 63) 3. The growth of stores of 20 new stores in 2012 in Australia and NZ are near the 2010 target (22). Three quarters of these were Charlie & Me. The three Urban Angel stores (kids aged 8+) in NZ were re-branded as Charlie & Me. 4. PPL opened 3 new stores in 2012 in Ireland, and also, over that period, it analysed the underperforming stores in the United Kingdom. In the 2011 financial year recognised the losses regarding store assets and agreed that the number of leases of stores in the UK was onerous, especially as the austerity measures in the UK continue. With fourteen stores whose leases expire or have exit clauses falling in the 2012 financial year, stores were flagged for closure. Two outlet stores were closed between July 2011 and November 2011. In Jan 2012, the decision was made to close the UK. 5. In 2012 there is anticipated continued growth of the Pumpkin Patch and Charlie & Me online businesses. The websites are amongst the most visited children‘s product related websites in Australasia. Subscribers to the online newsletter receive a number of newsletters per week to give subscriber specials. 6. To leverage off this and its existing online capability PPL has generated the General brand. 7. The brand has been broadened in the past twelve months to integrate a wider target market – online, general, Charlie & Me (and consolidate the original brand).

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8. The brand itself in the Australasian markets remains very strong. From its investor relations website it states: Pumpkin Patch intends to continue increasing its sales and ea rnings by using strategies similar to those that it has successfully used during the past ten years. Pumpkin Patch's strategy is based around selling leading edge kids' fashion through a range of channels including its own retail stores, selected departme nt stores, wholesale distribution arrangements, the internet and via mail order catalogues. Through these avenues, Pumpkin Patch sees its key growth coming from the following: Continued development of its markets particularly in Australia. Continued expansion of overseas third party retailing through department stores in Australia, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, South Africa and Asia Continued expansion of online revenues through its websites in New Zealand, Australia, The United Kingdom, Ireland and The United States. Source: http://www.pumpkinpatch.biz/ourcompany_ourfuture.html

Q3

How is the company viewed by analysts?

PWC Cost of Capital Report March 2011: The cost of capital report by PWC shows that the returns expected by investors (debt and equity) in PPL (and the cost of finance for the company. The higher the cost, the greater the expected risk to investors. PPL has the highest WACC for the retail sector in the NZ market. NZ Retail Sector Listings

NZX Code

Briscoe Group Limited

BGR

11.0%

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited

HLG

9.8%

Kirkcaldie & Stains Limited

KRK

6.8%

Michael Hill International Limited

MHI

10.5%

Postie Plus Group Limited

PPG

7.8%

Pumpkin Patch Limited

PPL

11.5%

Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited

RBL

7.1%

Smith‘s City Group Limited

SCY

9.5%

The Colonial Motor Company Limited

CMO

6.5%

The Warehouse Group Limited

WHS

6.7%

Turners Auctions Limited

TUA

8.2%

Wakefield Health Limited

WFD

8.4%

Source: PWC Cost of capital report from pwc.co.nz/

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PWC WACC as at 31 March 2011

The possible external factors that also affect PPL‘s ability to grow their market potential : 1. The high rates of unemployment in its key markets: a. 6%+ in NZ; 9.5+% in the US; 7+%+ UK; and 4.5%+ Australia since early 2010 (The Australian unemployment figures can be recognised as artificially low, as the east coast – Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane has a higher unemployment rate than the booming mining industry towns and states – which are not the target market for PPL). Overall, this has meant that disposable income has been spent on ―essential items‖ rather than ―luxuries‖ 2. In NZ – increased GST 3. Increased costs of living (petrol), food, etc – that has moved middle income earners away from ― brands‖ towards ―functional‖. 4. The increased borrowing costs on the global market. 5. The increased exchange rate in NZ, which means that export earnings are counter -balanced by a high $NZ value. 6. The effects of the first Christchurch Earthquake in 2010 , the Japanese Tsunami, the Arab conflicts. 7. The continued downturn in Europe and the US in the post-GFC period Please note that these comments are solely the opinion of the author, and in no way represent the views held by NZICA. Additionally these comments do not constitute financial advice.

Other media reports from the last 8 months From Share investor Blogspot: Pumpkin Patch January 2012 “Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] shares have had a dire past 12 months, dropping from $1.65 in February 2011, hitting an all-time low of 58c in December and finishing up 7% to finish trading at 75c yesterday on news that the company are putting their UK division into voluntary istration. This is very good news for the company after 11 million or so in costs is stripped out of the comp any for the restructure. This is going to have a positive impact on the PPL share price. I think there could be some more share price weakness when the 1st half result is out in March because it will be a big loss so patience again will be the key to getti ng a better deal here. Of course the fortunes for the company will be better without the ongoing losses from the UK division and that will be cemented if their remaining Australasian stores start to perform better. A bigger boost will come if dividends are reinstated. I doubt whether this will happen in the half-year result out in March and is more likely to come in the result out in October. As I said above, be patient, the rise yesterday was on tiny volume so there will be more volatility in share price until some positive financial news comes out.

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Milford Asset Management (20/6/2011): (Source: http://milfordkiwisaver.co.nz/blog/pumpkin-patch-back-on-home-soil/) “Pumpkin Patch back on home soil Last week Pumpkin Patch updated earnings guidance as we ll as announcing that it was going to close the US operations and address the underperforming United Kingdom business. The earnings guidance was downgraded to $12m- $14m (from $16m – $18m previously), the downgrade was attributed to the continuing “challenging and volatile” conditions intensified by rising input costs. While most retailers have been finding it difficult at present, it has been especially treacherous for Australasian children‟s apparel retailers of late as the competition heats up with inter national brands venturing down under and depressed consumers staying away from shops. By closing the US operations Pumpkin Patch has decided that the bulk of its future opportunities are closer to home. Even though there are opportunities for Pumpkin Pat ch to further expand its footprint in Australia this will be difficult with the increasing level of competition. Pumpkin Patch needs to re -establish a niche position for itself and its brand lest it follow the path of The Warehouse, which capitulated in Australia only to focus on NZ and then lose market share to the evermore agile and energetic specialist retailers. We believe that for a company to continue to succeed in both international and domestic markets it needs to have strong management with interests firmly aligned to the shareholders‟ in addition to a solid strategic plan implemented by an independent board. The first cut is always the deepest and we ire people who are able to it they were wrong and move forward looking for the next opportunity. Hopefully, Pumpkin Patch is able to get back on track and reclaim their position as Australasia‟s premier children‟s apparel retailer.”

Brian Gaynor's NZ Herald Articles, Economy on 31 Mar 2012 Excerpt from “Retail success at home attracting investors” Some listed retailers have performed remarkably well in a difficult economic environment. This environment includes intense competition, rising property costs, the Christchurch earthquakes, competition from internet retailers and cautious consumers. Seven NZX listed retailers have made profit announcements covering the important Christmas period, Briscoe Group, Hallenstein Glasson and Michael Hill producing particularly good results … …Pumpkin Patch reported an ing loss of $30 million for the six mo nths to January 31. But when discontinued activities and reorganisation costs are excluded, the company had net earnings of $7.2 million compared with $8.6 million for the first half of its 2010/11 year. It is not paying a dividend as the group has debts of $70 million and only $3.3 million in cash. Pumpkin Patch is closing its United States and United Kingdom retail operations and newly appointed chief executive Neil Cowie said that as far as its continuing operations were concerned “gross margins were impacted by increased promotional activity and higher production costs, mostly cotton”. The children‟s clothing retailer expects Australia to remain challenging and no material improvement is expected in New Zealand in the short term. It will also be affected by the high New Zealand dollar but borrowings are expected to decrease to $50 million by year end.

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It is also forecasting reduced costs because of improved procurement processes, lower cotton prices and higher average import foreign exchange rates … …This is a rather cautious outlook but domestic listed retailers continue to attract investor interest because several companies, particularly Briscoe, Hallenstein Glasson and Michael Hill, are performing well in an extremely difficult and competitive environme nt. Listed retailers – Operating in a tough environment Company

Period Ended Sales* YOY change

Net Profit*

YOY change

Briscoe

29 Jan

243.9 +6.4%

17.2

+16.1%

Hallenstein Glasson

1 Feb

108.6 +7.9%

9.0

+26.5%

Kathmandu

31 Jan

146.7 +15.4%

6.0

(43.1%)

Michael Hill

31 Dec

288.8 +7.3%

26.3

+11.5%

Postie Plus

29 Jan

53.9

Pumpkin Patch

31 Jan

The Warehouse

29 Jan

(4.6%)

(0.8)

-

161.1 +17.4%

7.2

(16.7%)

937.9 +3.3%

46.7

(11.9%)

*$million (Source: http://milfordkiwisaver.co.nz/blog/retail-success-at-home-attracting-investors/)

ASB Securities March 2012: Forecasts (Source: https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/Quotes/ResearchMV.aspx?rstockCode=PPL NZ&stockCode=PPL&exchange=NZSE) GROWTH RATES

10yr

5yr

1yr

2yr Forecast

Sales

--

1.6%

-11.1%

--

Cash Flow

--

-168.1%

-122.0%

--

Earnings

--

-15.1%

-50.3%

10.8%

Dividends

--

-18.8%

-68.4%

41.4%

Book Value

--

-19.8%

-60.1%

--

Caveat: The global uncertainty that has plagued firms since August 2008 has continued, and the continued lack of predictability remains. There continue to be very few CEOs of listed NZ firms (that have significant export market expenses) that have been able to predict a specific amount of ―growth.

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Q4

What is the current shareholding mix of Pumpkin Patch Ltd? No of shares ‗11

No of shares ‗10

No of shares ‗09

% change 2010-11

34,176,107

38,945,342

37,058,329

-12%

20,000,000

20,000,000

20,000,000

0%

17,038,567 15,700,000

16,791,181 15,700,000

16,086,181 15,700,000

1% 0%

Maurice J Prendergast, Kerry D Prendergast and Stuart G Callender

9,620,000

10,620,000

10,620,000

-9%

Mark J Synnott, Sally R Synnott and The Gale Trustee Company Limited

9,500,000

9,500,000

10,000,000

0%

1,461,900

1,461,900

1,661,900

0%

1,537,547

1,342,304

1,357,186

15%

1,200,000

1,200,000

1,250,000

0%

1,411,627

857,217

945,268

65%

813,510 645,021 No info

813,510 781,142 759,469

686,649 940,051 838,022

0% -17% -

720,000

720,000

720,000

0%

635,000

635,000

-100%

536,575 511,168 510,289

603,967 511,168 510,289

264% 0% 0%

Shareholding changes New Zealand Central Securities Depository Limited Nigel P Smith and Wynyard Wood Trustee Services Limited JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited (45230 a/c) JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited (31098 a/c)

Gregory J Muir, Debra J Muir and Geoffrey A Lawrie FNZ Custodians Limited Bruce M Walkley, Deborah F Walkley, Nigel P Smith Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited Christine Conyngham Investment Custodial Services Limited Custodial Services Limited (3 a/c) Joanna Hickman, John A Callaghan, Kevin J Hickman and John W Ryder Brendon Thomas, Katrina Thomas, and John Turrall NZPT Custodians (Grosvenor) Limited Adrastea Limited Kay Gillard

1,952,006 511,168 510,289

In 2011, there had not been a significant change to the major shareholders. However the Board had some significant shifts in the post Balance Day dates. “Pumpkin Patch Ltd. has announced that Chrissy Conyngham [Group General Manager at the time of publishing of the annual report] has informed the Board of Directors that she has decided not to seek re-election at the Annual Shareholders Meeting on 22 November 2011 and that she wishes to focus solely on her executive role with the business. Chrissy Conyngham commented „We are currently working on a number of ex citing new opportunities across our international markets and I believe it is best that I am 100% focused on my executive role helping the business make the most of those opportunities. While I have enjoyed contributing at Board level the commitment of bei ng a director has been considerable. The time is right for me to focus my efforts towards the design and branding areas of the business which are key to our long term success. This decision will give me more time to work

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with Neil and the wider executive team developing and executing strategies that will take us into the future‟.” (Source: http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/NZX/51855/Director_announcement.htm )

The most significant shift from 2010 to 2011 was the purchase of shares by NZPT Custodians (Grosvenor) Limited, which is a company that has a significant stake in a number of NZ firms, such as NZ Steel and Tube. PPL may have represented a ―bargain‖. However, in the latter part of 2011, the share price went from $1.15 to $0.58c. nd

The 2 most significant shift in the share portfolio was that Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited was issued 150,000 shares and has grown its stake by 65%. This is the company‘s employee share scheme. Maurice Prendergast and Sally Synnott are Directors and shareholders of Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited which acts as Trustee for various employee share ownership plans. (p.35, 2011)

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Q5: Remuneration trends from 2009 to 2011 for the highest earners:

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$

2011

2010

2009

2008

100 - 110

12

10

10

12

110 - 120

11

7

2

9

120 - 130

6

7

7

7

130 - 140

5

8

11

7

140 - 150

2

3

8

2

150 - 160

8

4

3

3

160 - 170

3

1

2

4

170 - 180

2

-

1

1

180 - 190

1

1

2

2

190 - 200

2

2

2

4

200 - 210

-

3

1

210 - 220

2

1

2

1

230 - 240

-

1

4

1

240 - 250

1

-

-

-

250 - 260

1

-

-

-

260 - 270

3

2

-

1

280 - 290

-

2

-

1

290 - 300

2

-

-

-

300 - 310

1

-

-

-

310 - 320

1

1

1

-

320 - 330

-

1

-

1

330 - 340

1

-

1

1

340- 350

-

1

1

-

360 - 370

1

-

2

-

380 – 390

-

1

1

-

400 - 410

-

1

-

-

440 - 450

-

1

-

-

450 - 460

-

-

1

1

490 - 500

-

1

-

-

520 - 530

1

-

-

-

570 - 580

1

-

-

-

580 - 590

-

1

-

-

600 - 610 Total > $100K

-

1

-

-

67

61

62

58

AS at the end of the financial year, there had been a growth in the number of people earning $100K+. But given the results in the financial sections (below), there has been a major shift in wages policy. At the 2011 AGM for Shareholders announced that PPL had “shaved $130,000 or 35% off directors‟ fees as its board warns hard times are continuing at the children's wear retailer .‟ The Chairperson, Jane Freeman, has decreased her fee to $85,000 (from $128K) Additionally, PPL decreased its fees to the other 4 (non -executive) directors to $50k each. ‗The move follows a decision to freeze salaries at the Pumpkin Patch head office this year and cut 55 jobs at across the company. “Some hard decisions were made in 2011 and we believe some more hard decisions will need to be made in 2012,” Ms Freeman said. (Italics from NBR at: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pumpkin-patch-cuts-directors-fees-warnshard-times-ahead-gb-104852)

Q6 What are the strengths of the management team at Pumpkin Patch Ltd and how will these potentially benefit the company in the coming periods? There have to be some questions asked about the strength of the management team in the company over the last few years that culminated in an entry into the United States in 2005 to test the market. PPL continued to roll out US stores even though the existing stores were not succeeding. In 2009 the company made a decision to abandon 20 US stores that were incurring heavy losses and kept 15 that they saw as promising. In 2009/10 the company even opened an additional 5 stores in that market. From the website, it states that “Pumpkin Patch's strong management team has the expertise and capabilities to ensure that the complex apparel, design, manufacture and retail business that is Pumpkin Patch will continue to grow. The Pumpkin Patch Board of Directors has extensive retail, apparel and corporate experience which complements the skills of the management team.” (Source: http://www.pumpkinpatch.biz/ourcompany_ourpeople.html) Management‘s exposure to global retail environments (especially the US and UK) is unclear here, and questionable – especially in a downturn of the magnitude the retail industry has suffered over the past three years (in the high-end brand) may be the reason for the lack of awareness shown in the face of the 2008-11 periods. Store based retailing has been suffering globally over the last 4 years, especially in the United States. Management should (potentially) have seen that after three years of attempting to infiltrate the US market, in 2009 it should have closed all operations. It has taken more than 2 years to decide to close the entire operation. This has led to another bout of ―discontinuing operations‖ expenditure and losses. The costs have been significant. Moving forward, the replacement and the resignation of key directors including CEO Maurice Prendergast may turn around the result of failed expansion plans which have cost investors hundreds of millions in lost share value and close to $50 million off the book value.

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The January 2012 announcement about the closure of UK retail stores has further dented the expansion undertaken over the past six years. The focus seems to be clearly focused on NZ, Australia and wholesaling to US direct and department stores (like the high end brands trade in NZ) and cyberspace. Please note that these are solely the opinion of the author, and in no way represent the views held by NZICA. Additionally these comments do not constitute management advice.

Q7

What are the benefits of being an employee at PPL?

1. Up to the financial year ended 31 July 2011, the opportunity to earn well in the Head office is well publicised. However, the only people who lost their jobs in the last financial year (2011) were at head office in Auckland, direct store management (a growth sector) and workers in the United States. 2. Pumpkin Patch Nominees Limited (as per Q. 4 above) acts as a Trustee for the Company‘s employee share purchase plans. The Company advances the Trustee an interest free loan to enable it to purchase the shares issued to it for the plans. At regular intervals the Trustee offers shares to those permanent employees of the Company with in excess of six months continuous service. The shares are offered at a discount to market price. Employees purchasing shares are provided financial assistance on an interest free basis, repayable in regular instalments. Dividends paid on allocated shares during the qualifying period are paid to employees. 3. From PPL website; Pumpkin Patch states that “family life and strong family values are integral to the wellbeing of the people and therefore our Company. Family-friendly work policies encourage flexibility, adaptability and balance. People are rewarded for loyalty and long service, and families with young children are ed with in -house crèche facilities or childcare subsidies. Pumpkin Patch employs approximately 2,800 people. Approximately 66% of Pumpkin Patch's staff work part time. When hiring staff Pumpkin Patch endeavours to identify people who share its vision and who are ionate about kids wear and committed to meeting, and exceeding, customers' expectations of excellent service. One of Pumpkin Patch's core philosophies is integrity - within the Pumpkin Patch team, with suppliers, and towards customers. This integrity is intended to create a platform of trust and commi tment, and a foundation for all of Pumpkin Patch's business relationships. Pumpkin Patch recognises that employee retention and succession planning are vital to a successful organisation. As such the Company has always ensured that key employees with long service have been rewarded with equity interests in the Company and the Company has established a number of employee share schemes which have allowed employees to share in our success.

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The team at Pumpkin Patch has demonstrated its ability to grow th e business over successive years. The design team has a consistent history of producing exceptional ranges that are at the forefront of children's fashion.” (Source: http://www.pumpkinpatch.biz/ourcompany_ourpeople.html)

PUMPKIN PATCH LTD FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION Please note that these figures have been generated from a number of sources, and have been kindly reproduced here. There may be other ratios not referred to that would also be an acceptable method to use in analysing the information. Therefore, be sure to state any assumptions. PROFITABILITY (INCLUDING DISCONTINUED) 31/07/2011

31/07/2010

31/07/2009

62.8%

61.4%

57.5%

- 0.05%

6.68%

4.50%

Gross Margin

GP/Sales

Net Margin

NPAT/Sales

Return on Assets

EBIT/Total Assets

-0.9%

14.3%

9.9%

NPAT/Equity

-5.8%

31.5%

20.9%

Return on Equity

Note that all discussions are based on Net (loss)/profit after tax and before other Comprehensive Income.

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Profitability summary and conclusions The results coming from Charlie & Me [were] pleasing and gave the board encouragement about that specific brand‘s potential (Chairperson‘s report p.11, 2011). From the segment report (page 65) of the report 1% growth in sales in the Wholesale/Direct segment translates to a change of revenue from $53.22 Million to $54.14 Million. This has provided $10 M of the profit to the firm . Overall, the Group profits tell two stories, (including and excluding the proposed closure of the US stores). Excluding the closures, the firm has had a positive Net profit after tax of more than $15 Million. This is, however, STILL a decrease of $10 Million. The NPAT ing for the discontinued/ items resulted in a loss of $1.9 million. Overall group revenues slid further in 2011, from $362 Million to $338 Million. This has resulted in a two year decrease from $412 (2009) of $74 Million. In 2010, the result was attributed to the ‘softening of the general retail environment in the second half of the year ‘ (CEO comments, 2010). In 2011, the Chairperson stated that this year has been ―one of the most challenging years the Company has ever encountered. Not only did we face difficult trading conditions in all our markets and a continuation of the higher New Zealand dollar, we also had to deal with a number of other challenges such as a series of natural disasters and civil unrest in key markets around the world.” (p.8, 2011) The strongest sales sector of the organisation, Australia, also had subdued results as the year progressed. This, combined with the Queensland floods resu lted in a $144.8 Million decrease; down 8% on 2010. The majority of the decline occurred in the first half which was down 14% on the same period last year following the poor August and September trading period. AUD sales in the second half of the year were down 1% when compared to the same period last year. Therefore, the 2009 losses attributed to discontinuing operations (when the US stores were initially re-organised) had been turned around in 2010, but these have now been wiped away by a finalised discontinuing the US operations. At the end of the financial year 2011, a number of issues regarding profitability may need to be asked: 1. In the annual report, a number of key issues in 2009 (and 2011) were classified as ―nonrecurring‘ items. If these occur in two out of three years – is it still reasonable to class them as ‗non-recurring‘? (If one looks at the UK announcement in Jan 2012 – flagged in the Chairperson‘s report where she stated, “we continue to develop strategies for the United Kingdom stores which are currently facing very challenging trading conditions as Europe as a whole deals with some major economic issues”, it seems that there may be some more ‗discontinued/non-recurring items‘ in the 2012 annual report). In January 2012, this was confirmed. 2. The high New Zealand dollar has been attributed to the significant effect on the results from the wholesale/direct markets (p.8) 3. The Australian sector was the strongest in the 2010 year, but in 2011, consumers ‗tightened their belts‘. 4. The NZICA toolkit suggested in 2011 that moving forward: “if the markets do not rebound and if another re-organisation (say in UK, or full closure of the US were to occur) in 2010-11 This would have severe effects on PPL‟s income statements again. The company is not set up in this manner.” This seems to have come to fruition. Is the firm now set up to keep growing?

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EFFICIENCY 31/07/2011*

31/07/2010

31/07/2009

Inventory Turnover (times)

COS/Inventory

4.01

5.35

5.14

Fixed Asset Turnover (times)

Net Sales/Fixed Assets (PPE)

3.94

5.21

5.75

s Receivable Turnover (times)

Sales/Acc Rec

18.6 x

18.43 x

21.08 x

19.63 days

19.80 days

17.31 days

s Receivable (days)

365/Acc Rec. Turnover

*Including discontinued stores Note that s Receivable Turnover (tim es) calculation ignores non-current s Receivable.

Efficiency summary and conclusions Overall the inventory management has flowed alongside the decrease in sales revenue. There has been a 20+% deterioration in inventory turnover. This may due to th e need to re-stock after an inventory shortage in the initial stages of the financial year and the decrease in sales revenue. The new branding for Charlie & Me would also have contributed to the slow -down in inventory management. The more realistic option is that the overseas sales have translated poorly to the reports due to high NZD. The s Receivable management is not significant in itself, given that there would be very little in the form of AR (other than delays of payments from credit card co mpanies to PPL). The AR might being offered to customers of its wholesale division stores. This may be a sign of the times, where customers of the wholesale division are offered extended credit . The new markets may be afforded longer repayment plans to increase the overall sales output, and ensure that a partnership ensues.

LIQUIDITY AND THE BALANCE SHEET 31/07/2011

31/07/2010

31/07 /2009

Current ratio

CA/CL

1.28

1.42

1.99

Quick ratio

(CA-Inv)/CL

0.25

0.35

0.51

Net working capital ratio

(CA-CL)/Total Assets

0.12

0.17

0.31

+140%

-44.7%

N/A

% Change in cash

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Liquidity summary and the Balance Sheet Summary The 2010 decrease has continued to slide in 2011. This is a decreasing and worsening trend for Pumpkin Patch Ltd. In the Current Assets section, there has been a significant growth, on balance day, of inventory valued at an additional $13 M. The cash position has also grown, but this is, due in the main to a large loan to offset the forward exchange contracts (below) . Linking the cash position to the cash flow statement, one sees the $10M is as a result of cash borrowings of $38,000,00 in the 2011 year

The Current Liabilities is a mix of positive and negative, as t he overdraft organised in 2010 has been reduced by $5M to $20 Million (from $25M). The bulk of the $19.5 Million increase in CL (and consequent decrease in the ratios above) is due to the value of the forward foreign exchange contracts due to expire in the year. Exporting companies like PPL cannot ignore the impact of cu rrency, changes on cash flows, profitability, and their asset and liability position. No company is immune —the cash received from exporting is affected by the relationship between the currency used by the customer to pay and the currency in which the cost of providing the product or service is denominated. A forward contract allows PPL to arrange for delivery (or sale) of a specific amount of currency on a specified future date, at the current market price. The past two decades has seen a significant incr ease in the types and complexity of financial instruments offered in the market place. s of financial statements need detailed information on financial assets, liabilities and equity instruments in order to better understand the risk profile of the entity. Because the effects are as material (significant) as they are to the PPL‘s balance sheet, they need to be reported. Because Forward FOREX contracts fix the exchange rate over different periods to try and reduce the volatility of exchange rate fluctuations, PPL has these liabilities over the current & non-current period. From the CEO report , post-balance-date there was ―significant exchange rate volatility which led to an improvement in the after tax value of those derivatives and a corresponding increase in total shareholders‘ funds of around $21m (based on exchange rates in early October.)‖ Post Balance Date, measurements reduce the liability by $21M. The reason for recognising the liability on Balance Day is that IAS requires that the contract is priced at fair value on the date the contract is entered into and remeasured to fair value (on Balance Date).

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CASH FLOW RATIOS 31/07/2011*

31/07/2010

31/07/2009**

-$15,846

$8,775

$48,551

-0.03

0.21

0.61

-0.01

0.05

0.15

Net cash flow from operating activities

-$4,574

$20,801

$60,577

Net cash flow from investing activities

-$17,144

-$13,379

-$11,796

Net cash flow from financing activities

$24,803**

-$15,041

-$51,880

$3,085

-$7,619

$62,901

-$60,970

-$26,055

-$18,436

4.54 times

0.81 times

0.75 times

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Net Cash from Operating— Capital Expenditures

Cash Debt Coverage

Net Cash from Operating Average Total Liabilities

Cash Return on Sales

Net Cash from Operating Net Sales

Net cash flow for period Net bank debt at period end Cashflow gearing ratio

Total Bank Debt : EBITDA

* Including discontinued store provisions ** Excluding discontinued stores *** Includes Cash Borrowings of $38,000,00 in 2011 **** Note that the FCF calculations are based on PPE only

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Cashflow summary and conclusions Free cash flow (FCF) FCF represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. (Investopedia) Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Without cash, it's tough to develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt. It was flagged in the 2011 iteration of this analysis “the 2010 decrease in FCF for PPL was concerning as the strategy is focused on new stores, and growth, but there may be insufficient free cash available for this, without going to the market for more equity or more debt. The cash debt coverage is also concerning for PPL, as there are still liabilities in the balance sheet (they are now simply current). The cash generated is only sufficient to cover 20% of the average liabilities in the balance sheet.” Cash flow analysis: Overall cash in the bank balance increased $3 M, which resulted in a closing bank balance of $10 M.. The main reason for the increase in the is the amount of the loan ($38,000,000) The growth of the loan book, and the path of red cash flow figures in operations, investments is concerning, but the debt has been locked in until December 2013, so there is 2.5 years of opportunity for rebounding from this. The loans have funded the new stores, and also the discontinued operations, but the Cash Debt Coverage and Cash Return on Sales amounts, on balance day, may deter the bank to afford any further credit. The CEO states that ―Based on current trading conditions and expected working capital and capital expenditure requirements net bank debt is expected to be between $40m and $50m at July 2012.‖ Cash from Financing: The major inflow was the loan, but this is offset by $13M in dividends. The shareholders have received some rewards for being loyal to the firm, especially in light of the erosion of the share price. It was predicted in 2011 that ―Given the large decrease in bank balance and weak liquid ratio, it might be unlikely that Pumpkin Patch can maintain this level of dividend pay -outs in the future, although it does have a history of this”. This has been confirmed in the interim 2012 year, as PPL is ‗tightening its belts‘. With limited cash available for the dividends, and the fair value of the derivatives having an impact on the balance sheet, it is suggested that PPL would have been unable to fulfil the tests surrounding dividend payments.

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STABILITY 31/07/2011* Interest Cover (times)

EBIT/Interest

Debt to Equity

Total Liabilities/Equity

Debt to Assets

Total Liabilities/Total Assets

Long term debt: Equity

Long term liabilities/Equity

31/07/2010

31/07/2009

6.51

16.02

5.66

532%

120.8%

112.2%

0.84

0.55

0.53

2.45

0.29

0.46

Stability summary and conclusions The balance sheet has dropped significantly in value and the D:E rati o is initially alarming. Liability has a book value 5 times greater than the value of equity! The main contributors to this are the growth in the loan, (as per cash flows) and the forward contracts. This is where the finance director locks in today‘s currency/exchange rates by paying an additional /‖insurance‖ to ensure company doesn‘t have to pay more if exchange rate changes. As Pumpkin Patch is a global business which trades in US$, hedging tries to ensure better cash management in a global environment. The interest times cover ratio is quite significant has deteriorated significantly, that demonstrates that PPL is still able to manage its debt to lenders, and has returned it back to near -2009 levels. The firm has to have certain management in place to ensure that payments to lenders are kept up with. Prom Page 98 (note 26c ): There are a number of external bank covenants in place relating to debt facilities. These covenants are calculated monthly and reported to the bank quarterly. The principal convenants relating to capital management are the earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) fixed cover charge ratio and the cashflow gearing ratio. There have been no breaches of these covenants for the current or prior period. The Long term debt to equity, is due to restructuring lending back to long-term loan in addition revolving credit overdraft. Bank facilities are provided under the of an ANZ National Bank Limited Revolving Advances Facility Agreement dated 24 June 2009. The longer term bank facilities outlined in this agreement expire in December 2013.

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INVESTMENT RETURN 31/07/2011 31/07/2010 31/07/2009 Basic EPS (cents/share)*

NPAT/no. of shares

-1.12

15.3

1.10

Price Earnings ratio

Market Price**/EPS

-9.5

12.03

-14.4

Dividend ratio

Dividend paid p.s./EPS

0.58

5.90

- 0.09

* Negative EPS numbers are usually reported as "not applicable" for periods in which a company reported a loss. Investors buying a company with a negative P/E should be aware that they are buying a share of a company that has been losing money per share. Note that the EPS is based on NPAT before ‗other comprehensive income‘ and using the year end number of shares. ** Market Price As at 31/7/2011

Investment return summary and conclusions These figures seem to reflect the comments by the market analysts.

Limitations of just using an annual report: Auditing engagements have changed significantly in the face of company financial in the past few years. The following three pages relate to this. Please note the shift from the purpose of the audit report and the clarity of what the Auditor‘s responsibilities were from 2009-2011. Additionally the purpose of the audit and the breadth of the audit is very specific now in 2011. It is important to note that none of the comments made outside the financial report audited.

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